PLO8, how much to bet when you flop nut flush?

[Wintermute]

Let's say there's two high cards and one low. Take this hand for example:

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: Hero ( $400 )
Seat 4: papafatstaxs ( $183.30 )
Seat 6: bolzy ( $317.10 )
Seat 7: phuckthefill ( $326.88 )
Seat 8: cassdog ( $244.20 )
Seat 10: aliceroo1 ( $224.72 )
Seat 9: delDuero ( $97.94 )
bolzy posts small blind [$2].
phuckthefill posts big blind [$4].
delDuero is sitting out.
Hero posts big blind [$4].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5s 2s Ac Tc ]

cassdog calls [$4].
aliceroo1 folds.
Hero raises [$14].
papafatstaxs folds.
bolzy calls [$16].
phuckthefill calls [$14].
cassdog calls [$14].

** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, 9c, 8c ]

bolzy checks.
phuckthefill checks.
cassdog checks.
Hero ?

You obviously want a small flush to play back at you--even a set or two pair might get stupid. I know it's situation/player dependent, but anyone have a good idea for a rule of thumb? Emptyshell, I'm hoping actually you might be able to run some automated searches through your HHs and see if you have a good answer, although maybe that's too much to ask given that there's probably a european babe face down in your lap...

[TheWorstPlayer]

Full pot. They will call.

[Wintermute]

A set might call the full pot one time, but I don't think small flushes will. Also, I'd like them to feel tempted to play back at me. (I should've mentioned that flopping the nut flush happens often when you've raised preflop, so the flop bet might look like a continuation bet if you bet the right amount.) Anyway, I have a hunch that the best bet is somewhere between 1/2 pot and full pot, but I'm definitely not sure. Hopefully others will chime in.

[Mendacious]

I think you are going to get folded on the vast majority of the time no matter what size your bet is. I think I've tried every size with similar results. I think you can make an argument that the pot bet looks the most like a steal from the button and is most likely to get called, and has the virtue of getting a lot more money in the pot quickly. If this pot had not been raised 4x the BB and called by three people, I could even make a case for checking this hand and hoping for a low card to quarter someone. However you already have 18 Big Blinds in the pot, so I think you should protect the hand and hope that some donk calls.

[Mendacious]

Anything much less than half the pot and you are actually giving trips the correct odds to call.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Small flush will often play back at you putting you, especially if there are two low cards, putting you on low draw and/or set. And full pot is what I usually bet after raising preflop so that is what I would bet here. Definitely if there are two low cards. If there is only one low card, maybe I'll bet smaller. But I doubt it.

[emptyshell]

The European babe can make typing difficult...

It would be easy to run a database query, if I knew how to express it in SQL. This seems like a really difficult one, though, especially given that you won't know for sure when someone bet too much (and everybody mucked their cards.)

My approach is to let the flop check around if the pot is small; the benefit I gain when a K-high flush thinks he's good outweighs the times when I have to give up because the board pairs. An especially cool trick is to let it check around when 2-to-a-low flop. I start firing after the third low card hits. I've won some big pots from players with baby flushes and no low that way. Obviously not a play to make against a good player that might be freerolling you.

If the pot is large, I would just pot it out of position (or go for a check-raise if you're up against an aggressor.) In position, it's probably OK to simply price out the FH draw, e.g. bet 1/2 pot. Some players, like Baseballer, can get easily fooled into thinking your weak by waiting a long time before acting.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say there's two high cards and one low. Take this hand for example:

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: Hero ( $400 )
Seat 4: papafatstaxs ( $183.30 )
Seat 6: bolzy ( $317.10 )
Seat 7: phuckthefill ( $326.88 )
Seat 8: cassdog ( $244.20 )
Seat 10: aliceroo1 ( $224.72 )
Seat 9: delDuero ( $97.94 )
bolzy posts small blind [$2].
phuckthefill posts big blind [$4].
delDuero is sitting out.
Hero posts big blind [$4].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5s 2s Ac Tc ]

cassdog calls [$4].
aliceroo1 folds.
Hero raises [$14].
papafatstaxs folds.
bolzy calls [$16].
phuckthefill calls [$14].
cassdog calls [$14].

** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, 9c, 8c ]

bolzy checks.
phuckthefill checks.
cassdog checks.
Hero ?

You obviously want a small flush to play back at you--even a set or two pair might get stupid. I know it's situation/player dependent, but anyone have a good idea for a rule of thumb? Emptyshell, I'm hoping actually you might be able to run some automated searches through your HHs and see if you have a good answer, although maybe that's too much to ask given that there's probably a european babe face down in your lap...

[/ QUOTE ]

It all depends on whether you get called a retard by people for betting a naked ace flush...
If you do, like me, then you tend to find the occasional pot bet winning big money.

[Mendacious]

Hmmm I would love to see that quote. Seems contrary to the facts.

[Wintermute]

FWIW, I bet around 2/3 of the pot, Cassdog raised the pot with a 7-high flush, and I took his stack. Not saying 2/3 is optimal, but I think something between 1/2 and 2/3 mixes the image of uncertainty and the pricing out of boat draws nicely.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I bet around 2/3 of the pot, Cassdog raised the pot with a 7-high flush, and I took his stack. Not saying 2/3 is optimal, but I think something between 1/2 and 2/3 mixes the image of uncertainty and the pricing out of boat draws nicely.

[/ QUOTE ]
Go back and bet full pot. I want to know what he does.

[Wintermute]

He folded.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Damnit.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm I would love to see that quote. Seems contrary to the facts.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're so vain, I bet you think this song is about you.
What have you got to do with anything?

[Mendacious]

Lol--- "pot, your black" (kettle) Re-enable McGyver_B's chat. Its no fun ripping you when you can't respond.

[gergery]

Bet the same amount you'd bet it you had naked Ac.
And the same amount you'd bet with A2+ two pair/set.

I like 2/3 or full pot bet.

What it comes down to is how a crappy weak player who thinks you are bluffing will react, and they tend to think others will slowplay, just like they would.

-g

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the same amount you'd bet it you had naked Ac.
And the same amount you'd bet with A2+ two pair/set.

I like 2/3 or full pot bet.

What it comes down to is how a crappy weak player who thinks you are bluffing will react, and they tend to think others will slowplay, just like they would.

-g

[/ QUOTE ]
See, I think that most crappy players aren't perceptive enough to know how much you'll typically bet in either of those situations you listed. In fact, I don't think many good players are that perceptive (I'm definitely not). When I dry-ace bluff, it's almost always for the full pot, unless it's at the river and I'm check-raising but don't want to risk the full amount. I would never bet 2/3 of the pot for fear that someone weak would interpret that as weakness and play back at me with, say, a 7-high flush.

So I don't buy the idea that the bluff bet size has to = the real hand bet size.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the same amount you'd bet it you had naked Ac.
And the same amount you'd bet with A2+ two pair/set.

I like 2/3 or full pot bet.

What it comes down to is how a crappy weak player who thinks you are bluffing will react, and they tend to think others will slowplay, just like they would.

-g

[/ QUOTE ]
See, I think that most crappy players aren't perceptive enough to know how much you'll typically bet in either of those situations you listed. In fact, I don't think many good players are that perceptive (I'm definitely not). When I dry-ace bluff, it's almost always for the full pot, unless it's at the river and I'm check-raising but don't want to risk the full amount. I would never bet 2/3 of the pot for fear that someone weak would interpret that as weakness and play back at me with, say, a 7-high flush.

So I don't buy the idea that the bluff bet size has to = the real hand bet size.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't have to. It's just a good habit to get into. Many players won't notice. Some will.

-g

[Wintermute]

Do you think that the EV your consistency in bet size will create in hands w/ good players is enough to offset the EV your designed inconsistency might have in hands with weak players?

I think, for example, that if I bet the full pot here this other guy folds.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think that the EV your consistency in bet size will create in hands w/ good players is enough to offset the EV your designed inconsistency might have in hands with weak players?

I think, for example, that if I bet the full pot here this other guy folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. i find that people will often call my nutflush bets here because they would never bet fullpot with the nutflush. But yes, I think 2/3rd pot generally looks weaker to most.

-g

[wiseheart]

Shouldnt it work better to vary your
bets widely so as to keep your opponents guessing,
like with bluffs. I vary mine from check to pot size
and make money with it...key is knowing when your opp
is holding two pair so you know if he catches a boat...