live $65 SnG hand, calling all-in with 33

[Slim Pickens]

6-handed (top 2 pay), blinds 100/200, Hero is BB.

UTG goes all-in for about 2400, all fold to Hero on the BB. Hero has about 850 before posting. Hero has 33.

UTG is an aggressive player who's loose but not stupid.

[Deuce2High]

How many people started the tournament and how many chips are in play? Whats the payout distribution for 1st/2nd.

[bennies]

Hero pays 650 to win 1150. A pair of 3's win about 37% of the time against a top 10% range and 35% of the time against top 5%.

From these numbers it looks like a close decision. If the table is tight you might fold and try to steal the next hands. If not, I'd call, and if it worked out people might be hesitant before stealing our blinds again.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
How many people started the tournament and how many chips are in play? Whats the payout distribution for 1st/2nd.

[/ QUOTE ]

10 players to start
6000 chips in play
1st/2nd pays $345/$185

[Nicholasp27]

if u fold here, you are 550 after posting sb next hand, which is <3bbs
if u call here and win, you get 850x2+100sb=t1800, so 1700 after posting sb next hand

so it's basically a matter of 3x the chips...you prolly aren't a 3-1 dog and you will have to push soon with likely a worse hand

i think calling here is a pretty good option, but folding definitely has its merits as well...fold here and push next time u are first in pot with anything decent (any 2 if folded to you in sb), but beware that with <3bbs, you don't have much FE, especially as this aggressive guy with >2500 chips is right to your left...which is why i'd just call here and river the set to beat his aq after he flopped an ace and a queen

Tough situation, I always have hated this type of position. Seems like a lot of others do as well because there is not a lot of feedback.

Personally, I know that when i make this call, I am usually sorry I did. However, I realize we are running out of time here. From the raise that size UTG, I dont think he is looking for a call...and if he gets one, he is hoping to be heads up. So I feel like that means he either has a middle pair or an relatively strong ace. I know that isnt an impressive read. But, from a previous post, i read you are quite the sng player and i think your survival is important here. You are next on the SB and then have 4 hands free to catch a hand...I would grudgingly fold this hand and push something before the blinds hit me again...

I have to qualify my answer too, unless we are very shorthanded, 4 or less, I hate small pocket pairs when i cant limp with them. So I have a personal preference to fold these and try to get a better drawing hand.

[ZeroPointMachine]

You've got five hands(assuming nobody is knocked out) before your committed in the big blind. Calling with 33 is far from ideal but it's the best you can expect at this point.

[pokerlaw]

If I fold to that short of a stack with 6 people left and only 2 places paying, I wouldnt be able to live with myself in the morning.

I would call instantly and load up another live sit and go if I lost.

[microbet]

There were also 2 big stack calling any future pushes with wide ranges.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
There were also 2 big stack calling any future pushes with wide ranges.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, FE was hard to gauge at that table. The woman called with random hands, but also made a lot of bad folds. She was really just a bad, unpredictable player. The other guy just played super-LAG. The guy to my right was making some bad folds. There were stealing opportunities, but not a lot of them.

In that case, I think I would just toss them away and hope that it is folded to me once in the next two hands so i can push. I think another caller to your push is a death sentence here.

[Slim Pickens]

Well, the poll failed to resolve anything. It really was a hard decision. Microbet was sitting between UTG and me on this hand (having already busted /images/graemlins/mad.gif), so I showed him the pocket threes before folding. UTG told him he had 99.

I'm thinking I'm never better than 50% against any range of hands he might be push, even a fairly wide one as could be expected from his play and the stack sizes, plus his evaluation of my play. I'm not getting great odds, and although cEV is still probably positive, I doubt it'll be enough to make it +$EV.

Anyway... really close, and I got lucky and it worked out.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking I'm never better than 50% against any range of hands he might be push

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're only slightly better than 50% against a random hand. the only way you're going to be better than 50% is if he does not open push big pairs. i think this is probably true, but i think he's also more likely to push smallish pairs and make a normal raise with KQ-type hands, so i'd guess it roughly balances out in terms of whether a push is more or less likely to be a pair than a normal raise.

but you don't have ot be anywhere near 50% to make the call. i think (don't know if this is true) that when you're short and far from the money, you should take slightly +chipEV gambles, and this one is at least slgithly +chipEV.