bet or check/raise [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

newhizzle

10-06-2005, 01:02 AM

villian is TAG on the tight side, basically do you think hes more likely to call a bet with his AK or whatever or bluff with it?

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 4 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.17 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

River: (7.17 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero ...

DrewOnTilt

10-06-2005, 01:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
villian is TAG on the tight side, basically do you think hes more likely to call a bet with his AK or whatever or bluff with it?

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 4 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.17 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

River: (7.17 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero ...

[/ QUOTE ]

 Betty Betty Betty.

There are not many players that will check through the turn and then bet an Ace high on the river after you have shown strength on the flop. You'll get a call from AK here relatively often, though.

newhizzle

10-06-2005, 03:26 AM

what about if the 7 didnt hit?

Pog0

10-06-2005, 03:30 AM

Bet, he induced a bluff, so he should call it. I like bet/folding the river UI to induce a call from AK as well.

I don't see what AK bluffing would hope to achieve.

Solid_p

10-06-2005, 07:45 AM

Doen't change much. Bet and hope he calls with A-high. He's not betting it himself.

Solid_p

10-06-2005, 07:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you do this often?

bungyrocks

10-06-2005, 08:36 AM

Id bet

bungyrocks

10-06-2005, 08:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you do this often?

[/ QUOTE ]

pfr % must be off the chart

crunchy1

10-06-2005, 08:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Id bet

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
River: (7.17 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero ... 

[/ QUOTE ]
He did. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

NH

sean c

10-06-2005, 08:39 AM

Bet the river. Why didn't you check/raise the flop?

bungyrocks

10-06-2005, 08:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Id bet

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
River: (7.17 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero ... 

[/ QUOTE ]
He did. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

NH

[/ QUOTE ]

your observation skills are astounding /images/graemlins/wink.gif

somapopper

10-06-2005, 08:59 AM

I haven't read SSH. Does it advise raising 77-1010 up front? Why am I seeing so much of this lately? I don't get the logic of it except in tight games.

newhizzle

10-06-2005, 05:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river. Why didn't you check/raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

i felt a donk bet would be a better line because of my position to CO, if this was heads up, i would have check-raised, but theres not really any point in check-raising a vulnerable hand like this after 2 players have called in my oppinion

newhizzle

10-06-2005, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't read SSH. Does it advise raising 77-1010 up front? Why am I seeing so much of this lately? I don't get the logic of it except in tight games.

[/ QUOTE ]

SSH does not say to, but a lot of 2+2ers do

newhizzle

10-06-2005, 05:35 PM

W. Deranged

10-06-2005, 05:43 PM

While it's not entirely clear that villain has AK here, he certainly will a very large percentage of the time (like 80% probably), and so I'm going to discuss this river play with that assumption.

This is a pretty tough situation, in my opinion, because the way in which players treat AK unimproved on the later streets varies so widely from player to player.

Some players who are TAGs by numbers and style are trained in the (probably correct) school of thought (advocated by both Sklansky and Ciaffone, if I'm correct) that is you check behind AK on the turn you need to call with it very liberally on the river to avoid getting bluffed out of pots by missed draws and inferior A-high hands.

On the other hand, I've heard often from nitty tag types in live games that "you just can't call the river with AK unimproved" and so forth. Because, I guess, it's not a pair or something.

Similarly, some fairly clueless players with TAG numbers will bet AK unimproved on the river, not realizing they'll usually only get called by worse hands, because they "knew it was good."

The thing is, you are unlikely to ever get two bets out of AK, and so what you're really looking to determine is how you're most likely to get one BB in: namely whether checking to induce a bluff or betting will most likely get a call out of villain.

My general sense is this: Not looking solely at numbers, but based on your observed read of the player (which is a much harder thing to get and you may not even have it), how good do you think this player is?

Against players who understand the game, betting is almost certainly better.

Against players who don't, checking is probably slightly better as, the poorer the player, the more likely he is to: a) "always fold AK"; b) bet AK unimproved on the river.

Who knows? I honestly don't think hitting the set matters all that much anyway.

sean c

10-06-2005, 05:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river. Why didn't you check/raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

i felt a donk bet would be a better line because of my position to CO, if this was heads up, i would have check-raised, but theres not really any point in check-raising a vulnerable hand like this after 2 players have called in my oppinion

[/ QUOTE ]

For some reason i thought it was heads up. I will learn to read one of these days.