QTd in BB

[ckmo]

Button is 15/5
CO is 43/0

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero ???

what do you guys think?

[Redd]

I'd cap it. Nobody gets credit for a better flush yet, especially since the turn also completes an OESD.

[milesdyson]

call and check call the river.

there aren't any flush hands that button can have here that we beat. he most likely wouldn't limp J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9:diamond or worse being 15% vpip, and you have the Q and T. the possible flush hands he has now are A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (he'd raise the AKs).

hope he has a set.

at first i wanted to call here, see if CO caps and if so check call the river. if CO didn't cap i would bet the river to trap him between, but looking at your hole cards, we're not looking too hot here.

[tyler_cracker]

Does everyone like leading the flop? I realize we have an equity edge and want to build a pot, but it would suck if MP2 raised, and would it be so bad to try and hit our flush for free? I also don't think we're taking this down right now on a coordinated board against 3 limpers.

I cap the turn.

[Redd]

But there's 6 combos of 77, and 3x3 of each of the set possibilities for a total of 15 hands we beat versus the two flush combos that we lose to. We'd need to discount the losing combinations very heavily (like by 90%) to be behind his average range, would we not?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
But there's 6 combos of 77, and 3x3 of each of the set possibilities for a total of 15 hands we beat versus the two flush combos that we lose to. We'd need to discount the losing combinations very heavily (like by 90%) to be behind his average range, would we not?

[/ QUOTE ]
we really don't have a read on how he plays postflop, but the average tight passive 15/5 guy is going to have a very hard time 3-betting the turn with any set on this turn. that leaves the 6 combos of 77. do i think he 3-bets them here? not very often. by capping we also run the risk of folding the other dude.

[TennesseeKid]

Grunch:

Pre-flop: bet
Flop: good
Turn: call 3-bet

Cap and cap the river if the board doesnt pair up

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Cap and cap the river if the board doesnt pair up

[/ QUOTE ]
wow.

[Hojglad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cap and cap the river if the board doesnt pair up

[/ QUOTE ]
wow.

[/ QUOTE ]
Here at 2+2, we like to cap every street even when we've made a second best hand. We don't like to look weak tight in the eyes of our peers.

To ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S: Capping this turn and river is probably a significant mistake. What range of hands do you put the button on that you are ahead of? It's pretty obvious he's in love with his hand.

My weak tight perspective: I call the three bet and fold the river if it looks like the river is going to be capped. I don't mind showing this hand down for one more bet on the river, but I'm reluctant to put any more than that in. 15/5s don't limp with Jxs from the button, nor do they 3 bet a J high flush facing obvious aggression on the turn.

Villians are representing Ad and the other Kd. I'd call the turn. If it gets capped I'm gone...

* grunch *

Hero caps. You are probably ahead and getting 1:4.4 pot odds for you bet. There are a lot of hand possibilites out that could account for the betting including any 7 and the lone A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. The Button could have you beat beat with two /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs headed by the Ace or the King but probably not. The CO also could have the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif with just about anything else (with a V$IP of 43% he probably plays Ace-rag a lot) or 87, 67 with a small diamond even. If a diamond hits the river you are in big trouble of course but with all of the interest shown here there are likely other diamonds out so IF no one has Ax/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Kx/images/graemlins/diamond.gif you are golden.

I dont bet that flop. I call down on the turn given how you played it.

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]
by capping we also run the risk of folding the other dude.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the best reason for not capping the turn right here. If we raise and we're ahead we only capture 1 bet here by raising if CO folds, and maybe 1 or two more on the river. And if we're behind we lose more bets.

If we don't raise and CO calls(if we're ahead), we gain 1 bet here on the turn and potentially 2-4 more bets on the river if CO decides to call. We lose the same amount(unless we listen to Eskimo and cap the river /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

If CO stays around wouldn't it be +EV to bet this river for value and call a raise?

[Hojglad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
by capping we also run the risk of folding the other dude.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the best reason for not capping the turn right here. If we raise and we're ahead we only capture 1 bet here by raising if CO folds, and maybe 1 or two more on the river. And if we're behind we lose more bets.

If we don't raise and CO calls(if we're ahead), we gain 1 bet here on the turn and potentially 2-4 more bets on the river if CO decides to call. We lose the same amount(unless we listen to Eskimo and cap the river /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm sort of confused as to what all of this ends up meaning. What's your plan for the river if:
1) CO caps after we call the 3-bet by button on the turn
2) CO folds after we call the 3-bet by button on the turn
3) CO calls after we call the 3-bet by button on the turn

Assume a non-diamond river in all three cases. I am fairly convinced that a check-call is correct in all scenarios. I don't think we wlll have good enough pot odds to show our hand down if we face more than two bets after we check in scenario 1). I don't think we want to blow the CO out of the pot with a river bet or a CR in scenario 3, and I'm not convinced we are ahead here enough to bet the river heads up against the button in scenario 2.

[lautzutao]

I would need to c/c this hand down if it's capped on the turn. I'm not good enough to lay down a Q-high flush, unless the board paired on the river or a diamond hits.

As far as the turn, I was trying to say if we are ahead we want an overcall. Capping the turn makes it 2 to the CO and he possibly doesn't call(unless he's got us beat)

*EDIT everytime I post yours has more and more info TEHMATT /images/graemlins/grin.gif

If it's heads up on the river yeah you c/c. But if we have CO and Button with us why not bet it out? Isn't the overcall going to pad our pot and make up for the times we lose here to a higher flush?

[Hojglad]

[ QUOTE ]
I would need to c/c this hand down if it's capped on the turn. I'm not good enough to lay down a Q-high flush, unless the board paired on the river or a diamond hits.

As far as the turn, I was trying to say if we are ahead we want an overcall. Capping the turn makes it 2 to the CO and he possibly doesn't call(unless he's got us beat)

[/ QUOTE ]
Right. You have to realize, though, that if we aren't the ones capping this on the turn, the river is going to be very, very ugly. If we check, multiple bets are going to go in. Are you really calling a raise on the river after you check with the possibility of having to pay 4 big bets to see showdown here? I don't think this is a matter of being "too good of a player to fold the third nuts." I think it's just a matter of common sense. If more than one bet goes in on the river, we are almost never good.

This hand sort of reminds me of a hand I played a long time ago. I had the stone cold nuts on the turn - the A high flush. However, I was up against a very, very tight opponent who almost never raised preflop or got aggressive at all (and a normally passive donkey).

The pot was five-handed. Normally super-tightie threw in a raise preflop. I called from the BB with Axs. 5 to the flop. The flop came K63 with two of my suit. I bet the flop (2 of my suit fell), called in two places and then the normally passive donkey raised, tightie three bet (oh [censored]), I capped, and then everyone called. The turn was the blank of nut flush. I check-raised them both. They called. The other guys folded. The river was another 6. I checked to see what would happen. Normally passive bet, tightie raised, and I mucked my hand. Sure enough, they proceeded to cap the river - normally passive shows K6o and tightie shows KK for the nuts. This is an example of a fold I usually never make, but through player reads and hand reading, seemed routine at the time.

The hero's Q high flush here is my nut flush there, I think.