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View Full Version : bottom two disaster?

Macquarie
10-06-2005, 06:15 AM
Well, on a happy note, I finally know what people mean when they say they're on a heater... Last few thousand hands have been amazing. Every other PP hits a set, and draws all come home.

On a less happy note, this hand...

Villain unremarkable 20/5 after 100 hands

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($46)
Button ($97)
SB ($94)
Hero ($113.50)
UTG ($174.30)
UTG+1 ($111.95)
UTG+2 ($56.30)
MP1 ($171.50)
MP2 ($109.85)
MP3 ($172)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls $1, CO calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($5) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG+1 calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $12</font>, CO folds, SB folds, Hero calls $8, UTG+1 calls $8.

Turn: ($41) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $25</font>, Hero calls $25, UTG+1 folds.

River: ($91) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $77</font>, Hero?

Final Pot: $168

I put him on likely an overpair on the flop, so didn't raise him there. I suspect lots of people will tell me to raise the flop.

In retrospect my turn check is a disaster. I think I should have lead the turn and fold to a raise.

Any thoughts? Anyone call the river?
HarryW
10-06-2005, 07:01 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I think I should have lead the turn and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks best to me. With those numbers he likely isn't raising 78 or hearts, especially with the other guy in there giving him odds. Best case on the turn he has A6s or medium pair. Problem is I am not sure either will fire 2/3 pot bet into 2 players who are both interested. Smells like 66 or Ah5h; better duck it on the river.
Macquarie
10-06-2005, 06:11 PM
Any more ideas? Can I lose less than 40 bucks here?
Riposte
10-06-2005, 06:16 PM
I like the flop bet and call. This way we can really see if we are in trouble on the turn (facing a set) by betting the turn hard for $40. If he raises, you can fold. If he calls he's on a draw. If he folds, you win.
amoeba
10-06-2005, 06:19 PM
I just fold to the flop raise.

I just don't see overpair often enough to make this call on the flop profitable.
Riposte
10-06-2005, 06:28 PM
I like this too... it's probably better than my line above.
mudbuddha
10-06-2005, 06:35 PM
what could he have that hes raising you with tho???

" theres no way that flop hit this guy.. ill raise him with junk" unless he flopped a set...
orange
10-06-2005, 06:38 PM
Fold the flop.
Riposte
10-06-2005, 06:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
what could he have that hes raising you with tho???

" theres no way that flop hit this guy.. ill raise him with junk" unless he flopped a set...

[/ QUOTE ]


This might be a dangerous thought process.
amoeba
10-06-2005, 06:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
what could he have that hes raising you with tho???

" theres no way that flop hit this guy.. ill raise him with junk" unless he flopped a set...

[/ QUOTE ]

usually people don't bluff in to a near pot bet and a call.

I think you see 56 here pretty often.

other possible candidates if he is decent is 78h, 57h, A5h.

point is there aren't too many hands you are really ahead of here.
mudbuddha
10-06-2005, 06:44 PM
nvmd. i just read amoeba's post
mudbuddha
10-06-2005, 06:45 PM
oh yeah no riase preflop
nvmd..

im so stupid, didnt even consider how many ppl saw hte flop
Macquarie
10-06-2005, 07:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I just fold to the flop raise.

I just don't see overpair often enough to make this call on the flop profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was wondering. But 77/88/99/TT play like this don't they? Is it just too expensive out of position to try to find out if I'm beat?
amoeba
10-06-2005, 07:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just fold to the flop raise.

I just don't see overpair often enough to make this call on the flop profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was wondering. But 77/88/99/TT play like this don't they? Is it just too expensive out of position to try to find out if I'm beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

if utg is on the flush draw and he is on overpair, its going to be very hard to play out of position. in addition to the other scarecards like 7s and 2s.

as it played out, I think UTG had an overpair. perhaps even a big overpair that missed a limp reraise. because if he had flush draw, he would have called the turn if he was goign to call the flop.