Second guessing myself with TT

[Pog0]

2/4 Poker network 10 handed

Villian is UTG with 53/10/1.37
Hero is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif,T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif


PRE-FLOP
UTG calls, Hero raises, 7 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

FLOP (3 players) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 SB)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

TURN (3 players) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4.5 BB)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls.

RIVER (2 players) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6.5 BB)
UTG checks, Hero bets with the intention of folding to a raise, UTG raises... Hero calls...

PF, Flop, Turn are obviously standard. What's your river line?

[WillyTrailer]

Well, why did you change your mind? Apparently you first read your opponent to not be the type to raise without a better hand and then you call. Unless he's bluff heavy I probably let this go.

-WT

[Nick C]

I like the river bet.

I'd probably plan to fold to a checkraise and then call instead, like you did.

Anyway, Villain is fairly aggressive for his loose VP$IP. You're probably beat, but I think he'll have a hand like pocket fives or A7 on occasion. River checkraises are pretty scary, but then again, with a flopped flush draw or OESD, Villain might've put up a little more resistance on the flop.

[JJNJustin]

why would you bet the river? The Jack of spades completes a straight, a flush, and is an over card to your pair. You could have checked it down and saved yourself the aggrevation. Betting in last position after he checks opens you up for a check raise and a check raise bluff. Now if you call his check raise and find you're beat, you'll wish you had checked it down, and if you fold to his check raise, you'll find yourself wishing you had called or at least hadnt bet. But it will bug you for least 1/2 hr. The only possible best scenario is you make a measley 1 big bet from him IF he calls you with a worse hand. And with that river card, and you betting, most players aren't going to call there without a better hand than TT. And the risk of betting is you get all in a dilema and a quandry that has even made you make a post about it on this forum. With the combined factors of the flush, the straight, and the overcard getting there, I would not bet this river. -J

[shant]

Don't make it sound like missing a bet is a "measly" thing. Value bets are what makes your winrate go up. A player that plays 50% of his hands is just as likely to call you down here with a 7, an 8, 66 and maybe even A-high. I think you should bet/fold this river.

[shant]

Also, what does the J being an overcard have to do with not betting? Do you think he was calling with QJ or AJ on the flop and turn?

[toss]

Although villain is fairly aggressive postflop, I like bet/folding as the J completes a flush draw and straight draw. Villain could have also been calling with a J in his hand. I'd call if the pot was 2 or 3 BB larger.

[SNOWBALL138]

If he was calling with a draw, he just made it.
If he was calling with a pair, he would usually checkcall.
If he was bluffing, he would usually lead the river.

In spots like this, just say to yourself: If he's bluffing me in THIS kind of spot, he DESERVES the pot.

Now, that said, I think your river bet is good. Even if you always call a checkraise here and he's never bluffing when he checkraises, I think your river bet may still be a winner, or at worst a very small loser. A player this loose has a small pocket pair or a split pair so much more often than he has a real draw.



F
O
L
D

I'm not saying that I wouldn't call if I were in a bad mood though. I'm trying to improve my game like a lot of people here, and definitely don't think I'm better than you or anyone else. Maybe post this hand in the psychology forum. I'm not saying that in a condescending way either.

Best,
Snowball

[somapopper]

While I agree value betting is important and missing one bet is something to worry about, I think betting is a bad idea here for a couple reasons:

1. The J is an overcard to his pair completes a straight for 910 and completes the 2 flush from the flop, all obvious, but that's a lot of draws we're looking at, and we can't really put a 51 VP$IP on a hand that easily. Clearly you have to be good at least 50% of the time for a river value bet to be OK, and villian certainly looks like he could be drawing to any of these hands.

2. 53/10/1.37 is not that passive. He's getting a lot of agression in for the number of flops he's seeing, and the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif and the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif are the biggest scare cards that could come down. Is he likely to checkraise you with a hand you beat? No, probably not but how often does he have to to make your bet/fold line unprofitable? 5% of the time, 10%?

3.The value bet you made is really only worth a fraction of a big bet to you given that the river scare card is likely to freeze up an opponent who has improved, but has not improved dramatically. In essence, that the river completes so many draws could make him happy to check through a hand he normally would have bet out, even though he's still likely to call with anything that beats you.

4. Meta game reasons: the bet/fold line in general is highly exploitable, especially when an apparent draw came in on the river, which is the time we're most likely to take it. With opponents who you know well and who have consistently proven themseleves to be uncreative, sure bet/fold away. But against a realtive unknown (to me someone I don't have about 500 hands actually playing with them) I think I need to look them up fairly often if they suddenly wake up on the river. I don't want them legitamatley check raising me a few times, then getting ideas that this will win them a pot no matter what I'm holding.

Also, checking on the end, at least in the short term, will induce HU river bluffs from your opponents more often. Obviously this is vastly superior to having to value bet yourself, as you have the option of closing the action. It's cyclical of course, after you induce enough bluffs and show down the best hand, you will have to find more spots to value bet, but each bluff I induce is like a little bit of joy.

I'm always surprised, especially in the mid/high forum, by the number of times people advocate bet/fold lines. I'm looking forward to hearing responses to my thinking here, and hope a long post of mine doesn't again kill a thread /images/graemlins/frown.gif .

[shant]

Like I already said before, you're ignoring the fact that a player who plays 50% of his hands will call you on the river with an 8, a 7, 66, and lots of other things. You talked about all the scary hands he could've made, but you forgot to mention all the hands he can and will call with that you beat.

That same type of player isn't likely to be paying much attention to how you're playing so metagame and future bluff-inducing value doesn't really factor in for me.

[jskills]

Does bet / calling here really suck that much? I don't see too much wrong with it given villan's stats.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
Does bet / calling here really suck that much? I don't see too much wrong with it given villan's stats.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is 1.37 a very aggressive stat for a 50VPIP? I still don't fully understand how to adjust AF for higher VPIPs.

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does bet / calling here really suck that much? I don't see too much wrong with it given villan's stats.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is 1.37 a very aggressive stat for a 50VPIP? I still don't fully understand how to adjust AF for higher VPIPs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I kind of think it is, since this person is in a lot more hands than a 20 VPIP guy. So being in more hands, means that his 1.37 is really something that indicates he's aggressive in far more situations that his cards could possibly warrant.

ASIDE: It's funny because I had a guy at a 3/6 table with stats just like this last night (55/3/1.4). Bison's icon for him is the elephant, which I always find to be a very weird type - a LAG that doesn't preflop raise basically. This guy was all over the place. He was cold calling preflop galore. He was donking any time it was checked to him - running bluffs that were senseless. He did manage to suck out a few times too, but he ended up dropping 30 BB in about 90 minutes. He certainly was a gift for me.


Back to this hand - I don't expect to win the majority of the time I get raised here, but certainly more than 1 in 9 times, which is what the pot offers me to call one more BB right?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Does bet / calling here really suck that much? I don't see too much wrong with it given villan's stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems okay to me, though I think folding might be a little better. One problem we have is that, while some players would pretty much never checkraise the river with less than top pair, others would do it more than often enough for Hero to call here. And we don't really know Villain's river tendencies.

Anyway, this hand sort of reminds me of a time (this may date back a year or more) when checkraise-bluffing and checkraise-semibluffing on scare cards was very popular on Party 2/4. (Usually the checkraise came on the turn, though.) I haven't played Party 2/4 in awhile, but the sense I get is that bluff-raising scare cards isn't all the rage like it once was. And I guess I'm bringing this up in the hopes that someone can confirm or deny what I just wrote.

[alul]

[ QUOTE ]
In spots like this, just say to yourself: If he's bluffing me in THIS kind of spot, he DESERVES the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like it /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[somapopper]

In my defense, I didn't forget he was a donk, I just thought it wasn't worth it... is this player agressive enought that we can consider it unlikely he has an 8?