Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?

[evanski]

My first strategy post in quite some time. Game is 4 handed 50-100. I pick up KhKs UTG and raise to 325. Button and BB call.

Flop: 6h 5h 2s
BB checks I bet 800. Button calls, BB pushes for 5k. BB is the reason the game exists. I would happily call his push headup and would expect to win a large percentage of the time (he could literally have anything here, he is randomly aggressive and somewhat tilted). I call, hoping the button gets out. Button calls.

Turn (6h 5h 2s) Ts
I bet 3500, button pushes, I have 12k left and he covers.

A few thoughts. Villain is a super-aggressive player. From previous encounters I know he generally plays his draws fast on the flop as well as his big made hands. This situation, with a dry side pot, could alter his behavior though. Villain views me as a tightish player, and frequently pushes me out of pots. Additionally, he knows the BB probably doesnt have much, and also knows that I am going to have a real hard time calling with an overpair here. I will feel like a donk if I call his push only to see 66, but I will feel equally stupid if he squeezed me out with something like 88-jj. I think he smoothcalls with a heart draw on the flop, but only raises on the turn if the ten gave him a reasonable hand to win the main pot with (someting like jhth). Like I mentioned earlier, with a set or straight his general line is to push real hard on the flop, but hes certainly capable of mixing it up.

So, what do you do facing the push? My immediate thought was to instamuck, but the more I thought the more unsure I was. Anyone check the turn?

-Evan

[bugstud]

stack sizes? I don't know how much the shorty shoves for.

[evanski]

Sorry. Fixed.

[gol4pro]

You can't call that turn raise.

Furthermore, I don't really see a reason to combat a side pot here. Unless you want to be playing for 250BB with very little read against a tricky, aggressive player, keep the side pot 0.

[HoldEmKillah]

*I don't play this high*

But regardless...I think you are ahead. You only bet $3500 into a $16,000 pot which REEKS of weakness. I'm sure he sees a golden opportunity to blow a perceived nit off his non-set hand. If he flopped a set himself (or 2pair) then I would expect him to push after you flat call BB's 5k push. That way, his all in at that point looks like a draw trying to push out the 3rd party and is more likely to get called. Here, he waits until the turn which he wants you to think is a slowplay or TT. He sure as shiit doesn't have a set with all that flop action and the opportunity to get it ALL in the middle. Not to mention a free card would be suicide in a 3way pot that large. I agree. He has hearts or pair+draw and is trying to blow you off your kings.

Also...the pot is $31,500 and you have to call $12k laying you 2.6:1 which are pretty good odds considering all the variables.

I'd call...hope it worked out.

[evanski]

Well, if I could magically get to showdown without putting in any more money, I would. Youre saying check the turn? And then do what when he inevitably bets? I think bet/fold is far superior to check/fold.

-Evan

[durrrr]

If villain is good enough to mix up his play and push w/ JhTh or w/e u do beat on the turn he is also good enough to just call w/ a set/34 on the flop assuming you'll bet at least something on the turn. I'm not saying this is a fold, just that it is in no way a clearcut decision. Seeing as the pot is laying you 2.6-1, and you have 2 outs at least 95% of the time (cmon how often does he really have 34 here) Your equity cant be that bad. I'd say your probably ahead at least 1/3 times here(assuming i take your description on him to be correct), altho he does outdraw, and there is still a good chance that the bb has you beat, or will after the river. All this factors into a ridiculously tough decision which i would need to know villain better to answer accurately, although it appears to be a call- albeit a very close one.

P.S. Betting the turn is definitely the right line- at first glance i like your betsize, but im sure that an argument could be made for both larger and smaller bets

[fsuplayer]

im not understanding the turn bet size.

the pot is $16k, you have $15k left on a drawtastic board.

im liking either check folding or betting enough to commit yourself, like 9k-11k. i think you need to make a decision before you bet on the turn whether you think you are good here, and then bet accordingly.


im trying to lower these stakes in my head when analyzing this hand, bc it seems crazy to put in $15,000 more on the turn with one pair, but with that pot size on the turn, im either getting the rest in or nothing at all.

your bet size looks like you want a cheap showdown, and an aggro player might have tried to take advantage of that.

as it is now, pot $35k, 12k to call, its a tough fold against a crzy player.

[Spladle Master]

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So, what do you do facing the push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would decide what I thought the button had and go from there. Really, that's all you can do.

[flawless_victory]

tough hand here.
i think youre just begging for it with that tiny turn bet... dont like that.
check/fold.
checkraise allin.
bet at least 10K.
those seem to be the reasonable choices...
as played, very tough to call this allin, but if you feel like the guy marked himself with a draw by flat calling behind you, pay him off...
i think most good players wouldnt raise 66/55 on the flop, after choosing to flat call the first time around, so im prob mucking here, but id be pretty unhappy about the way this went down.

[flawless_victory]

also he may have you on the NFD given your play thus far, yeah? would make sense right?
maybe hed move in w/88-QQ to shut you out protect/protect his hand?
maybe i like a call ok...

[Allinlife]

since this is auto-fold in my book, it bothers me that up @ 50/100nl people play in such a way to make this fold a hard one.

really comes down to how often he'd do this to squeeze you, no?

[Matt Flynn]

this hand is why i don't want play hyperaggressive people shorthanded for big money. bankroll requirements for this game are minimum 500K.

you made your decision too late. decide whether you want the money in or no after he calls the flop. if you want the money in, your enticer bet against a hyperaggro is a nice play provided he bites. otherwise you begged to get yourself in that hole. as is pot's 35K back to you for 12K. looks like you pot-stuck yourself. call. hope you won. remember you only have to win the whole enchilada 1 in 4 for your call to be correct, so tough to argue for a fold given your descriptions.

matt

[Ulysses]

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since this is auto-fold in my book, it bothers me that up @ 50/100nl people play in such a way to make this fold a hard one.

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So, you're surprised that 50/100NL players put their opponents in tough spots?

[Ulysses]

Having gotten in this pickle, I usually call getting about 3:1. I wouldn't make that turn bet unless I was planning to call a push, though. Was this UB? If so, who was the opponent?

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also he may have you on the NFD given your play thus far, yeah? would make sense right?

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Does nut flush draw play this way in dry pot?

[captZEEbo1]

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also he may have you on the NFD given your play thus far, yeah? would make sense right?

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Does nut flush draw play this way in dry pot?

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well if he checks, opponent could move in and flush draw would have to fold....by betting small with a nut flush draw, it could prevent opponent from making a huge bet. It's basically a blocking bet on your draw.

[flawless_victory]

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also he may have you on the NFD given your play thus far, yeah? would make sense right?

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Does nut flush draw play this way in dry pot?

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well if he checks, opponent could move in and flush draw would have to fold....by betting small with a nut flush draw, it could prevent opponent from making a huge bet. It's basically a blocking bet on your draw.

[/ QUOTE ]yeah.
his turn bet is what i was referring to, for the most part.
ppl make these small bets trying to price themselves in on draws all the time.

[jzpiano14]

Results??

[mikech]

[ QUOTE ]
My first strategy post in quite some time. Game is 4 handed 50-100. I pick up KhKs UTG and raise to 325. Button and BB call.

Flop: 6h 5h 2s
BB checks I bet 800. Button calls, BB pushes for 5k. BB is the reason the game exists. I would happily call his push headup and would expect to win a large percentage of the time (he could literally have anything here, he is randomly aggressive and somewhat tilted). I call, hoping the button gets out. Button calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
did you consider 3-betting the flop, maybe a min-reraise, making it 9200 to go? if you believed you were ahead of the bb, why not isolate? i can see the button calling 4200 on the flop with a flush draw when there's 12k in the pot and 15.5k behind. instead of hoping he gets out, force him out. or were you wary he flopped a set on you as soon as he flatcalled the 800?

[RollaJ]

There are a lot more hands that beat you than hands you beat at this point. I think I fold to the turn raise. Obviously not an easy decision, but it sure looks to me that he gave you the provrebial "rope". I mean he did overcall a 4200 check-raise on the flop

I think if he had a draw he would just take the cheap draw you offered him, why push on a semi bluff when he has to assume you'll call considering the great odds from the pot

[fsuplayer]

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There are a lot more hands that beat you than hands you beat at this point. I think I fold to the turn raise. Obviously not an easy decision, but it sure looks to me that he gave you the provrebial "rope". I mean he did overcall a 4200 check-raise on the flop

I think if he had a draw he would just take the cheap draw you offered him, why push on a semi bluff when he has to assume you'll call considering the great odds from the pot


[/ QUOTE ]

bc he has a pair with his draw and thinks that this pair beats the all in player, but doesnt beat hero's overpair.

[Maulik]

I have no business here but could the villian be doing this w/ 99-QQ?

[arod15]

You have to fold. Even if you are ahead. And i would have folded to the first push seeing that you were sandwiched.

[Ulysses]

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And i would have folded to the first push seeing that you were sandwiched.

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Given what evanski told us, folding to that first push is really bad.

[mikech]

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And i would have folded to the first push seeing that you were sandwiched.

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Given what evanski told us, folding to that first push is really bad.

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do you think reraising that push is better than calling?

[fsuplayer]

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And i would have folded to the first push seeing that you were sandwiched.

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Given what evanski told us, folding to that first push is really bad.

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do you think reraising that push is better than calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

thats what im still trying to decide, but its so hard without knowing the opponent or the table dynamics well enough.

[xorbie]

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And i would have folded to the first push seeing that you were sandwiched.

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Given what evanski told us, folding to that first push is really bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
do you think reraising that push is better than calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

thats what im still trying to decide, but its so hard without knowing the opponent or the table dynamics well enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be wrong here, but hopefully someone will correct me.

The turn line itself can certainly be questioned, I think against someone aggro betting small like this and calling a push can definitely be +EV, I saw others suggesting check, others suggesting bet/call. Whatever the line, if we do assume that evanski is fine getting all in on the turn then I think that if we look back at the flop you have to raise because it prevents villain from getting a cheap look at the turn when there are so many hands here that could have pretty decent equity. It also might look more like an isolation move with 88-TT and if villain does have something like NFD he might be enticed to push.

[fsuplayer]

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And i would have folded to the first push seeing that you were sandwiched.

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Given what evanski told us, folding to that first push is really bad.

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do you think reraising that push is better than calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

thats what im still trying to decide, but its so hard without knowing the opponent or the table dynamics well enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be wrong here, but hopefully someone will correct me.

The turn line itself can certainly be questioned, I think against someone aggro betting small like this and calling a push can definitely be +EV, I saw others suggesting check, others suggesting bet/call. Whatever the line, if we do assume that evanski is fine getting all in on the turn then I think that if we look back at the flop you have to raise because it prevents villain from getting a cheap look at the turn when there are so many hands here that could have pretty decent equity. It also might look more like an isolation move with 88-TT and if villain does have something like NFD he might be enticed to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post.

[evanski]

So, Ive spent the last couple days trying to figure out a better way to play this. The best I could come up with is that I have to be content to play a big pot with one pair here, and whats the best line to maximize the chance that my money goes in. On the flop, I think smoothcalling is best. Sure, it lets him come in behind me, and there are a lot of turn cards that Im not going to like, but what are the alternatives? Folding sucks, since Im almost always ahead of the BB and most of the time the button is going to get out of the way anyways. Any raise would basically be allin. This has some merits since it forces the button out with a draw (or at least makes him put his stack in), but I dont think I like it. It allows him to play his hand perfectly. Im basically saying "I sure hope you didnt flop a set/straight. If you did, heres 200BB's" I really dont think hes going to call with any non-drwaing hand that I beat. So I think calling is best.

As for the turn, well, I dont know. I think I like betting, since he might be on a flush draw and I dont want to give him a free shot at the river. Betting more than I did/pushing is nice in that I dont have a sticky river situation. However, by betting a lot it makes it impossible for him to make a play at the pot, and I reduce his holdings only to draws and hands that beat me. So, I actually think that betting 3500 was pretty good, as long as Im willing to check fold getting really good odds on the river if a heart hits, since I think the chances of him waiting until the river to push me off my hand are pretty minimal. (basically what flynn and diablo said)

Anyways, after he pushed I ran most of my time down and finally called, hoping that he had ahjh or something like that and was trying to squeeze me. The river was an inconsequential 2d. The BB flipped over A6o. The button flipped 88, and mhwg. My hats off to the button though, I think he played this hand absolutely excellently, and almost managed to scoop a 21k pot. If I were him I wouldnt have even thought of attempting it.

-Evan

[James282]

As a learning NL player, I think this thread is awesome. Great thoughts here!
-James

[Allinlife]

agreed. However kids, don't try this at home.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
As a learning NL player, I think this thread is awesome. Great thoughts here!
-James

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[TheWorstPlayer]

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As a learning NL player, I think this thread is awesome. Great thoughts here!
-James

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[/ QUOTE ]
Reminds me of cero_z's 'sweet suicide' thread if this post was written from BN's perspective and you were the SB in his hand with KK. Except if he were BN, he would have rivered an 8 and you would have lost no matter what you did. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[bugstud]

woulda sucked for him to have TT or a set or something. I just wonder if he flatcalls the flop there with those hands with the whole dry side pot problem on the turn if you check

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
So, Ive spent the last couple days trying to figure out a better way to play this. The best I could come up with is that I have to be content to play a big pot with one pair here, and whats the best line to maximize the chance that my money goes in. On the flop, I think smoothcalling is best. Sure, it lets him come in behind me, and there are a lot of turn cards that Im not going to like, but what are the alternatives? Folding sucks, since Im almost always ahead of the BB and most of the time the button is going to get out of the way anyways. Any raise would basically be allin. This has some merits since it forces the button out with a draw (or at least makes him put his stack in), but I dont think I like it. It allows him to play his hand perfectly. Im basically saying "I sure hope you didnt flop a set/straight. If you did, heres 200BB's" I really dont think hes going to call with any non-drwaing hand that I beat. So I think calling is best.

As for the turn, well, I dont know. I think I like betting, since he might be on a flush draw and I dont want to give him a free shot at the river. Betting more than I did/pushing is nice in that I dont have a sticky river situation. However, by betting a lot it makes it impossible for him to make a play at the pot, and I reduce his holdings only to draws and hands that beat me. So, I actually think that betting 3500 was pretty good, as long as Im willing to check fold getting really good odds on the river if a heart hits, since I think the chances of him waiting until the river to push me off my hand are pretty minimal. (basically what flynn and diablo said)

Anyways, after he pushed I ran most of my time down and finally called, hoping that he had ahjh or something like that and was trying to squeeze me. The river was an inconsequential 2d. The BB flipped over A6o. The button flipped 88, and mhwg. My hats off to the button though, I think he played this hand absolutely excellently, and almost managed to scoop a 21k pot. If I were him I wouldnt have even thought of attempting it.

-Evan

[/ QUOTE ]

Kudos.... I assume we all make plays like the button did in this hand from time to time. I can say that when I do it is usually not something I planned, rather..... "I know what he has, and there is no way he can call if I make this move"..... and basically it almost always works. I guess his mistake was that there was just a bit too much money in the pot for you to fold.

Good Post

[fsuplayer]

i hate the button's flop call unless you routinely check fold the turn with overpairs, which i doubt is the case.

you almost gave him the chance to make up for it however with your thinking on the turn. I cant say that I like your bet size on the turn if you are considering folding at all.

well, glad you called. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

personally, id be in sick bay for a week if i had folded and see him win with 88. but thats why 10-20 is just fine for me.

nice pot.