Here's another one I can't decide on!!

[Whitey]

I've been busting myself up over this ever since it happened and still cant decide weather I made the correct decision,please help!

P/stars $50+5 buy in NLHE.
Down to last 3 tables,blinds are 200/400 I have T10,000 in chips which puts me in about 5th or 6th position.I get moved to this table and have only seen one hand so far with these players.
Chip leader with 15,000 is on button,3 others around my stack size and the rest have T5000 or less.

I get dealt pocket jacks 1 away from UTG.
UTG raises minimum amount making it 800 to call,now with no read I'm not sure how to take this so just call.Its passed round to a player in middle position who raises all in,(about 11,000).Now the thing is this guy has just lost about 5000 to a real bad beat and I am convinced he's steaming,I put him on a pair lower than mine or Ace with a lower kicker than my pair.
Folded round to the button who takes an age to decide to pass,blinds fold and I am now thinking I am a big favourite if my feeling on his hand is correct.(If the button or the guy UTG passed an Ace and he does have Ace X I'm an even bigger fav)

I call all in and I'm right he has A9 offsuit.Unfortunatly he flops an ace and I go out gutted and unsure if I played correctly based on my "feeling".

Please let me know what you think,also what were the odds on him hitting that ace?Was I the big favourite I thought I was?After all if I had Kings I call automatically with the same result?Look forward to reading your thoughts.

[J.R.]

But if he had AQ or AK you were barely a favorite, and he could have a bigger pair. The issue becomes do you want to coast and wait till the short stacks bust out before mixing it up, is it worth it for you to risk your whole stack with three tables left?

You played to win, not to just get into the money and lost when you were a favorite. Good read. If your hand would have held up you would be singing a different tune.

I may be too weak here, but I wouldn't have called the raise as there is too much at risk with such a nice stack and only three tables left. I also would have raised the limper, by calling think you entice someone to try to steal a juicy pot with a big raise.

[sam h]

Whitey,

You'll win that matchup 68-72% of the time, depending on whether your opponent's holding was suited.

Against an unknown opponent, I would often pass in this situation but if you had good reason to believe he was stealing than a call is reasonable.

The caveat is that I'm not sure I would often be in this situation because I probably would have reraised before the flop.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You made a good read and got beat. It happens. You're about a 2-1 favorite going in.

Here's the only thing to think about: Would he have pushed in had you reraised first?

[ohkanada]

With JJ after an UTG raiser, I would either raise or fold. Normally I would re-raise.

Now that you call 800, you get re-raised for the remaining 9k of your stack and you call? I am confused, you either like JJ which means you should have re-raised initially or you don't like JJ which means after you call it seems an easy fold.

If you do have KK, I am guessing you would have re-raised and who knows if mr. a9 would have re-raised all-in, facing a raise and a re-raise.

I think calling a big all-in raise with JJ is a long term losing play. Against this opponent it obviously was correct since you had him dead to 3 outs, but I wouldn't make it a practice.

Be the raiser not the caller.

Ken Poklitar

[Whitey]

Actually I quite like JJ,but the small raise from the UTG put me off a bit,I did consider a re-raise and probably would have if I hadn't just joined the table.I guess I would of known more about his hand if I had re-raised and put the guy off who did go all-in off his bet.

BTW can someone post the formulae for working out probability or suggest a website I could get some examples off,I really wasnt sure of my odds if I was up against 1 over card.Guessed it was about 3-1.

[schroedinger]

For NL, I just put the hands in Wilson's Turbo Texas Hold 'Em and run 'em hot and cold (no bets, no folds).

Middle Pair (as I call this situation) in this situation (but with straights possible for the overcard) on my runs is a little greater than 7 to 3 if against a nonsuited hand and a little greater than 2 to 1 if the cards are suited.

On my computer, it takes about 6 minutes to run a million hand test and a million hands probably gives results that are accurate enough for these purposes.

It would also be possible to get the exact result by doing the math, but I think Turbo is easier and close enough.

[DoctorJ]

The definitive link for calculating these probabilities in a heartbeat is TwoDimes.net (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/)

Depending on the suits involved, you're slightly over a 7-to-3 favorite. Good read, but I agree with the other posters, JJ is a horrible hand to be calling big all-in raises with, unless you're extremely short-stacked, in which case you should have made the raise anyway!

DoctorJ

[maplepig]

reraise preflop, you are one of the bigger stack, people will be afraid of your raise, and muck their AQ or whatever. Most of the time, you will be heads up against UTG. Now if another big stack raises you allin, you can safely fold, there's little chance for you to have a favorable hand here, but if it's a small stack, you have the odds to call anyway. I think you will be a lot more comfortable if you raised another 1k here.