Newbie question about blocking bets

[Riposte]

How can we ensure a villain makes a mistake by using a blocking bet on the river, if he is chasing a flush draw for example? Let's use this hand as an example... where we are putting the villain on a flush draw. This hand is entirely fictional...






Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($29.20)
UTG ($21.75)
MP ($15.48)
Hero ($27.35)
Button ($44.40)
SB ($21.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, Button calls $1, blinds fold.

Flop: ($2.10) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, Button calls $2.

Turn: ($6.10) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, Button calls $5.

River: ($16.10) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, Button calls $8.

Final Pot: $32.10



On the turn, the villain called a $5 bet. Since his flush draw has 4:1 odds to complete on the river, he needs to win a $20 pot to justify his $5 turn call.

On the river, the pot is $16... what are we supposed to do? Check/fold? If we bet more than $3, the opponent makes a correct turn call... am I missing something here?

With the call on the river, my guess is he's on 2pr, probably KJ, and not the flush draw, and he's just as worried that you're on the flush draw.

Or he could be on some suited connectors that are going to pay off, but in that case he should raise you on the river for value.

[Riposte]

Argh... just ignore what you think he has. Just assume he's on the flush draw with A3 /images/graemlins/club.gif. The hand is totally fake, I just typed it up from thin air.

[jjacky]

yes, you missed something. if he was on a flush draw on the turn, he needs to get 4:1 on his money. if he wins a 20$ pot, he gets only 3:1 since 5$ was the money he called with on the turn. that means he needs to win a 20$ pot excluding the money he put in on the turn and river.

[Riposte]

Ok so if I block the river like I did with half pot, $8, the pot becomes $24... he's still making a mistake because the pot would have to be over $25 to make his turn call correct?

With my turn and river bets and excluding villain's $5 turn call, the pot is $19... so he's making a mistake? Sorry for the convoluted post.

[jjacky]

if he has a flush draw and you don't call a raise (he definitely made a mistake by not raising with a flush /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) and he doesn't have any aditional equity, he made a mistake by calling the turn - correct.
but that doesn't necessarily mean, that the blocking bet is correct.

[soah]

You must consider your equity against his entire range of hands. Sometimes you will lose money. That is unavoidable. For each time that your opponent has a flush, how often will he have a hand which you beat (which will pay off a river bet)?

Suppose you lose $8 on the river when your hand is no good (your opponent raises and you fold) but you gain $8 each time he calls you with KQ, etc. How much do you gain or lose ON AVERAGE from your river bet?

Compare this to what happens if you check the river... most of the time your opponent will check behind with weakish hands and you gain nothing, but he will bet the hands that beat you. Are you confident enough to fold though?

Until you can estimate reasonable probabilities for what your opponent might hold and what he will do with each of those hands, you cannot determine for sure what is best. All I can do is tell you that you must look at the big picture, and not get caught up in individual hands.

[Skuzzy]

I may be way off but I think the way you play the river does not detract from the fact that he played incorrectly on both the flop and turn. 'When' he called your flop bet he was making an error because he was not getting pot odds to draw, he compounded this error on the turn. At this point he has bet 8 into a 16 pot. For simplicity say the turn pot was 10, and you bet the pot and he called making a 30 pot. He needs 22 (the remaining 2.1 from 4.1:1) from you now on the river. All this is approximate and doesn't account for the fact he may hit and lose or he may make a weaker hand and call you on the river anyway.


I also think it's hard to consider this situation independantly from the 'reality'. In reality villain has a range of hands and not 'always a draw'. Even if the only other hands he played this way were AK and KJ you have a much more complex problem. There's even variety in what you can expect from the flush draws, the Ace would push the river for example, a little flush might just call and the 9/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif may have raised you already.


Having sat here and typed this reponse I can honestly conclude I have no idea how to answer your question. My 'feeling' is that any hand you beat will probably check behind or fold if you bet on this river so a blocking bet gains you nothing.

[Riposte]

[ QUOTE ]
Having sat here and typed this reponse I can honestly conclude I have no idea how to answer your question. My 'feeling' is that any hand you beat will probably check behind or fold if you bet on this river so a blocking bet gains you nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, AK will call, KQ, 22, A3o will call, you'd be surprised.

[Riposte]

Thanks for the reply Soah.


[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you lose $8 on the river when your hand is no good (your opponent raises and you fold) but you gain $8 each time he calls you with KQ, etc. How much do you gain or lose ON AVERAGE from your river bet?


[/ QUOTE ]


Can I think of it like, losing $8 75% of the time and winning $24 25% of the time? So it's 0 EV?

[soah]

If your hand is good you win the contents of the pot regardless of your river action. Getting called for $8 wins you an additional $8, not $24. Although this assumes your opponent will never steal the pot from you when you check.

But I have a very hard time believing that you lose 75% of the time. The guys that call full pot on the turn on a draw are the same ones that call down with just a pair. If five people saw the flop it would be different, but against a single opponent you run into a pair far more often than you run into a monster.

[mjm]

[ QUOTE ]
I may be way off but I think the way you play the river does not detract from the fact that he played incorrectly on both the flop and turn. 'When' he called your flop bet he was making an error because he was not getting pot odds to draw, he compounded this error on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite, he would be correct to make the 2 calls if he is getting the correct implied odds. For that to be the case he would have to be confident (and correct) to believe that you will pay off a large bet on the river if the flush hits. In the example given this is extremely unlikely given that his odds of making the flush are actually 5/1 not 4/1 on the river (there are already four clubs out). He would need you to put $9 into the pot on the river if his flush hits (before discounting for the fact that his flush may not be good, if you held a higher flush or hit a boat)

The difficulty is that as someone else said the player who calls your turn bet with a flush draw is also the player who calls down with one pair. So you have a tricky decision on the river, I would put in a standard bet (but fold to a re-raise).