A6o vs 2+2er

[wheelz]

villain posts in hush, i don't have any stats on him but that should be all you need to know.

he may or may not know me.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

[nervous]

Fold River?

[Lmn55d]

hmm, I'm gonna say fold the river. When he checkraises the flop lets say his range is a straight draw, flush draw or pair+. His check on the turn could mean a few things. He could be on a flush draw and not want to be raised. He could have a pair of 6s and be check/folding. He could have a pair of Ts or Qs and not want to be semibluffed and is trying to induce a bluff. Or he could be going for a checkraise.

When you call the river, it seems that you are hoping he was on a flush draw, right? I cant see him betting a pair of 6s there. The thing is I think a flush draw follows through on that turn a lot and might not bluff the river. I don't think you're good 1 in 6.25, but I'm not positive.

[w_alloy]

I like it. I think that the flop c/r and turn check is often times a draw that wants to make sure no more then 1 bet goes in on the turn, and also is hoping it can get a free card from someone fearing a turn c/r.

I think he has a hand like 89 or clubs often enough to call the river, but not often enough to bet the turn.

[Lmn55d]

I'm not sure a solid player would checkraise this flop with 89 too often. At least I wouldn't.

EDIT: I just saw 89 is double gutted. I change my mind about a checkraise being unlikely.

[wheelz]

is this an easy fold or close call or..?

what do you think hock /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[stigmata]

I think you can fold the river, there are so few hands you actually beat here. Straight draws either made it or paired. Even most of the flush draw hands will also be paired -- you have the ace.

[wheelz]

why would he check the turn though? if he had J9 and got there he's not checking the turn. if he had KJ and paired the K he's not checking the turn. 89 didn't get there. AJ 3-bets preflop. i do have the ace of clubs, but what hands checkraise the flop then check the turn? would he really do that with a queen? a 10 maybe. the only possible flush draw he could've paired is the king high flush draw, and again, he's not checking the turn when he hits the king.

[krishanleong]

I call. I don't even think about it that much. Probably because you have a pair.

Krishan - 102

[stigmata]

I'm thinking it's either FPS (fluffed CR) with a made hand, or he got scared of the King with his pair of Queens or Tens and has gone into call down mode.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
I call. I don't even think about it that much. Probably because you have a pair.

Krishan - 102

[/ QUOTE ]

thank you.

You call because you think villain was checkraising a lone ace or club draw? I dont really like it--I think a lot of villains will make a continuation bet on the turn when they're taking this line. This smells a lot more like a pocket pair, middle pair, or weak queen. I dont think you're good on the river very often against a decent player.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking it's either FPS (fluffed CR) with a made hand, or he got scared of the King with his pair of Queens or Tens and has gone into call down mode.

[/ QUOTE ]

think he has a scared pair of queens or tens 81% of the time?

I'm I nuts to consider betting the turn and folding to a raise? He can still fear a king if he has a ten or queen and is likely to give you a free showdown if he does call the turn. Maybe he has nothing and is giving up on the hand once you call his flop raise.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm I nuts to consider betting the turn and folding to a raise? He can still fear a king if he has a ten or queen and is likely to give you a free showdown if he does call the turn. Maybe he has nothing and is giving up on the hand once you call his flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not terrible but you forgo the chance to river trips or two pair.

Krishan - 109

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm I nuts to consider betting the turn and folding to a raise? He can still fear a king if he has a ten or queen and is likely to give you a free showdown if he does call the turn. Maybe he has nothing and is giving up on the hand once you call his flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not terrible but you forgo the chance to river trips or two pair.

Krishan - 109

[/ QUOTE ]

i also have a gutshot straight draw.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm I nuts to consider betting the turn and folding to a raise? He can still fear a king if he has a ten or queen and is likely to give you a free showdown if he does call the turn. Maybe he has nothing and is giving up on the hand once you call his flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not terrible but you forgo the chance to river trips or two pair.

Krishan - 109

[/ QUOTE ]

i also have a gutshot straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

That too.

Krishan - 110

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking it's either FPS (fluffed CR) with a made hand, or he got scared of the King with his pair of Queens or Tens and has gone into call down mode.

[/ QUOTE ]

think he has a scared pair of queens or tens 81% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

too late to edit... but i see what you're saying now. using the word "fluff" confused me /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm I nuts to consider betting the turn and folding to a raise? He can still fear a king if he has a ten or queen and is likely to give you a free showdown if he does call the turn. Maybe he has nothing and is giving up on the hand once you call his flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not terrible but you forgo the chance to river trips or two pair.

Krishan - 109

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if he raises, which doesn't happen as often as you'd think in this spot. If he calls, you get to make those hands with river position and check when he has you beat on a turn call. Say you have a ten or a queen in villain's spot. Do you like getting bet into OOP on the turn? Hell, you might even fold tens.

Wheelz has position in this hand and needs to use it.

[wheelz]

well if he checkraised the turn i'd be getting 7.25:1. can i really fold to a raise?

[ QUOTE ]
well if he checkraised the turn i'd be getting 7.25:1. can i really fold to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, because several of your outs are tainted. Best scenario for you is him having two pair. Then you have all of your 9 outs. Other than that you are almost always in bad shape for a turn raise.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

Wheelz has position in this hand and needs to use it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villian has QT I'd rather have the free card. Villian is getting frisky or has nothing (or close to nothing). A free card is a good thing.

Krishan - 111

[Wynton]

Recently, it seems that I've been running into a lot of people who take the same line as the villain, and end up either having been on a draw on the flop - in which case they stay till the river - or just taking a stab at the pot - in which case they fold quickly on the turn.

Do we assume that the villain will showdown with any pair? If so, then perhaps the free card is best.

[daryn]

i would call this on the river without much thought. i can see a lot of non-pair hands that would play as he did. why wouldn't he bet the turn? seems like he didn't want to get raised. if he had a straight draw i doubt he hit the king. looks like an 8 or 9 high bluff.

This looks just like a hand I played last night -- was I the Villain?

If it was me, I had a Q. If it wasn't me, it looks like villain has a Q. The play on the turn for a player with a Q is interesting (and, not that I'm objective, quite good, I think). The K is a scare card for Villain in lots of ways. Betting is leading with the chin. But if it DIDN'T hit hero, then there's little point for villain to bet -- it would just get hero to fold in a hand where hero probably was drawing very thin.

[wheelz]

yep you were the villain. i was a bit surprised at first to see you had checked the turn (he had Q9) but yeah, like you said, it does make sense. look what happened...

Right. I should have added to my earlier post that an additional benefit to the turn check is that it confuses the hell out of the opponent and will get him to call the river with a weak hand.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Right. I should have added to my earlier post that an additional benefit to the turn check is that it confuses the hell out of the opponent and will get him to call the river with a weak hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You also are giving a naked ace a lot of free outs which will then fold the river. That said, I have to think more about it to figure out if it's a good or bad play.

Krishan - 112

[wheelz]

however, with TQK on the board, you can't be so sure that i'm drawing very thin if i am behind.

[Wynton]

I don't like villain checking the turn. Not only does that give free cards, it's possible hero will call the turn and river with a worse hand.

[ QUOTE ]
however, with TQK on the board, you can't be so sure that i'm drawing very thin if i am behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's right. The truth of the matter (whether Hock_ wants to admit it or not) is that the king scared him.

What worse hand? JJ maybe. That's about it.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
What worse hand? JJ maybe. That's about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding out a naked ace is worth .6 BBs. He has 7 outs against you which is about 15% equity. Folding out A6 is worth .8.

Krishan

Of course it scared me. Fear is a valuable survival instict.

But I'm guessing wheelz has pretty solid stats and he raised preflop, so that narrows his holdings. The only hand that he's likely to have and that isn't drawing thin and that I'm ahead of on the turn is JJ. Maybe JTs. Since I'm calling with 2nd pair and (the ass end) of a gutshot anyway, I wanted to see the river for no more than one bet. The check could also induce a bluff on the turn and/or a call on the river from a weaker hand.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, because several of your outs are tainted. Best scenario for you is him having two pair. Then you have all of your 9 outs. Other than that you are almost always in bad shape for a turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously my jack outs are good, in order to call a turn cr i don't need the ace outs to be good, just the 6's. so as long as he doesn't have 66 or J9, i'd have to call if he cr'd me on the turn. i'm not going to go through hand combos but i think i'd have to call the raise.

having said that, no i don't think i should bet the turn.

I'm sure your math is correct (though I'd be interested to see the calculations), but a turn bet probably isn't folding an A because of the gutshot (or at least you need to discount the value of the play by the likelihood that it does fold it).

Then compare that to the negative EV of a bet when I'm behind. And add the potential positive effects of inducing a bluff or call on the river.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
a turn bet probably isn't folding an A because of the gutshot

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a good reason to bet. It's very complicated for the reasons you specified.

I got the numbers from pokerstove. I just stoved your hands and then A2 to get the equity of a naked ace.

Krishan

[Subfallen]

I would bet the turn intending for that bet to be the last of mine going into the pot. The reason is that he will have a club draw/straight draw/A-high hand quite a bit, and NONE of those hands will river-bluff on a board this Broadway without having you beat.

The way you played, again I don't think a good opponent is bluffing on a board that should hit a PFR so hard. River looks like a fold to me.

Edit - Hock_ played this hand perfectly IMO...the turn check is beautiful because he will induce more than his fair share of auto-bluffs and also balances the Shania of his turn play after c/raising a draw.

[tor]

I like your line. The check-raise, check, looks like a free card play on the FD, w/ a bluff at the end. Anything else just looks too fancy to me. Then again, these stakes are way above my head, as I'm a micro player.

[stigmata]

I'm still not convinced that calling is the right move. What legitimate hands could he call with preflop and check-raise the flop with, that we beat at showdown?

89s (with the double gs), J8c, J7c, 67c. Anything else I'm missing? Pretty much anything else is edging into complete bluff territory.

Villain is also going to know that this flop would have hit hero's hand a large portion of the time, and that it is not a good flop to take a stab at. Even being generous, he can't be on a complete bluff much more than 5% or 10% of the time. Or is this where I am wrong?

In contrast, there is a massive number of hands that beat us. Perhpas someone can show me the numbers to prove otherwise, but I'm just not convinced that villians hand range is wide enough for the odds being offered.

[wheelz]

hands he might play like this: 66, QK, QT, KT, Q6s, J9, QJ, Q9, Q8s, Q7s, AT, JT, T9, T8, 89, flush draw

hands that beat me: (66 = 1 combo + KQ = 6 combos + QT = 6 combos + KT = 9 combos + Q6s = 1 combo + J9 = 16 combos + QJ = 8 combos + Q9 = 8 combos + Q7s = 2 combos + AT = 9 combos + JT = 12 combos + T9 = 12 combos + T8 = 12 combos) = 102 combos

hands i beat: (89 = 16 combos + flush draw (45c, 57c, 78c, J8c, J7c, 57c) = 6 combos) = 22 combos

102:22 = 4.63:1

i think the math is right... does the range look about right? it looks like a call.