OT: Overcoming the Gambler's Mindset

I used to play a lot of blackjack. While I knew the odds were stacked against me, I was always very good about winning a few units and walking away. I knew I could beat the odds in the short run and would take my winnings and run. When I made the transition to poker, I found myself doing the same. Because the two games are so different, I know I need to adjust my "walk-away" threshholds. After some thinking, I had the following questions that I was hoping to get some insight on.

When you are playing sngs, 20+ a day, what do you look at when making your decision to start up another set or to call it a day? Are you looking at +/- for the session, do you shoot for a number (20 a day) and re-evaluate whether you should play more once you hit the number?

I find that I often start slow and come on strong to finish up for the day. For example, this is not uncommon for me. I started 0/6 the other day, but finished 1, 8, 2, 2, 3, 1. If you start slow and come on strong, would you continue to play because you are making good decisions and your hands appear to be holding up? Or, if you hit your 20 that day, ended strong and were up 6 buy ins, would you walk away for the night?

In terms of losing, do you set a daily loss limit? Lets say you are 8 sngs into your 20/day target and you are down 8 buy ins. Do you call it a day and have at it tomorrow, or do you power through the 20 and see where you stand when the dust clears?

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

You can win in the short run, but it's not the same as beating the odds. All sessions really add up to one big session. If you're counting cards and betting properly and not getting any heat then you might be able to "beat the odds".

In poker, as any gambling, if you have an edge, you play. If you don't have an edge, for whatever reason, tired, sick, distracted, low skill level, up against players you cannot beat, then you don't play.

Work on your decision making, your game. If you do this long enough you'll have losing streaks long enough to make you think you'll never win again.

The best way to overcome a gambler's mindset is to not have one in the first place.

EDIT: To address other portions of your post, I would set a goal for each day based on your longer term goals. As long as I were confident that I were playing well, I'd continue until I met that goal, regardless of the short term outcomes. If the day ended on a high note, I'd still quit, time to eat, socialize, take a break, get out of the house, live life.

thanks for the reply. I am happy with my game and believe it is profitable and sustainable. But I am sure we all think that about our own game.

I have read it before, to think of every day as an extension of the previous, or as one continuous session.

So I guess the answer is to just play until you hit your goal, and quit for the day, regardless if you end on a high note or with a bad beat, whether you are up or down. Set goals and stick to them, the $$ will take care of themselves.

You don't understand probability. Trials are independent. The cards on a blackjack table have absolutely no idea who you are, how long you've been there, how much you're betting, or how much you like money. If you play 5 hands of blackjack every day for 1 million days, congratualations on playing 5k hands of blackjack, but don't think you've somehow beaten the law of large numbers. ALso, if you play one hand of blackjack, you win it like 49%, so the majority of the time you lose and your expected value is negative. You're throwing away money no matter what at the blackjack table, so only play if you're actually enjoying it.

Similarly, the random number generators on online poker sites don't decide to continue a hot streak or not to continue a hot streak, they just spit out numbers at random. If you're making your decisions based on whether or not you think you're on a hot streak, or crackpot theories about having a better expected value in the short run, you're not playing optimally and probably are playing badly.

Exactly! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Dude, dont assume anything, its a mindset, not an understanding issue. I understand probability. it is a matter of preference in a sense, risk aversion, etc.

second, dont fixate on blackjack, i havent played in a long time, i was just stating an example and games i used to play. your points are already known to me, therefore not helpful. i already said BJ is a -EV game, no need to write a paragraph on it.

I understand that cards, regardless if online or in live games, are random. But for you to say there is no hot or cold steaks also implies no heaters or variance. I think I have a better understanding of this stuff than you think...maybe yours is a bit questionable.

You said this:

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I knew I could beat the odds in the short run and would take my winnings and run.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you made a typo and meant to say "I thought I could beat the odds in the short run, and was lucky enough to come out ahead and not play anymore," you don't understand probability. Given the slant of the rest of what you said, you don't understand probability.

This is very bad for poker and I suggest that you think about it.

As for heaters and cold streaks, they certainly happen, but it's important to understand that they don't perpetuate themselves. This question:

[ QUOTE ]
would you continue to play because you are making good decisions and your hands appear to be holding up?

[/ QUOTE ]

gives me the impression that you don't understand this. Winning your last 20 coinflips doesn't change the odds of your 21st coinflip.

It's possible that you have heard these comments and know them to be true, but simply do not understand their application yet. However, you do not understand probabilty.

I'm trying to help you. I promise I'm right. Please learn not to think about gambling mathematically and not in terms of luck and streak and short-run fluctuations.

Sorry man, but Noah is right. Your statements are filled with flawed beliefs of hot streaks and bad streaks continuing.

[ QUOTE ]

I find that I often start slow and come on strong to finish up for the day. For example, this is not uncommon for me. I started 0/6 the other day, but finished 1, 8, 2, 2, 3, 1. If you start slow and come on strong, would you continue to play because you are making good decisions and your hands appear to be holding up? Or, if you hit your 20 that day, ended strong and were up 6 buy ins, would you walk away for the night?


[/ QUOTE ]

This is just a superstition in many different ways and you should see why.

Edit: If it's a mindset and not an understanding issue, it's still very harmful to your game and you should get rid of it.

To clarify, what you said about playing better after warming up is a perfectly valid thing to discuss, although you need a large sample size and accurate records (not one day's play, but 1k SnGs at least) to verify that you're not just looking at variance. If it turns out that you do play better after warming up, then you should

a) review your hand histories and see how your play changes and try to incorporate this into your "early" playing style,

b) try starting off the day at lower stakes (don't do this if you still have +ROI early in the day),

c) read these boards before playing to get yourself thinking analytically, and

d) play longer sessions (unless you get burnt out).

[ewing55]

My Oct Goals are 930 SnGs, so I need to play an average of 30 a day. I have made my schedule so I play 6 hours a day in one session, with a hour dinner break in the middle. I 4 table and can do about 6 SnGs an hour, so 6 hours times 6 SnGs means I should be playing about 36 SnGs a day, so I have some time/days to spare. If I feel I am not playing well, I'll quit early or take a day off, etc and/or adjust my dinner break up or back.

I am also trying to move up to the 33s. So I started adding in 1 33s table to my normal rotation. As long as I can keep a 15% ROI I will continue to add 33s as I can. If not I drop down and regroup. (Right now, I'm back to only 22's /images/graemlins/mad.gif )

Winning or losing is not important in my mind. As long as I feel I am playing well, I play. (Of course it does effect how I feel I'm playing. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif )

That's my strategy for October and I think that kind of answers what you were asking.

Now STAY OFF MY TABLES!!! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

------------------Jeff

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the reply. I am happy with my game and believe it is profitable and sustainable. But I am sure we all think that about our own game.

I have read it before, to think of every day as an extension of the previous, or as one continuous session.

So I guess the answer is to just play until you hit your goal, and quit for the day, regardless if you end on a high note or with a bad beat, whether you are up or down. Set goals and stick to them, the $$ will take care of themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly how I play.

you are making inferrences incorrectly, sorry bro. You are reading into what i was saying in terms of BJ as a game i used to play quite a bit. I realize that coin flips are exactly that, 50/50 regardless of how many times you win or lose consecutively, i know that and to infer otherwise is silly.

i dont feel like wasting my time on your replies because they dont help me, i understand what you are saying. i am trying to overcome irrational thinking/the wrong mindset, and it has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH MY UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY. You are misreading the questions as most do here and decide to type an answer that has nothing to do with the question.

Plus, short term, you can win in BJ. I wasnt trying to win money long term, just fun money for partying. you need to understand the context of the question. I dont think you have an understanding of the english language. Trust me, IM RIGHT.

What I am saying is these streaks run like this...i cant tell you how many times i have had bad beat (getting all my money in with the best hand, not coin flips, and losing). my understanding of probability is sound, but an 80/20 hand, where my Aces lost to 6s, luck is a factor. whether you want to believe luck runs in streaks or not, thats up to you, but to say that is has no effect is stupid to me...again, its like saying i want to take a month off, should i do it in the middle of a heater? well, most would say no, but you would say that statistically, it doesnt matter. I agree, but i would still say dont take the break in the middle of a heater. Do you understand why I say that?

You understand what everyone's telling you. Yes, short term you could consider "luck" a factor. But put those Aces up against sixes a million times over and the Aces will be a huge winner. That's what it's all about.

And if you're in the middle of a "heater" and don't want to stop, that doesn't make sense. How do you know that that next game isn't going to be the end of your "heater"? Or if you quit and begin playing the next day that you're "heater" won't continue? You don't. It is not and should not be a factor for you. You can't predict streaks. You just continue to do the right thing over and over and over again.

Agreed, it is a potential problem, hence my post.

Wow, people get off the topic. But havent you experienced streaks where your hand is a solid favorite (not coin flip situations) and you continually lose? then, all of a sudden, they happen to start holding up? If you havent noticed that, i think you are not paying attention. agreed that just because they are holding up doesnt mean they will in the next sng, i understand that, but again, if you believe in heaters and variance, then you should also put some faith in what i have said because what do you think the source of heaters is...positive variance? and why does positive variance occur, maybe because all of your hands happen to start holding up...am i wrong there?

Agreed. And that is part of the question really. So, all i was really asking was should i keep playing or stop. and apparently the answer is, it really doesnt matter. play, stop, do whatever, but play consistently.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
Plus, short term, you can win in BJ. I wasnt trying to win money long term, just fun money for partying.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by win you mean you expect to win more then you lose (which it seems is what you are trying to infer) then no you can't. Unfortunatly you got lucky and now a problem of results oriented learning has continued into poker.

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Trust me, IM RIGHT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Famous last words.

Dang, I am shooting for 400 sngs for the month on the 33s. I have been running hot, so it hasnt been too hard to keep pace. I try to play about 12 a night. But, i am still a slave to the grind, so sometimes its hard to come home and play. i need to find a conducive environment at home to stay focused, otherwise i end up having a few cocktails and smoke a bowl and thats the end of that. My name no longer holds up, Blaze_n_Veg is more accurate now.

/images/graemlins/blush.gif) I was joking about IM RIGHT, just being a jerk, sorry.

See, this is what i mean by someone getting off topic early by fixating on the wrong part of a post. I know that results oriented thinking is part of the gambler's mindset, so i posted here looking for some insight in over coming it...i have recognized it. Thankfully, it hasnt affected my bankroll. I have an ROI of about 32% over my past 400 $33 sngs. I mean, I am confident about my play, I realize i need even more to have better, more reliable stats, but my numbers can absorb a few bad runs and still prove profitable. So, the reason for my post was I am confident that my game will remain +EV, but I was trying to figure out if when you end your daily session, if there were any piece of information to help me make that decision. But i have found the answer is no. just set a goal and play to it every day...thats all I was asking...the background i was giving to tell you why i had this mindset set everyone off...next time, i will just refrain from giving too much info. sorry.

[Manque]

I don't understand. What exactly is superstitous about what he said?

[ QUOTE ]
Do you understand why I say that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There are two possible reasons:

1) because you play better when you're in a good mood, or
2) because you don't want to believe what you just told me.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

I would say #1

#2, again dude, you got fixated on wrong part of my post...i already said i had gamblers mentality, get over yourself.

way to hammer home a point that I was posting to help address...go post somewhere else.

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, it is a potential problem, hence my post.

Wow, people get off the topic. But havent you experienced streaks where your hand is a solid favorite (not coin flip situations) and you continually lose? then, all of a sudden, they happen to start holding up? If you havent noticed that, i think you are not paying attention. agreed that just because they are holding up doesnt mean they will in the next sng, i understand that, but again, if you believe in heaters and variance, then you should also put some faith in what i have said because what do you think the source of heaters is...positive variance? and why does positive variance occur, maybe because all of your hands happen to start holding up...am i wrong there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Please just don't look for patterns in your luck. It really is very bad. This is very much related to the title of your post, btw, and it's a very important topic in terms of your ROI, so I think that if you'd titled your post "please don't mention my view on luck anywhere", I still should point it out.

Manque,

I think people on here are funny because they say things like superstitions are this and luck is that and they just "go by the statistics" because they read the people's posts that they think are good and use what they say as law. I am not that insecure about my thinking...

They call it superstitious, but i call it legit. Heaters are what, good cards that hold up and they happen to occur in a short period of time. You can call it luck, superstition, positive variance, its all the same thing, but because i didnt use the term positive variance, they are saying i am superstitious. but they dont realize its all the same thing.

...We aren't being off topic at all, look at the thread title. If what you asked was your true intentions, then your title is heavily misleading because you're asking for a way to compensate for your gambler's mindset, not a way to overcome it. As you defend yourself, the questions you're supposedly trying to ask becomes less and less about your mindset but more about simply how long you can play.

If you had the stamina like most of the people who 8-table, then there is no limit as to how much or how long you should play. If you don't, then quit when you're tired or burnt out and continue while you're awake and sharp. This has nothing to do with a gambler's mindset at all.

help me out here noah...i am interested in what you are saying here...

Help me understand the difference between a heater or good run of cards and a continuation of your good fortune of your hands holding up. I ask this because thats essentially what we are talking about here. i said that if i am "running hot" late in my session, should i continue. and people were telling me it has no bearing on your next sng, so it doesnt matter if you quit or not.

While I do 100% agree that past success has no bearing on future success and that just because my hands are holding up this sng doesnt mean it will last to the next. However, consider the following:

lets say your long term ROi is 15% and over your last 100 sngs you are running 30+%. Something has changed...what is it? Luck? I am interested to know...i know the answer everyone will give, positive variance, but what is that exactly...i know in statistical terms, but explain it to me in poker terms. I just have a feeling its exactly what i have been talking about.

[ QUOTE ]
Manque,

I think people on here are funny because they say things like superstitions are this and luck is that and they just "go by the statistics" because they read the people's posts that they think are good and use what they say as law. I am not that insecure about my thinking...

They call it superstitious, but i call it legit. Heaters are what, good cards that hold up and they happen to occur in a short period of time. You can call it luck, superstition, positive variance, its all the same thing, but because i didnt use the term positive variance, they are saying i am superstitious. but they dont realize its all the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, we're calling you superstitious because you seem to suggest that you should respond in some way to positive variance. The best response to variance, positive or negative is to not respond at all because absolutely nothing has changed. You're playing a game of chance. The reason that there are good and bad streaks is because there are a bunch of randomly distributed good things or bad things, so sometimes they're close to each other.

[ QUOTE ]

lets say your long term ROi is 15% and over your last 100 sngs you are running 30+%. Something has changed...what is it? Luck?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, it's luck, but you shouldn't respond to it. Luck is a part of poker that should be ignored because it's completely unpredictable.

Talking about probability in this way is very frustrating. All I want you to come away from this with is that you should ignore your inevitable lucky streaks because thinking about them is -EV. I'm suspicious that you've heard this but still aren't following the advice. If I'm wrong about this, I'm sorry for wasting your time, but you REALLY said a lot of things in this thread that suggest otherwise. Please consider this.

I'll drop out of this thread now.

[lacky]

i try very hard to reach a # of hours a week goal and ignore all the rest. There is so much varience that how i'm doing on any givin day is just random noise. I know from 1000's of hours of play I can average so much per hour, so my only goal is to play enough hours playing well. The rest takes care of itself eventually.

Steve

[TheNoodleMan]

Ignore NoahSD at your own peril. He is trying to help you. The sooner you accept this the better off you will be.

I'll try to make it as simple as I can here.

A heater is positive variance, as you said. A bad run is negative variance as you said. So why adjust to it? Is there some way you can play that will stop or continue your winning/losing streak? No, there is not. The only thing you can do is to play your best. Luck is part of poker, but what's the point of letting it determine whether you should call it a day or not?

What I'm trying to say is that the only way that you can get the best result is to play your best. That's all you can do. Whether you didn't win a single tournament or won 20 in a row has absolutely no impact on what you should do for the next one.

The fact that you defend your point in terms of your hands holding up or not shows that you do not have a complete understanding of this simple theory. If you got sucked out on a 3-to-1 favorite, then does that not mean that you played it well? If you got sucked out on a 3-to-1 favorite for 8 hands in a row, does that not mean you played it fantastic? This is the type of thing you should look for, not whether you won or lost.

Im not ignoring him, i just think there is a disconnect between what i was asking and what he was offering. I understand his points, but we were talking apples and oranges.

[Slim Pickens]

You've identified your condition in your post title, but the body of your post doesn't address it. Others have made the point that the body of your post really needs to be "How do I overcome the 'Gambler's Mindset' that's making me think of poker in terms of responses to luck and streaks instead of responses to position and stacks and cards?"

Good question. I made a 200-tournament excursion into 8-tabling the 11's recently, down from 4-tabling the 33's. 4-tabling, I can watch every hand on every table, watch every hand play out on every table, and remember the outcome, especially if it was unexpected and involving me. I could never quite get over remembering my bad luck, having it put me in a bad mood, then finally make me play bad. 8-tabling for a while (well below my bankroll, thankfully) changed that. It was too much for me to pay attention to all eight tables all the time. I had the mental energy to make my plays with only the information presented by my position and cards, the stacks, and my PT database. Decision made... next table... no time to even notice if my push with 77 got called by 55 and lost. I won't remember which table it was where I pushed 77 and I wouldn't have even seen the suckout. The only analysis that hand would ever get would be a quick run through SNGPT later on. 8-tabling was a little more than my brain can handle right now at the 33's (a little more thinking/table than the 11's) so I'm back to 4-tabling. The change is noticable. Last night, I played two sets, and in the middle of the third realized I had no idea how I was running. Was I up or down for the day? Was I running good or bad? There had been a few suckouts and a few hands that held up, but how many? What I remembered was the decisions. Raised AJ here... folded it there. Stuff like that. It was a world apart from before the mind-stretch. Add some tables for an extended period. See if that removes your fixation with these nonexistent "characteristics" of luck.

Agreed, but you dont have to dumb it down...i guess i went off topic a bit because i am not really using a good run as a reason to play more. I was just asking that if you were running good, would you still quit if you hit your target number for the day...all you had to say was no.

Just so you know, i dont use how my cards are running as a reason to keep playing. What i have been doing is i play until i am sick of playing because i feel that is when my play deteriorates...sometimes asking questions and trying to play devil's advocate here is a death sentence. positive/negative variance, luck, hands holding up, bad beats...all one big circle. but, i do not use these things to make decisions on whether to continue playing, so i guess that is why i was shoving people's answers back at them...i dont use them, but i was wondering when people would quit for the day and what would affect your decision. and...i have a sneaking suspicion that many people let the results of their current session dictate their session length, but after this thread, they are afraid to admit it.

By the way, I hope you can see why Noah was trying to explain to you something that you didn't ask for. It's simply because by following his logic, you should come to the conclusion that your original question is completely pointless given that you were asking when to quit or keep going based on result-oriented thinking.

You're still a little off, and there's a very big reason why I can't just say 'no'.

[ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but you dont have to dumb it down...i guess i went off topic a bit because i am not really using a good run as a reason to play more. I was just asking that if you were running good, would you still quit if you hit your target number for the day...all you had to say was no.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to say that you should not set a target number. Do you see why given my logic? That's why I'm dumbing it down for you.

Well, I knew my thinking was flawed, i just knew it was. and i posted it because i knew i was thinking with a gambler's mindset. i knew i had to adjust my thinking to this game because it is a game of skill. while i believe the way i have been playing has been proven to work out great, i when i hit some hard times, i will need to power thru them and have confidence in myself and my game. thats what i was trying to solicit here. i guess to me, the bottom line is - if your ROI is +, than you should play as many as you can as long as you are playing well...thats it. stop when your play falls off, start when refreshed and focused. do i finally have it? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Yeeees that's it! That nailed it perfectly!

I am kinda tired of this post /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

But thanks for your reply and i will respond because you took the time. Well, tell me if this is right...

as long as you are a +EV player, the bottom line is you should play as many sngs as possible as long as you are playing your game (meaning +EV). so, regardless of whether you are in the middle of a major heater or the coldest streak ever, short term variance will work itself out and things will end up back to your true ROI...so just keep playing as long as you are playing well and everything will take care of itself.

Thanks to all and especially Noah for your patience.

[Manque]

Well I'm pretty sure the OP said that variance does affect him, not that it should. And to be honest if I got sucked out 6 times in a row I'd be pretty upset, even knowing that it will all even out in the end.

Just thought that here was an interesting quote from curtain's blog:

I will allow myself to play extra if I'm doing extremely well.

I agree it doesnt matter, but even someone as successful and someone that understands statistics and probability even does exactly what i was asking about. Should I keep playing if i am doing well, or should i quit because I hit my target. sorry to get him in teh middle, but at some points, we all think this way.

Well...I don't think 'this way' but I do play extra if I'm doing extremely well. I'm not speaking for curtains here, but my definition of 'extremely well' is when I'm making all the right moves and winning it all. In such days, I'm naturally inclined to believe that I am playing my best game and I'll continue doing so.

well, as poorly and unclearly as i stated in my original post, this is really what i was getting at. And i do the opposite, if i am running well and cash a bunch in a row, i quit instead of continuing to play and i believe that is the opposite of what most would do on here...but i didnt know if it really mattered, ie. affected my ROI. And from our thread, i think the answer was no, it wouldnt matter if i fired more up immediately or waited until the next day. helpful thread for me though and thanks for all of your input!

[Mr_J]

Depends on the person.

If we played the same no matter how well we were running, then we should put in the amount of time we wanted to.

The only reason you should stop playing is if something is affecting your play so much that your EV becomes not worthwhile. So if you usually hit 20% and are playing poorly and hitting 10% in EV terms, then you should still play if that 10% gives you a worthwile hourly rate.

If you run well and quit sooner than expected, you're actually leaving money on the table. If you run poorly and are playing poorly, you should still keep playing as long as your aren't giving up enough EV that it's not worthwhile.