LO8 hand - flopped nut flush, no low for me [Archive]

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Alchemist

10-05-2005, 11:47 AM

I'm in the BB of a loose $1/2 limit game.

I get K /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif and get 3 limpers and a poster OTB who checks and the SB completes.

Six of us see the flop of A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, I bet, 2 calls, LP raises, call, call, I reraise, everyone calls.

Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB checks. Pot is getting very big now and no one is going anywhere. Was the flop reraise correct and should I continue to jam the turn as well?

Ribbo

10-05-2005, 11:56 AM

Let's make sure you're perfectly aware of the situation on the flop. You have a draw to half a pot, that's all you have. However you probably do have value to raise your draw also. So long as you don't think of a nut flush as a made hand (which it isn't until the river hits) you will be fine.
Just be aware that every player with a low on that flop is freerolling you for high.

10-05-2005, 12:32 PM

Jam jam jam jam as long as you have a number of callers!!!

The beauty of a nut flush is that it is NEVER quartered. Let the rest of these players pay you to get their 1/4 or 1/6 of this pot (or even less if a lower flush is in this far already).

If the board pairs, so be it, it is limit and you can only lose one more bet. But you have a lot more outs for a clean river than a set or two pair does to pair the board -- so if you slow up fearing a boat hitting, you are just burning money.

That's how I play it, at least.

chaos

10-05-2005, 12:36 PM

I disagree. A nut flush is a made hand. It may not be the nuts at the river but it is a made hand. It is also the nut high on the flop and the turn.

My goal would be to get the maximum amount in the pot on this betting round. I would probably just bet out and reraise if given the opportunity and it is still multiway action. You are the favorite to win the high on the river. Charge those drawing to beat you the maximum.

Every player with a made low is not freerolling you. Many may have no pair or one pair. There is no river card that can improve those hands to beat a flush.

Buzz

10-05-2005, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If the board pairs, so be it, it is limit and you can only lose one more bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kid - Well written! My feelings exactly!

I ran a simulation where I gave Hero
K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, made the board
A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, and gave one of five opponents a very nice fit with this board,
A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Without specifying cards for the other four players, Wilson's simulator deals them random cards, and also deals the fifth card to the board at random. It does this an amazing 10000 times in a couple of minutes.

The AA34d hand fared the best, followed by Hero's hand, 4JKKs. Here are the results:

.........high...low...scoop...total
Hand 1.....8....202.....7......217
Hand 2.....9....213.....4......226
Hand 3....14....202.....3......219
Hand 4.....8....208.....2......218
AA34d....222...3205..1925.....5352
4JKKs...3768......0.....0.....3768

If you divide each number in the total column by 10000, you get the equivalent of what twodimes.net reports as "E.V."

Hero's fair share of wins would be 1667, but Hero does substantially better than that, even with the perfect anti-flush hand lined up against him. _(Actually there's no guarantee anyone would be holding a set, and Hero's hand figures to win roughly 20% if the board pairs. The 20% is off the top of my head, but I think it's reasonably close to what I previously figured for nut flushes on the turn when the board pairs on the river). And there's no guarantee anybody in a real game would make low. So I think the deck is, if anything, stacked against Hero in the simulation.

Even so, Hero's flush stands up to win about 75% of the time, 7536/10000. (The 3768 total given for Hero's hand is half of that). That 20% quoted above is for when the board does pair on the river. Mostly it won't, and that's especially true if Hero's opponents are all drawing for the board to pair and thus hold each other's outs.

Bottom line: I think Hero should want to jamb here. Hero's not the favorite against the perfect Villain hand, and one-on-one in a pot limit game would not be in good shape because he's only playing for half the pot and if the board pairs he's probably going to be facing a pot sized bet on the river.

But in a limit game there's no pot sized bet on the river. There's just the one big bet to call.

Thus you can bet these nut-flush-on-the-turn hands with confidence in a limit game against a bunch of opponents - even for just half the pot - and you'll get payed off twice, after the turn and again on the river (by opponents holding low hands, non-nut flushes, maybe top sets, and maybe even less).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

Alchemist

10-05-2005, 06:20 PM

Slight correction to the hand since I was originally doing it from memory. There were *nine* limpers to the flop.

Basically the way I saw it was I wanted to drive out anyone drawing to a full house if possible. Especially with this many people, if the board pairs, I lose. If not, I'm good.

Now a lot of these people had fairly short stacks so getting them to fold even a marginal draw was likely impossible. Therefore, if I have no control over my opponents here (pot odds? huh?) I may as well pump the pot. Although I think this is a case of schooling where there are so many limpers, even folks with 2 pair have odds to try to catch a boat (I haven't done the calculations however).

PokerStars 1/2 Omaha/8 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (9 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (9 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (17 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls $1.25 (All-In), MP3 calls, CO calls.

River: (22.62 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, Hero folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls $0.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: 29.87 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Th 8d 3h 4d (Low: 6, 4, 3, 2, A | High: flush, ace high).
UTG has 6c 3c Td As (Low: 7, 6, 3, 2, A | High: two pair, aces and sixes).
MP1 has 8c 5h 4h Qc (Low: 6, 5, 4, 2, A | High: flush, ace high).
MP3 has 3d 9d 5s 6d (Low: 6, 5, 3, 2, A | High: two pair, sixes and twos).
CO has 3s 5c 7h 7c (Low: 6, 5, 3, 2, A | High: full house, sevens full of twos).
Outcome: CO wins 14.93 BB. BB wins 14.93 BB. 

And of course everyone leaves after this hand.

Buzz

10-06-2005, 07:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Although I think this is a case of schooling where there are so many limpers, even folks with 2 pair have odds to try to catch a boat

[/ QUOTE ]

Alchemist - I think it's the opposite effect of schooling because if more of them are drawing for the board to pair, then they must be holding each other's outs and thus actually would reduce each other's odds of making a full house or quads.

Buzz

benwood

10-06-2005, 09:23 PM

Your hand is better now than it was on the flop because 1.The pot has gotten so big that people will call with bad hands for "the size of the pot", & more importantly, they have only 1 card left to draw out on you, giving you a much better chance to win your 1/2.