$33: JJ facing raise on the bubble.

[xJMPx]

The villain in this hand has made some questionable raises through out the game. However, I don't recall any really donkish calls on his part.

Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Villain (3270)
Button (1900)
SB (770)
BB: HERO (2060)
Dealt to HERO [ Jd, Jh ]
Villain raises (700) to 700
2 folds.
DevinLake ????

[mike28]

What are the blinds?

I reall don't see myself not pushing here tho.

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the blinds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry about that. The blinds are 75/150, which made me think by the size of his raise that he didn't want any action here.

[sofere]

Small stack is not nearly small enough to make this a fold. Barring any strong reads, push and take the chip lead. Then use it better than he did.

[xJMPx]

Anyone else?

I close my eyes and push.

The 700 raise is saying that he has a hand that does not mind a showdown with the small stack, it has nothing to do with wanting action or not. I would push here.

[ravensfan]

Is this one fulltilt or Pokerstars? If so, then the blind structures make it less profitable to gamble as well, since there's more time and less need to force the action given ur stack size.

I'm folding.
I'm 2nd stack, the smallest stack has only 5x bb after he folds. Let's say you win the race and are chip leader, how likely is it that you win?
I'd say it depends on your HU play, but likely 2-1 that you win first.... So, let's say that by winning a showdown you win say 4.3 x(?)buyin.
Now let's say you fold and survive to the money (easy enough given the situation), if you're a strong player (2+2), then let's say that you win 3x buyin (ie. you hold your spot).
Well, if you push and it'd be a coinflip, he's calling and you're losing EV big time (probably EV is 2.5x buyin). If he has just one overcard, then isn't it about 30% likely that he wins anyway - so he probably calls?! If he calls, then you're slightly -EV. I'm assuming he's as likely to have an overpair as an underpair if he calls...

Also thinking he wouldn't have put $700 down if he wasn't willing to call a push, as he was probably targeting your blinds...

I'd say that unless he has shown he's loose, then it's a fold... especially since it's possible to have a large ROI and therefore maybe not worth a marginal call...

Beyond this it's read dependent, your table image and his table image...

AM I TOO TIGHT PASSIVE?

[xJMPx]

ravensfan, you make some good points although I have a hard time following some of your #x buyin talk, but I think I got the jist.

To address a couple of your points specifically. This is a Party Poker sng.

You say you don't think he'd bet 700 if he wasn't going to call a push. Betting 700 leaves him ~2500 behind, I think I have huge fold equity here. I think the raise says he's willing to invest enough to knock off the short stack, but he has an exit plan if a bigger stack comes over the top.

However, I did certainly considered folding this hand, as the small stack is at risk of being blinded off. However, one double up and he's right back in it and if it's through me I'm suddenly in trouble. I'd made it into the money quite a bit this night, however I was squeeking into the money and finishing 3rd too often. I wanted to play for first here, now that I had some chips.

Also, I had seen this guy make some very questionable raises through out the game and the size of the bet made be think it was not all that likely to be an over pair.

So, my thinking was...if I get called it's most likely two overs, which I'm a coinflip. I don't like this, but I think it's not happening very often here. But, I was confident that he would lay this down a very large precentage of time because my stack could seriously hurt his and was not offering great odds to call.

I think you've neglected in your post large percentage of time he folds here. What do you need to call here? I'm probably something like QQ+ in his spot.

Thoughts?

[ravensfan]

Hey Devin,

Sorry about the length, this will explain my logic:
My point in *Buyin is about seeing the tourney as a whole. I was thinking that you'd want to estimate how much actual loot you'd take from the tourney based on this hand. In the end, it's all about how much money you keep. So, i guess i arbitrarily made up some numbers, but what i was trying to say was that you could clearly expect to make more money from this thing by folding IF he happened to call you.

If he was equally likely to have one or two overcards then it's very EV for him to do so (i believe it's pretty close to even for him to call with Axs, Kxs, Qxs, actually). Therefore, assuming he could put you on as good a hand as Js, you could still expect him to call... In which case, it's bad to push.
Maybe i'm losing it, does this make sense?

Then again, maybe he puts you on A10+ or something and doesn't feel like being dominated?! Or giving up his large stack that he's been wielding?! Or maybe he just thinks you're willing to race b/c he's been bullying the table and someone is bluffing into him... I think it's a little read-dependent for these reasons. I think though, these combine to reduce your FE.

That said, i've likely underestimated your FE, and depending on how frequent his raises were and how loose he is, he might very well fold, as he'd wish to wield his chips in the future... So, it's probably a little closer than I first thought.

I suppose that since he hadn't made too many donkish plays, I'd put him on a relatively good hand when betting into you, then again you had mentioned that he'd made a few raises...
Thing is, i think he gets good potodds if he has say Ax. I think his pot odds are correct to call (if he's only thinking about chips totals and not chip values). And it could be really hard for him to put you on Js, so he might think he's getting great odds with whatever he has versus two others, or maybe he puts you on something like 7s-9s...


I just figured that he was getting good pot odds and would likely call, especially if he wasn't donkish.

I was actually basing it on the FTOP, and assuming he has at least one, maybe two over cards, he has reasonable EV to call (i'm too tired to do the math, but i'd think it's close... if he has 2 overcards, he has very very +EV).

I just noticed, but isn't it funny how by racing you'll have less combined expected payout than by not racing - as in some of your expected return is given to the other players! (incidentally i believe this leads directly into game theory)... i guess this is why it's in everyone left in the hand's best interests to avoid a race (and this spot is more likely leading into a race) /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ravensfan]

So, here's what i'd do in order:
1) Fold and wait for the right time to initiate betting - likely once the tourney is a little more clarified
2) Call, and push if an Ace or King doesn't appear... if i'm feeling really tight, then I only push if i have top pair.
3) Push - don't like it too much here, maybe b/c 150 is a small %age of your stack...

Then again, i seem to be in the minority.

AK, QQ+ i'm playing for sure. But with AK, i'm only calling and trying to play the flop a little bit - probably slow play that if i hit the flop and betting if i miss it and he doesn't bet into me. Yeah, I'd push QQ, b/c even IF he has an Ace, it's far less likely we're racing. And I'll gladly take 70/30 (hard to put it at 70/30 with Js, since KQ or AQ are possible, especially when you consider that KJ, QJ, and AJ are unlikely).

[caretaker1]

EZ Push against his likely range.

$.02

[xJMPx]

Based on the comments I get I have come to the following conclusion. This play is totally read dependent.

If I think this is a decent player who'll only call with a very strong holding such as QQ+/AK then I'd push this hand.

However, if this player is a donky (which I thought he was) I should fold this because he could call with a large range of hands. Most of which I am way ahead of, however not so far ahead (i.e., 70/30) that I want to be putting my tournament life in jeopardy on the bubble and sacrificing $EV even though it's a +cEV.

Calling is also an option, and dumping the hand if overs appear on the flop, pushing if there are no overs.

Results:

HERO raises (1910) to 2060
HERO is all-In.
Villain calls (1360) (after a long pause)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, Kh, 6s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
Villain shows [ 5s Ks ] [ a straight ]
HERO shows [ Jd Jh ] [ a pair of jacks ]

So I was offering him exactly 33% pot odds, while he had a hand that was 32.1% (pokerstove). Gutzy (wink) call. He went on the win the tournament.

Just a quick observation...i think this is your 3rd post in a week regarding playing JJ. You struggling with this hand?

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a quick observation...i think this is your 3rd post in a week regarding playing JJ. You struggling with this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think most would agree that JJ is a difficult hand to play. However, this is actually my first post about JJ.

And actually, I'm more interested in the bubble theory than JJ specifically in this case.

Agreed. Since I commented, i might as well give some feedback.

Dont quite know what the blinds are, but I would push this. Very solid hand, could take it down with a push here. In this situation, I would have to assume you are ahead and would quickly push this hand...pray it holds up.

[ravensfan]

I agree... however, i'd push even if putting him only on any 2 overcards... ie. 6hands that could call you.
I still think he's too unlikely to have one of these to make it worth not pushing - probabilistically.
Hard to put him on that though, especially when he's raising so often!
so, i guess any time your pair splits an over and a suited it's about 2-1 only? Still seems so rough when it happens.

Not so sure it was too donkish to call: worst case, he has 3 outs plus a flush draw (but only if he puts you at AK, be hard to assume you'd push say KQ in your spot). More likely, he's up against AQ, AJ, A10, 77+... too lazy to work out the permutations, but it might be 45% that you have an Ahigh, and 55% that you have a splitting pair, in which case it's an =EV call.
Tough one, but i'm not hating him for it...


What's everyone think?

[SCfuji]

hes leaving room to be able to fold, push.

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
More likely, he's up against AQ, AJ, A10, 77+... too lazy to work out the permutations, but it might be 45% that you have an Ahigh, and 55% that you have a splitting pair, in which case it's an =EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to have to disagree on what he should think my range is here. From his perspective, he has just seen a player that he can eliminate come over the top of a significant raise.

What hands are going to do this? AA/KK/QQ are certainly possibilities. JJ, TT, 99 are getting less likely. AKs maybe, and a further stretch maybe AQs.

So, his best case scenario is the AQs. He's about 35% here (remember, he's only getting 33% on pot odds).

Next best case, a pocket pair lower than KK. He's about 30% here.

And of course, AA/KK he's 20% at best.

So what is he putting me on? Based on his call, must have been a K with a lower kicker, or Qx for him to be a favourite. For him to be getting odds, AQ-? Is this reasonable when I have not been a maniac at this table?

Cheers.

Ps. I'm enjoying this discussion, it's really making me think this through. Will help next time I'm in this position for sure.

[ QUOTE ]
EZ Push against his likely range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. If we assume the hand he actually had is the worst hand he'll raise/call with, hero's $EV is -1.3% according to SNGPT, and I'd normally expect villain to have a tighter range than this.

This assumes villain will call a push, of course, which is really a poor play on his part here with K5s. Pushing first in with K5s isn't horrible on villain's part, but it doesn't make the +0.5% EV standard if we make hero and button tight and SB maniac. QQ is a fold here against K5s+ as villain's range here, too. Presumably hero needs to be this tight because he's up against the one stack who can bust him, and it'll happen often enough that he (and villain) are both effectively bleeding equity to the other two players by butting heads here. Also, there's the fact that at this point the shorty's reasonably desperate by comparison to everyone else, and hero ought to be able to use this fact to attack button/shorty selectively.

Could we be over-thinking this...here is why i say that:

First, we are only 4 handed here, so play loosens up considerably. I make raises like this often because it puts one potential raiser (button on this hand) in the middle of a bet that if the shortstack decides to play, hes gonna push. therefore, if the button calls, he better be prepared for a push because you came out strong and showed strength...and if hes not gonna push here, he wont limp either, so he will fold. if the SB pushes, now you are in the middle because if you call, he can come over the top and put you all in. so, if you arent willing to push, you will likely fold here. so, that means mission accomplished for him, he either gets heads up against the shortstack or he takes the blinds.

I make this type of move and its quite successful for isolating the shortstack. and i dont like it when someone pushes here, so i would push.

[xJMPx]

I must have been runing this through SNGPT (just got it today!) as ciaran was posting.

Using the following range for the villain.: 22+,A2+,KTo+,K5s+ for the villain.

And assuming he'll call my push (ie. setting SNGPT as if Villain has pushed), this is -1.1% $EV.

I am going to look at this a different way than ciaran however. I think because this is not a hugely -$EV situation (maybe I'm wrong, how big a difference is -1.1% and say -0.5%? I'm new to SNGPT) that pushing here brings this to a +$EV because of the large percentage of time the villain folds. Remember, the -1.1% assumes he'll call.

[Ogre]

the read you have makes this a pretty easy push. if the short stack had a few less BBs it would be a fold

[caretaker1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EZ Push against his likely range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd normally expect villain to have a tighter range than this.



[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Against this range, is it still -$EV?

[ravensfan]

Hey Devin,

The reason I thought he'd put you on a looser hand range is due to the fact that: a) he's been raising a fair bit, and you're probably trying to punish him - i dunno call it the "aggravation factor", or the "he thinks i have sh*t, so he's playing top 1/3 hands factor" or whatever... b) his weak raise of $700 is begging for you to come over the top, especially given his recent history, therefore it might be nothing more than a semi-positional play. If i were in his position and made that weak-ass raise, i'd suspect that you might very well have only top 1/3.

The important question is: why raise $700 if you're going to call a push with K5s? Wouldn't he have had much greater FE by just pushing? Seems he didn't think more than one step ahead!!

[ravensfan]

Should we put him on 22-55?

[me1tdown]

I think you should put the villian on your favorites list.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EZ Push against his likely range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd normally expect villain to have a tighter range than this.



[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Against this range, is it still -$EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

The tighter his range, the more likely he is to call a push, and given that playing JJ against his K5s here (if you knew that's what he had and he'd call a push) is -0.5% $EV, the tighter he is the worse it is for hero.

Basically, for hero's push here to be a good play, villain has to fold a lot of the semi-crap hands he could be stealing with, and given villain's raise and stack (and donkish image) he's probably, or very nearly, justified (or will think he is) in calling a push with a lot of those semi-crap hands.

All these results are due primarily to the stack situation and villain's relative cluelessness. If hero swaps stacks with villain, this becomes an easy push even if villain falls in the tight range in SNGPT (66+/ATs+/AJo+). Likewise, if villain has shown he'll fold to a re-steal in the past, pushing over the top off him will work (and probably with much lesser hands than JJ).

To change the question a little, how would everyone feel about hero calling if villain had open pushed?

[ravensfan]

That was I was thinking...

[ravensfan]

Fold: be hard to put him on less than K5s, which is apparently -0.5 when villian calls a push. Since you're -EV when he has the worst, it can only get worse, given he has at least one overcard. Probability of underpair should not significantly change this, from an overall tournament perspective IMO. Particularly since if he's been raising 2.5-4.5x BB ish lately, a push should imply he's on a better hand, more often than not - why bluff away his commanding stack with say, 84o when the small bets seem to work.
Small stack and 3rd may start getting desperate soon, so sit back and pick a better spot.

[DyessMan89]

This is extremly close, but Im folding this. Unless hes an extreme Donk, this should be layed down. The short stack is in desperation mode, and I dont think its worth busting out in 4th when you could fold your way to atleast a cash, if not 2nd or 1st. I dont think you NEED this hand.