Newbie Line on Full House

hey all:
here's the hand. I put Looseish MP3 on AK, but I have no idea what to make of Button. Thanks.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (12.20 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 24.20 BB

[Eeegah]

Nice table. I think the only real question is whether the flop c/r is good or would betting out be better. I'm trying real hard to come up with a reason why one should be better than the other and can't, so I suspect that it wouldn't matter either way. NH.

[Harv72b]

You absolutely, positively, without the slightest bit of hesitation, have to lead the turn. This is imperative...if nobody has a flush, you almost certainly have the best hand. If somebody does, you have 10 outs to beat him. You might even get someone with a small flush to fold.

On .25/.50, your river action is probably justified. On a higher limit, I'd be more than a little worried about KK or KQ.

Yeah, I guess my biggest concern was the turn line. Once I see the 4 flush, I'm worried that mp3 has AK and the A is the spade, and I think i'm beaten when he bets into me again on the turn after I c/r'd the flop. What's your read there?

I was a lot more worried on the river about KQ than KK or QQ, because I would have thought they'd 3bet from the button with those big pairs. Does that sound correct?

Update: Sorry, wasn't clear the first time. by "What's your read" I'm wondering if you think his turn bet means he has the As.

[istewart]

Harv, I think you are up against a flush nearly every single time 4-ways and you are never folding a spade.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
Harv, I think you are up against a flush nearly every single time 4-ways and you are never folding a spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone's got a flush here just over 3/4 of the time even if they're holding any two, and you're right: no one who called a bet and a checkraise with a spade in the hopes of catching a flush is folding now that they have one. The fact that they didn't fold the flop indicates that they probably aren't holding any two, so I dunno, maybe 85% chance of a flush out there?

We have 10 outs, but we need to discount just a tad in the case that a board pair gives the villain a bigger boat or even quads. I think we can put the villain on AA-QQ, AK-AQ, KQ or KJs at this point. I'm not sure how to calculate KQ (which we beat if there's no flush or we river 3 but will slaughter us if we spike a K or Q) but of the others we're screwed by 6/33 hands. Thus we discount our 10 outs by this, for about 7.5 outs*, plus or minus a smigeon for KQ.

7.5 outs is 16% to hit our hand by the river, plus the 15% that there's no flush out there comes to about 30%. Trying to bet this for value here is probably not worth it, especially if MP3 (or someone else) raises and blows away the field or folks lacking spades start folding. It's close though, and depending on how likely you think that no one has a spade, or how less likely KK might be or how exactly KQ plays out you could probably interperet this any way you want. Interesting situation, really.

* if you really want to be anal you discount 9 of the outs and count the 4 as a full out, but it hardly changes this at all.

thanks everyone. here's the showdown:

Showdown:

mp3 shows As Kd.
mp3 has As Ks 4s 3s Qs: flush, ace high.
button shows Kh Qh.
button has Kh Qh Ks Qs Qd: full house, queens full of kings.
hero mucks cards.
(hero has 4d 4c.)

[Fantam]

I would have played this hand the same way.

Its possible that MP3 and button both had flushes. I expect one of them probably had the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

I would also have 3-bet the river. Its possible that someone may have had KQ, but I think that you would probably win this hand more often than not.

I think you have to give the button a lot more respect here.

If he had the ace he would have raised on the turn, with the J he only calls the river. I would call on the river and expect to lose most of the time.

The rest is fine. Oh, and if the button just called the river, definitely checkraise.

Grunch,

I'd put the button on a set of queens or possible KQ, in which case he's got you beat. Call on the turn makes me think he could have two pair and is worried about the flush.

[SocialWelfareIV]

Lead the flop and hope to 3-bet. With your hand, you want to get as many bets in on the flop as you can. Your hand is best a large percentage of the time, and if it's not you have a strong draw and re-draw here. You can get your opponents to put in 4 bets with all kinds of hands that have no business doing so here.