Did I get max value from my nut straight?

[chopchoi]

1/2 NL. I have $200. BB has me covered.

There's 1 limper already in. I'm in LP with AJ. I limp. BB raises to $6. Limper folds, I call.

Flop: KQx, rainbow. Limper bets $7. I call. I know I don't have the odds, but I figure implied odds are good, because if I make my straight, and he makes another 1/2 pot bet on the turn, and a decent bet on the river, he'll call a big raise.

Turn: T. He bets $7. Do I raise here or wait till the river? He's betting weak. I don't think he has much. Probably AQ. I decide to wait till the river. If I make it look like I'm trying to buy it, maybe he'll call.

River: x. He bets $7 again. I raise $21 more. He calls.

[EMcWilliams]

While I do not like the PF call at all, it would appear if the deep stacked villian has a hand he likes. THe implied odds seem about right, and I think you might have been able to hit the turn a little harder and re-raise the river more.

I think alot depends on what kind of read you have on villain. I would probably put him on top pair here. If you raised him 21 on the TURN, he would probably check the river to you.

[The_Bends]

I think your problem here is that you are too worried about trying to get an extra $15 out of him if he has air and not worried enough about how yu're going to get his stack in the middle if he has a decent hand.

Preflop I'd raise but limping is fine. On the flop I'd either fold or raise at about a 50:50 ratio depending on how strong I felt he was. A 1/2pb looks like a very strong hand that wants you in or a weak CB. If you raise and he calls you can assume you're behind but it might also buy you a free card on the turn to hit your gutshot. Pop it to $21 and see what he does

Anyway on the turn you've hit the nuts and hes still betting weakly. In my experience people trying to blow you off hands VERY rarely bet the same amount as failed to get you to fold last time. It makes no logical sense since if you called $7 into a $20 pot you're bound to call $7 into a $35 pot. I would therefore make the assumption that he has a strong hand, AK being an early favourate with QQ+KK equally possible and AA+KQ being a little way behind. Based on this you raise it up to $25 dollars. If he has anyone of those hands he'll beat you into the pot raising it up with the exception of AK and maybe AA which will probably call. If you get your reraise fantastic you can get both stacks in, if you get a call then you're in a great position to get a value bet called on the river.

So you can break it down like this

If he holds nothing and is bluffing

Call turn reraise river
+7 on turn +7 on river
+14

Raise turn
+7 on turn
+7

Therefore if he holds nothing you gain $7 by not raising the turn.

If he holds a weak hand that will call on the river but will be scared by a turn raise eg AQ JJ

call,raise
+7 on turn +21 on river
+28

raise
+7 on turn
+7

Call, raise line gains $21 over raise line

If he holds a great hand KK,QQ or KQ

call, raise
Money goes in on river

raise
Money goes in on turn and/or river

Both approaches the same

If he holds a strong hand but not exceptional AK/AA that will call down under pressure

call raise
+7, +21
+28

raise raise
+25 + 40
+65

+37 to the raising line

If you make these assumptions then raising seems the strongest options. Especailyl whenthe odds of him having nothing seem minimal given the board texture, the fact he raised out of the blinds and his weak betting.

Simplified analysis that doens't take into account things like the board pairing but I still think it shows that the agressive approach get more out of marginal hands than you lose from the weaker hands even if you make pessamistic assumptions about his ability to call on the river as opposed to the turn.

[emil3000]

Yeah, the thing about making broadway is that there is often three high cards on board. These high cards figure to hit you opponent pretty good too. So with broadway you raise big and hope he wants to commit. I try to think positive when I have the nuts, just bet big and hope someone will play with me. That is simple advice in a complex game but it works pretty good.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience people trying to blow you off hands VERY rarely bet the same amount as failed to get you to fold last time. It makes no logical sense since if you called $7 into a $20 pot you're bound to call $7 into a $35 pot. I would therefore make the assumption that he has a strong hand,

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree. Many people make weak continuation bets because they don't want to lose any real money on the hand. I generally interpret those bets to mean, "I have a hand but not too strong... so I'm going to bet enough to let you know I have something and give you a chance to fold, but if you come back at me, I might fold."

Once in awhile you might come into a tricky player who will underbet into an aggressive player fishing for a raise or trying to build the pot while giving you a chance to catch up...

More important to the original post... if you're going to make the call to a one-way straight draw, then you're NOT making your implied odds by allowing him to keep the pot so small. You were only going to hit your straight about 1 in 7 times on the next card. You've got to make $49 off of him (and what's already in the pot) to make this call. You're not going to make this with 2 rounds to go when he's betting so weakly. Unless you know you can go straight for a $30 bet on the river, you should raise now. Note: if you have reason to believe this particular player will call an overbet on the river, then fine. But since I wouldn't assume that, I raise. Furthermore, you are giving him free cards to split the pot or beat you. Get money in now.