$215: Bubble hand

[Apathy]

Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: blaydzfsteel ( $1240 )
Seat 7: albundy888 ( $1055 )
Seat 8: fuosb ( $5755 )
Seat 9: Senior_Smoke ( $1950 )
Trny:16334872 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to blaydzfsteel [ 5h 5d ]

albundy888 is all-In [1055]
fuosb calls [1055].
Senior_Smoke folds.
blaydzfsteel ???

Note that if I call the push I will have 190 chips left, meaning I cover the short stack.

READS: The shorty could have almost anything here maybe top 60% of hands.

Him and the big stack have had an insane bubble dynamic where they keep playing big pots with very marginal hands so the bigstacks range is quite big here as well.

[bluefeet]

FWIW...I call. If you don't and UTG holds, your chance of pushing anything better, or even HU for that matter, are slim. I'd lend a hand here to big stack, for my own good /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ace_in_the_hole]

Yeah i think u call, when you win you get a nice pot.

[caretaker1]

I have to believe this a fold here. I know hero's stack will only be 3XBB after the fold, but why would you want to get involved with a low pair when the pusher is 50/50 to get knocked out here (or better if the big stack has any respect for the gap). If one of them has an overpair your walloped.

$.02

[johnnybeef]

Come on dude, this is day one stuff. Any time two people are all in on the bubble and you are an observer, your equity sky rockets. Easy fold.

[Shillx]

I would fold. If everyone has the same chance of winning, you lose about 0.8% by calling here.

If you win 35% of the time here (and the others win 32.5% each), it is a 0.3% mistake. This is about what you can expect going up against people who will play 60% of their hands. Obviously what tilts this more toward a fold is that the big stack will probably have better cards on average.

So if the big stack will win 40% of the time and both you and the smaller stack will win 30% (but it will be 60/40 HU in favor of the big stack if you fold), it is a 1.8% mistake to call here.

Brad

[inyaface]

I think it's a fold...but more importantly what should a calling range be here?

[caretaker1]

A similar question arose in a recent thread and consensus seemed to be KK or AA only.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a fold...but more importantly what should a calling range be here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably 88+/ATo+/A9s+/KQs depending on what we think the ranges are (maybe some more hands as well). For a 45% push and 30% call this seems about right (~ nil to + 0.6% EV call for the lower end)

Brad

[ QUOTE ]
A similar question arose in a recent thread and consensus seemed to be KK or AA only.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you're saying QQ is a fold here?!

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
A similar question arose in a recent thread and consensus seemed to be KK or AA only.

[/ QUOTE ]

you mean the "nonsensus"...


not that this is call...I would need a lil bit better, even with the reads/background.

[Ogre]

i fold here

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
A similar question arose in a recent thread and consensus seemed to be KK or AA only.

[/ QUOTE ]

note that I have the shorty covered so if we both lose I get third.


Sigh, why do I even post hands anymore.

[caretaker1]

I'm not saying that AA or KK is my opinion. I'm saying that seemed to be what other players were saying. Although, the fact that you have the other stack covered, as mentioned, may change that.

[Bonafone]

I call here, but probably fold if I have a few more chips (around 1500-1600 total or more)

[bugstud]

at 150/300 I think calling may be best.

haven't read anythign yet... but even with both of them pushing nearly any 2...i think you have a clear fold. 55 against 2 random hands is very weak, as they either have an overpair or 4 cards above you needing to pair to beat you.. Lay down the 55.

[Exitonly]

First time on the single table board... but this feels like a call to me, i think your equity is 25ish and when you call you hvaea 70% chance of 3rd or better (and when better, you're a contender for 1st) when you fold you're 60% for 3rd or better (and you're not looking pretty when shorty doubles)
.


Call.

[flyingmoose]

Seems like a call to me.

You only have to beat the shortstack to get at least third(which is all you can hope for if you fold anyway), and if you manage to beat them both you're a title contender. With the reads you gave, I'd say this is a call. With no reads, I'd lean toward fold.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
haven't read anythign yet... but even with both of them pushing nearly any 2...i think you have a clear fold. 55 against 2 random hands is very weak, as they either have an overpair or 4 cards above you needing to pair to beat you.. Lay down the 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

so we come out of the blinds with 800 and feel how good about our chances?

[Exitonly]

alright i'm bored and decided to do some math for this...

Call

Based on:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.5890 % 25.62% 00.97% { 22+, A5s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, A9o+ }
Hand 2: 45.4925 % 44.68% 00.81% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 27.9185 % 27.63% 00.29% { 55 }</pre><hr />

26% of the time you'll go out in 4th = $0 = 0
46% of the time you'll go out in 3rd = $400= 180
28% of the time you'll have 3685
which w/ ICM = $693= 194


calling = $374
---

Fold

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.4385 % 38.35% 02.09% { 22+, A5s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, A9o+ }
Hand 2: 59.5615 % 57.48% 02.09% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ } </pre><hr />

60% of the time you'll be in 3rd w/ 940
which w/ ICM = $506 = 303

40% of the time you'll be in 4th w/ 940
which w/ ICM = $259 = 103

folding = $406

-----


So Folding is $32 more profitable? That's not what i wanted to see, so that makes me want to say i made a mistake.. maybe my ranges were off. Or maybe i screwed up, or maybe folding just is better.


Any thoughts?


edit: Just realized ICM is assuming skill is equal right? So since you should be able to operate better w/ a larger stack, that should boost calling some... maybe not though, like i said earlier, noob in this forum.

[pooh74]

I said "fold" originally but thought it was close. The thing with your math is that the ranges might even be wider for BOTH hands (according to OP). When you throw in those Ax, Kx, Qx, where x is 5 or less, the numbers will swing a great deal. I still think its a fold, but with the reads and the blinds etc... it is very close. Good post.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: Just realized ICM is assuming skill is equal right? So since you should be able to operate better w/ a larger stack, that should boost calling some... maybe not though, like i said earlier, noob in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Skill is negated at this point. IMO, it is NO reason at this stage of the SNG to pass up a +$EV opportnity. (note i said "cash" ev)

[Apathy]

very nice post Exit but your ranges are pretty off.


In fact the NEITHER of the actual hands the held in this instance is in EITHER of those ranges.

[Exitonly]

whoops, i guess i give guy stoo much credit, well it wouldn't take much to swing that to a call being right, what ranges would you put the two guys on?

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
whoops, i guess i give guy stoo much credit, well it wouldn't take much to swing that to a call being right, what ranges would you put the two guys on?

[/ QUOTE ]
First guy I'd say any A,K and Q, any connector above 45 and any two gapper or three gapper above 58 or so.

Second guy something like any ace any pair K9+ high suited connectors like 89+ and any two face cards.

I call, and I think its correct

[raptor517]

apathy, i really cant believe this thread didnt get more attention. i completely missed it, but i got bored and started browsing through the 0395809235923 posts i missed. cmon man, i know u called this. you had to call this. you both lose to the big stack u still get third. you fold big stack might win great, you woulda got third anyway. you fold the pusher wins you are half stacked to everyone else. oops. yea, this ones a call, and whoever said its not sucks at life. (beef) holla

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
apathy, i really cant believe this thread didnt get more attention. i completely missed it, but i got bored and started browsing through the 0395809235923 posts i missed. cmon man, i know u called this. you had to call this. you both lose to the big stack u still get third. you fold big stack might win great, you woulda got third anyway. you fold the pusher wins you are half stacked to everyone else. oops. yea, this ones a call, and whoever said its not sucks at life. (beef) holla

[/ QUOTE ]

What if OP has t1000 and is short... does this become a fold?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
apathy, i really cant believe this thread didnt get more attention. i completely missed it, but i got bored and started browsing through the 0395809235923 posts i missed. cmon man, i know u called this. you had to call this. you both lose to the big stack u still get third. you fold big stack might win great, you woulda got third anyway. you fold the pusher wins you are half stacked to everyone else. oops. yea, this ones a call, and whoever said its not sucks at life. (beef) holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt see it as THAT clear cut. But, your post made me look at this hand again and I just realized, and am embarrassed to admit, that OP was BB posting 300. I think that makes this a call too. (I would stand by "fold" if OP was not BB, but that is a moot point given he was not)

But raptor, I still have no idea how you knew I sucked at life. I mean, poker is one thing.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
But raptor, I still have no idea how you knew I sucked at life. I mean, poker is one thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was referring to beefy, but as for you.. i looked into your soul. holla

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Come on dude, this is day one stuff. Any time two people are all in on the bubble and you are an observer, your equity sky rockets. Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's a ridiculous oversimplification. if you fold here and the short stack wins, you have 800 after posting SB 150, with no one close to you. you're not going to cash very often anyway, so you may as well help your odds of busting shorty now and have the chance to win a huge pot.

[Daliman]

Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

He either has positive equity or he doesnt.

Edit: I mean we have to measure it NOW, so the "chance" thing is kinda irrelevant. But I get your drift. Its close. I have folded this before in a game, but I am not sure if I was right or not.

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love how even the "simplest" of hands get so many different responses, especially from veterans of the game. What's more, both sides argue that the play is easy or obvious.

FWIW I call here because there's no guarantee that the bigstack will win. And even if bigstack wins against both of us, I get third. If I win, I have a good shot for 1st.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love how even the "simplest" of hands get so many different responses, especially from veterans of the game. What's more, both sides argue that the play is easy or obvious.

FWIW I call here because there's no guarantee that the bigstack will win. And even if bigstack wins against both of us, I get third. If I win, I have a good shot for 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am the John Kerry of this thread...I am proud of that actually. Its good to change your mind...don't fear it.

[Gramps]

Even a -cev call could be +$EV in a spot like this where shorty has to win a 3-way pot to not get knocked out in 4th. If shorty and big stack (given how things have played out to this point) could have wide ranges here, I'd jump in with my 55 as well - probably just push since big stack isn't folding for a little more.

It'd be an eaiser call/push if the 2nd place stack had something like 3,000 chips plus. But as things are, if you fold and the other shorty wins, you're down to 940 with 150 in the SB next hand, with the next shortest stack around 2k. You're not risking a whole lot the times you jump in and the other shorty still wins the 3-way pot. Given your given hand ranges, you end up with 3rd place at worst at least 70% of the time (and around 1/3 of the time, you have &gt; 3,000 chips and a good chip edge on 2nd place). You may get a few more 4ths by calling with your 55, but ~ 1/3 of the time your equity gets a nice boost (that probably more than makes up for your increase in 4ths).

Of the times you fold, sounds like shorty gets knocked out around 60% of the time, and of the 40% he doesn't, you're up somewhat up shat creek (but still have enough chips to make a comeback, etc.). It's probably close either way (I'm too lazy to do math on a Friday), but calling (pushing) isn't a bad play.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Come on dude, this is day one stuff. Any time two people are all in on the bubble and you are an observer, your equity sky rockets. Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your equity can go down just as easily as up on the bubble when two people are all in. In this case, you lose a lot of equity if short stack doubles up.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
haven't read anythign yet... but even with both of them pushing nearly any 2...i think you have a clear fold. 55 against 2 random hands is very weak, as they either have an overpair or 4 cards above you needing to pair to beat you.. Lay down the 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

55 is 40% to win against 2 random hands and 70% not to come in last. Doesn't sound very weak to me.

[microbet]

I think your ranges are a bit too tight.

[Scuba Chuck]

This really sucks. Your read is the ONLY reason why I'd consider calling.

Folding has some merit, in that, folding increases your chance at getting 3rd, but it decreases your chance at getting first.

With your read, it makes calling here very interesting. I'm certain at the table I'd fold, but maybe I should be thinking more about these.

BTW, why does the 190 left matter to you? I think you have to move allin here, if you're going to play, no reason to leave a postflop decision.

So one of three scenarios occur.
1) Boobie prize
2) You end up with 380 chips
3) You end up 3 way with 3535 chips.

I think when considering this, it's not very relevant you end up with 380 chips vs 4th place. I'd just consider pr(1&amp;2) the same. So, folding = 50/50 at third place prize ~ $200. Calling gives you ~ 66% chance at $0, and a 33% chance of (34.4% of the prize pool) or (1/3) $688 ~ $229.

Huh, the math says to call. I guess there's an argument that you could get better than third if you fold your way ITM here, so make the argument a little more even. This is close either way.

Edit: I seriously underestimated my math here.
[ QUOTE ]
So, folding = 50/50 at third place prize ~ $200. Calling gives you ~ 66% chance at $0, and a 33% chance of (34.4% of the prize pool) or (1/3) $688 ~ $229.

[/ QUOTE ]

My numbers are obviously rough, but they should be restated:
Calling gives you ~ 33% chance at $0, a 33% chance at third, and a 33% chance at $229.

Calling = $372

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
very nice post Exit but your ranges are pretty off.


In fact the NEITHER of the actual hands the held in this instance is in EITHER of those ranges.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I said your read made this hand more interesting.

And sorry, I realize now why having a few more chips matters in this hand.

FWIW, if shorty pushes, and folded to you, I think we all agree this is an easy call. Another reason why this is an interesting hand (and of course the size of the blinds).

[microbet]

At first I thought it was a fairly close call. Exit's math backed that up since I thought his hand ranges were a bit too tight. Few shorties would pass up an Ace here or maybe any King. Big stack is real big and would be looser too.

Given Apathy's reads on the players and their MUCH wider ranges, I think it is an easy call.

To the poster confused with a AA or KK only situation, make sure you take the time to understand the differences here. The differences are fundamental for playing the bubble, but they are NOT obvious to people who haven't played a lot and/or thought a lot about tournaments.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Daliman, in general I like the way you think ('cos you're so goot.) Is there something here we're all missing?

Scuba

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Raptor..... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Raptor..... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, so you are gonna listen to dali? yea that works out real well every single time eh.. holla

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Daliman, in general I like the way you think ('cos you're so goot.) Is there something here we're all missing?

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

nah were not missing anything, dalis been takin too much vike lately, so he cant think clearly. holla

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Raptor..... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, so you are gonna listen to dali? yea that works out real well every single time eh.. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

well, does dali suck at life? and if he does, will you be my friend? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Raptor..... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, so you are gonna listen to dali? yea that works out real well every single time eh.. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

well, does dali suck at life?

[/ QUOTE ]

is that not quite clear at this point? /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[Irieguy]

I didn't think there would be so much two-way discussion here, so I didn't bother. But it looks like some people would fold here, so I'll chime in.

Autocall, yawn.

Irieguy

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think there would be so much two-way discussion here, so I didn't bother. But it looks like some people would fold here, so I'll chime in.

Autocall, yawn.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

yay, backup. eat it beefcake. holla

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think there would be so much two-way discussion here, so I didn't bother. But it looks like some people would fold here, so I'll chime in.

Autocall, yawn.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, but if hero only has t1000 and is short stack is it still a call... b/c if you lose you get 4th???

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think there would be so much two-way discussion here, so I didn't bother. But it looks like some people would fold here, so I'll chime in.

Autocall, yawn.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

yay, backup. eat it beefcake. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, i say we settle in a fight. dali and beef vs. irie and raptor. no wait, that wouldnt be fair.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


ok, i say we settle in a fight. dali and beef vs. irie and raptor. no wait, that wouldnt be fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd just have Raptor let you kick him in the balls as a distraction, then I'd jump on your back and choke you out.

Dali could nibble at our ankles until you were unconscious and then we'd cover him with a cup and dump him outside like a cockroach.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think there would be so much two-way discussion here, so I didn't bother. But it looks like some people would fold here, so I'll chime in.

Autocall, yawn.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

How weak a hand are we willing to call with here?

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


ok, i say we settle in a fight. dali and beef vs. irie and raptor. no wait, that wouldnt be fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd just have Raptor let you kick him in the balls as a distraction, then I'd jump on your back and choke you out.

Dali could nibble at our ankles until you were unconscious and then we'd cover him with a cup and dump him outside like a cockroach.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

omg im about to die from lack of breath due to excessive laughter. bwhahahahahahhaha. holla

[RobGW]

I am not sure why everyone is so worried about losing a 3 way all in with 55. If AL wins the hand the tourney is pretty much over regardless of whether you call here or not. If you fold your left with no FE anyways and at the mercy of high blinds and random cards. Given his reads 55 is probably the best hand here. Granted its not going to hold up often but it will hold up often enough to make this a call. If hero wins he is back in contention to win and ITM. If hero loses but beats AL he gets 3rd which is all he can hope for anyway. AL has to beat 2 hands if hero calls. Not likely given his situation. The risk is small for losing to both opponents, the reward is big. Take it you wusses.

[Taraz]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not sure why everyone is so worried about losing a 3 way all in with 55. If AL wins the hand the tourney is pretty much over regardless of whether you call here or not. If you fold your left with no FE anyways and at the mercy of high blinds and random cards. Given his reads 55 is probably the best hand here. Granted its not going to hold up often but it will hold up often enough to make this a call. If hero wins he is back in contention to win and ITM. If hero loses but beats AL he gets 3rd which is all he can hope for anyway. AL has to beat 2 hands if hero calls. Not likely given his situation. The risk is small for losing to both opponents, the reward is big. Take it you wusses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


ok, i say we settle in a fight. dali and beef vs. irie and raptor. no wait, that wouldnt be fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd just have Raptor let you kick him in the balls as a distraction, then I'd jump on your back and choke you out.

Dali could nibble at our ankles until you were unconscious and then we'd cover him with a cup and dump him outside like a cockroach.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I say we settle this with SNG poker results for the year.

Yawn.....

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


ok, i say we settle in a fight. dali and beef vs. irie and raptor. no wait, that wouldnt be fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd just have Raptor let you kick him in the balls as a distraction, then I'd jump on your back and choke you out.

Dali could nibble at our ankles until you were unconscious and then we'd cover him with a cup and dump him outside like a cockroach.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

you think a kick in the nuts is gonna be enough to take down a redwood? nigga you better bring a muthafuckin chainsaw!!!!

ps. nh

pps. dali pwn3d you bro.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


ok, i say we settle in a fight. dali and beef vs. irie and raptor. no wait, that wouldnt be fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd just have Raptor let you kick him in the balls as a distraction, then I'd jump on your back and choke you out.

Dali could nibble at our ankles until you were unconscious and then we'd cover him with a cup and dump him outside like a cockroach.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I say we settle this with SNG poker results for the year.

Yawn.....

[/ QUOTE ]

yea i mean yer sample HAS to be almost 200 sngs dali, so clearly there cant be any other correct answer.. i mean variance says it all right? holla

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


ok, i say we settle in a fight. dali and beef vs. irie and raptor. no wait, that wouldnt be fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd just have Raptor let you kick him in the balls as a distraction, then I'd jump on your back and choke you out.

Dali could nibble at our ankles until you were unconscious and then we'd cover him with a cup and dump him outside like a cockroach.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I say we settle this with SNG poker results for the year.

Yawn.....

[/ QUOTE ]

yea i mean yer sample HAS to be almost 200 sngs dali, so clearly there cant be any other correct answer.. i mean variance says it all right? holla

[/ QUOTE ]

What do YOU play?
What do I play?

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

Holler

[curtains]

Im on dialup, so I cant see all the responses. In any case Id call here.