expected winrate @ 5/10 full ring

[Maulik]

I've just played 5/10 for the past two nights and would like to know what a good win-rate is for these games. They seem very soft...

From casino play to online play there is far more 3-betting rather than cold calling 2.... and playing out of the blinds is difficult, and I'm working on that. so if you have any good links or suggestions, I'd love to hear about that.

I have no idea what winrates are achievable on 5/10 full, but I am very curious what rates other people aim for.
So far I have only played some 15000 hands on 5/10 full at Party (Eurobet), winning 1.5 BB/100, which is only slightly less than I made at 3/6 and 2/4. This is obviously not nearly enough hands to give a precise long term rate though.

I do still make many mistakes and I could work harder at table/seat selection, so I feel confident a much better rate is possible, but I have no idea how much better.

I am really curious what some of the better 2+2 guys playing 5/10 full make on average, if you would care to share it.

[Paxosmotic]

Aim for 2bb/100 long term, that's an indication you're playing very well. Anything above 1bb is considered acceptable.

[heropretend]

i won't feel confident until i'm over 2bb/100 over 20k hands.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
i won't feel confident until i'm over 2bb/100 over 20k hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which would not mean a thing.

I have ran at 2BB/100 for 25,000 hands in this game before. Then I lost 500BB in 8,000 hands.

FWIW, from what I have seen 1.5BB is good. 2BB I would term really good.

[somapopper]

I hardly ever venture off the BBJ 5/10 tables (I like to gambooool), and when I do these games usually seem like a rock garden to me. Are you finding many tables with a VPIP above 30%? If so, when do you play and how do you deal with the long wait lists for good tables?

[Nick Royale]

How many tables are you playing? Based on fact that it's recommended to have 300-500BB when moving up to a new limit shouldn't losing 500BB at 5/10 with the right tableselction be quite hard playing your best game? You seem like a good player, have you been running extremely bad or do you think own mistkes have been a significant portion of the loss?

[somapopper]

I think 2BB over 25k hands you could be resonably sure that you were a winning player. Something like -.5 to +4 BB/100 with a 95% confidence interval (I'm pulling that off the top of my head as I don't have the formula in front of me).

Not to be a dick, but were you saying you weren't a winning player at 5/10? Whatever happened running -6BB/100 over 8k hands is some incredibly bad luck. Have you considered consulting a feng shui expert?

edit: I had originally written -16 rather than -6. -16BB/100 is my own personal goal, just as soon as I make it clear to God that I hate him.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
How many tables are you playing? Based on fact that it's recommended to have 300-500BB when moving up to a new limit shouldn't losing 500BB at 5/10 with the right tableselction be quite hard playing your best game? You seem like a good player, have you been running extremely bad or do you think own mistkes have been a significant portion of the loss?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was 60,000 hands ago. I am well past that now.

I was just pointing out that running at 2bb/100 over 25,000 hands does not really mean a whole hell of a lot. You could almost just as easily be a .5BB/100 player as a 2BB/100 player.

Just thought I would throw out a personal example.

[Nick Royale]

I'm planning to move up to 5/10. I aim for 2.5 BB/100 2-tabling. With great table selection I think that's reasonable, but I'm interessted in opinion from players with experience from 5/10 full.

[somapopper]

Nick I'd say losing that much that quickly is not likely to be primarily attributable to poor play by anyone who is even remotely decent.

To put it in context, if Flair had decided to not play a single hand over that period, and folded in the blinds regardless of if there was a raise, he would have lost just slightly more than what he did.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 2BB over 25k hands you could be resonably sure that you were a winning player. Something like -.5 to +4 BB/100 with a 95% confidence interval (I'm pulling that off the top of my head as I don't have the formula in front of me).

Not to be a dick, but were you saying you weren't a winning player at 5/10? Whatever happened running -16BB/100 over 8k hands is some incredibly bad luck. Have you considered consulting a feng shui expert?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I am entirely confident I am a winning player (or at least up to a 95% confidence interval).

I had a bad downswing. I was sad.

Then I recovered.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
Nick I'd say losing that much that quickly is not likely to be primarily attributable to poor play by anyone who is even remotely decent.

To put it in context, if Flair had decided to not play a single hand over that period, and folded in the blinds regardless of if there was a raise, he would have lost just slightly more than what he did.

[/ QUOTE ]

My W$SD % during this period was 42%.

I ran into Quads 7 times in 3 days. All when I had hands nut flush or better.

IT was a terrible time. However my pokergrader reports were really fun to look at.

[sy_or_bust]

I'm of the opinion that 2.5BB/100 and higher is perfectly realistic long-term if you table select well and play a flexible game.

[somapopper]

Didn't mean to imply that you weren't a winning player, just trying to get some clarification. Judging by your other posts I was pretty positive your true wr ought to be positive.

It's very good to hear you were able to overcome variance's joke at your personal expense. How did you deal with tilt during that period and keep your enthusiasim for the game? Were the boards here supportive?

Just think what your WR would look like if fate hadn't taken a [censored] on your porch /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm of the opinion that 2.5BB/100 and higher is perfectly realistic long-term if you table select well and play a flexible game.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think this rate is achievable multi-tabling?

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't mean to imply that you weren't a winning player, just trying to get some clarification. Judging by your other posts I was pretty positive your true wr ought to be positive.

[/ QUOTE ]

No problem. I get defensive sometimes.

[ QUOTE ]
It's very good to hear you were able to overcome variance's joke at your personal expense. How did you deal with tilt during that period and keep your enthusiasim for the game?

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran well immediately after the downswing. I also started playing PLO8 just to change things up. I actually considered cashing out the majority of my bankroll and moving down to 2/4 and do some serious bonus whoring for a while. But I decided to stick it out. I read a lot. But it was very depressing; because after the upswing, I had about a two week breakeven streak... so for a while I had my doubts about whether I was capable of beating the game in the long run.

[ QUOTE ]
Were the boards here supportive?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't use the boards in that way. It seems I am about 4-7 years older than the main age group here. So I have a different set of personal circumstances, I just look at things differently.

I did have PM conversations with a couple of Posters. "Doc Martin" comes to mind, where we talked about some conditions that were specific to the 5/10 game.

But any emotional support I needed I got at home from my girlfriend, who was and always is suprisingly supportive. When I was talking about cashing out the majority of my bankroll she said "Good, then we can go shopping this weekend and I can get some new outfits... you can come with me... would you like that baby?", then she laughed at me... anyway I got her point and just toughed it out.

[ QUOTE ]
Just think what your WR would look like if fate hadn't taken a [censored] on your porch /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figure I had it coming. At that point I had never had a downswing of over 130BB (over call it 120,000 hands between .5/1 to 3/6). So when I hit 200BB, I was thinking "Whew...good to have that out of the way." Then the next day I sat down and lost $1000 more.

At one time I was going to go back and count the money lost to 2 and 3 outers, the times I had QQ or KK and someone had AA, the times KK lost to AK, all the sets I had cracked, the underboats, the under sets, the flopped straights that got runner-runnered....etc... But I figured whats the point.

My WR was inflated, I am not a 2BB-2.5BB/100 player. So instead of having a long Break even streak or a few downswings... I ahd one big one.

IT did change the way I view the game though.

[alul]

From my experience...

I've been a winning player at 3/6 (1.6/100) for considerable number of hands. Decided to move to 5/10. After playing for a while I decided to move back to 3/6. It's not that I'm losing a lot, I'm just not ready to it. It's more loose/aggressive than 3/6 (on average), you really need to play postflop very well or just tighten up preflop very much and play a "book for dummies" poker (which I can't do anymore after being in this forum for a while). So I'm back to 3/6 for 2-3 more months and trying to sharpen up my postflop game. Then...back to 5/10.

[DocMartin]

I dont play many hands per month but I am just about done digging myself out of the 150BB hole I started in at 5/10 full so I dont have much of a win rate. I am pretty certain I wont be beating this limit for the 3BB/100 I was winning at 3/6 full.

I would be happy with 1.5BB/100 over a long stretch and expect to get there.

Thankfully 3/6 6max is working out well and improving my game so 5/10 6max may be an option when I think I am ready.

I'm at 1.6BB/100 after 25,000 hands. It was up to around 2.8 or so after 18,000, but I went on a seroius bad streak for a few thousand.

Variance is a bitch.

[SmileyEH]

If you are the type of player that has no fear in progressing through limits quickly, you won't ever have as high a winrate at each particular limit in comparison to a player who stays at one limit for a long time grinding it out. Based on my 10kish hand sample at 5/10 I'd say 3BB/100 is sustainable (with good game selection), but someone winning at that rate would probably move to 10/20 before they could be statistically confident (with whatever certainty you desire) in their winrate. I played something like 150k hands at 2/4 because I needed the money and couldn't afford to take real shots at higher limits (plus tilt and laziness)-as a result my winrate over that hand sample was higher than most people thought was reasonable. However, I almost certainly had more long term EV moving up to higher limits and becoming a better player - it just worked out for my situation that I wasn't comfortable doing that.

In any case, I would think if you play a couple 10k's of hands at 5/10 full and you're winning over 1.5/100 you are doing fine and can move up if you want to, or at least take a shot. What is more important however is how comfortable you feel in the game - if you can sit down at 4 random tables and feel completely in control of your game and rarely be faced with tough decisions than you are doing fine - the numbers should come along eventually. But there will always be long term grinders in the game who will be able to make more simply due to the long hours they've put in, learning the tendencies of the general player pool and the regulars.

-SmileyEH

[Harv72b]

I think 2 BB/100 has been sustainable on every limit I've played so far, and that this is a good goal to shoot for. 1.5 might be a more realistic goal for hardcore multitablers, tho.

[brettbrettr]

In my DB of limits from .5/1.00 to 10/20, 5/10 full is where I've won the least (in terms of bb/100). I'm not sure if the games have changed much--I havent' played them in a few months--but I think 2 bbs/100 would be terrific.

[sy_or_bust]

For sure. Just like in 3/6, the average 5/10 game is very susceptible to judicious open-raising by position. It's only at 15/30+, IMO, where decent/marginal open-raises require good reads to be played correctly postflop.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 2 BB/100 has been sustainable on every limit I've played so far, and that this is a good goal to shoot for. 1.5 might be a more realistic goal for hardcore multitablers, tho.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am very happy with winning 1.5BB/100 over long stretches of hands.

I have my own ideas about 2-3BB/100 in this game. But it is not worth going into.

What I will say is this, if you are going to put in a lot of hands at this level while multi-tabling, there will be plenty of times you will be sitting in games where your EV is much lower than you are accustomed to.

The mistakes the average (read small loser to breakeven) 5/10 player makes are less grievous than those of the same players in the 2/4 and 3/6 games.

Over the 120,000 hands I have played (I don't datamine, but I imagine this is fairly accurate) the average VPIP/PFR is 26/7 (note: 20-25% of my hands are from Absolute Poker, where the 5/10 game can be atrociously tight at times... so my overall average might be lower as compared to a Party only player.). This is not the mark of a generally inept player pool. There are relatively less PF mistakes to take advantage of, so you must look to post flop to make up the difference. This can be a difficult change to make and maintain.

It all comes down to table selection. So I guess what I am saying is that I would expect somebody playing 8-10 hours a week during primetime, would deliver a higher winrate than somebody trying to cram in 20 hours.

But honestly as I said, when I run a large block of hands at 1.5BB/100 I am happy. If I did 2BB/100 I would probably need a head reducing machine.