Mundane but practical problem - 72s

[StellarWind]

Party 5/10 6-max (4-handed)

Hero is BB with 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Preflop: Button (43/4, fairly passive but not too loose postflop) calls, Hero checks.

Flop (2.4 SB): K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn (1.2 BB) 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls

River (3 BB) 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks intending to call, ...

[Lmn55d]

if he's not too loose postflop bet the flop.

[wheelz]

pretty easy flop bet i think.

[ddubois]

I have no evidence that it is correct, but I probably would lead the turn. I'd rather he fold a 6 outter than depend on him to bluff a worse hand. This seems especially true given that you say he is passive (which I take to mean will bluff less than most), and fairly-tight (increasing our fold equity) postflop.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's not too loose postflop bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this an autobet situation for you guys? If not, what hands are you not betting?

[Lmn55d]

i'd autobet that flop against someone who can actually fold.

[oreogod]

Im either betting the flop (if he can fold) or at least the turn. But Im sure u have your reasons for the line u took and would be intrested in hearing them.

[wheelz]

it's more to do with the board than my hand. there's a good chance you take the pot down on this flop.

[Wynton]

I don't autobet the flop, but I pretty much autobet the turn.

[goofball]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd autobet that flop against someone who can actually fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah. K high rainbow flops are money for players in the blind against LP limpers.

rest of the hand is fine.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Im either betting the flop (if he can fold) or at least the turn. But Im sure u have your reasons for the line u took and would be intrested in hearing them.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't bluff at these every time so I look for some trace of something useful. For example I would be happier with 92 because then I'd have an overcard to the eight and sometimes that's enough to swing a 5 BB pot on the river.

But I definitely agree that this flop enormously favors whoever bets first and usually I want that to be me. Perhaps the problem is that some didn't interpret "not too loose postflop" the way I meant it--he isn't really bad. He's not weak-tight by any means and I'm sure he calls stuff he shouldn't.

The other thing to consider is that checking is somewhat +EV and betting needs to do even better to be correct. Sometimes a passive player will give you a free card and then you are well placed to bluff at weakness on the turn. Or you may pair your hand in a favorable situation as happened here.

Anyway I didn't post the hand to talk about the flop as enlightening as that has been. There is a reason I checkcalled the turn and I was hoping it would be discussed. I may have the worse hand in which case betting doesn't have much to recommend itself. It's possible I could save myself a bet by betting and folding to a raise, but when you consider outs and the significant possibility of being bluff-raised (for the free showdown and because I don't represent any real hand) that saved bet looks like a very marginal deal.

The important case is when my pair is best and Villain has six outs (possibly only three outs). Now I really want him to stay in the 1 BB pot and pay me off. I hope that my pathetic second check makes this an irresistable bluffing opportunity even for a somewhat passive player. Certainly it feels like I don't get the second free card very often in this situation. His implied odds on making a pair are only 3-1 and that assumes he finds the bet on the river. I gain about 0.6 BB if he makes this mistake compared to my forcing him out. I may also gain another whole bet if he fires another barrel on the river.

Against this it only costs me about 0.3 BB if he takes the free card instead of letting me force him out. The big loss of about 0.8 BB occurs if he takes a free card when he would have called a bet. How often do these cases occur? I'm not sure. Plus sometimes he will give his profit back with interest by bluffing the river when I check a third time.

Overall I think the bait is pretty irresistable and this is a +EV play. If Button were a little more aggressive I'd feel really good about it. As it stands I'm not sure. But as several of you observed, this is a great board to bluff. If I insist on betting the turn I'm not going to get paid off by unpaired hands too often.

One observation is that Villain did not try to steal preflop. Against a normally aggressive preflop player that would strong argument for checkcalling. He isn't likely to have a big card. If he's behind he's probably worthless and I shouldn't expect him to call a value bet with an unpaired hand. Mr 4% PFR however could easily have an ace so that argument doesn't mean much this time.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
it's more to do with the board than my hand. there's a good chance you take the pot down on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can somebody explain why this is the case?

[deepsquat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's more to do with the board than my hand. there's a good chance you take the pot down on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can somebody explain why this is the case?

[/ QUOTE ]

bump on this- iw ould love to know the theory behind why we should bet here. cheers

[B Dids]

Why are we so eager to try and take down a small pot on the flop with 7 high?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we so eager to try and take down a small pot on the flop with 7 high?

[/ QUOTE ]

Small pots add up. If you don't bet with nothing from the blinds, you are leaving money on the table because some spots are unequivocably +EV.

Krishan

[cartman]

I hate bet folding on the turn after the flop has checked through, but I do it often. I have just recently started taking your approach more. You are right that tons of player will bluff the turn here, but many will check behind on the river. Overall I think I like it.

Cartman

[wonkadaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we so eager to try and take down a small pot on the flop with 7 high?

[/ QUOTE ]

the obvious answer is odds, this bet will win more than it needs to against most opponents. someone w/2 middle cards TJ, Q9 etc has a pretty hard time calling this flop bet in such a small pot. it also puts a fair mount of pressure on weak aces. and since it's the best shot ur gonna get w/ur trash hand, if u don't bet the flop, ur basically giving up the hand (assuming you don't hit). even if it's checked thru and u do hit, ur often left calling down w/a losing hand. by betting the flop the hand becomes easier to play.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
it's more to do with the board than my hand. there's a good chance you take the pot down on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am board texture impaired so excuse my ignorance, but what specifically about this flop makes it good. I speculate because:

1) there are no flush draws
2) there are no straight draws
3) He is unlikely to have an overcard since Ace is the only one and he didn't raise
4) He is unlikely to have a K or a pocket pair since he didn't raise

Are there any of these that are incorrect or any reasons that I left out?

What if the flop were T83 rainbow instead. Is that still a "good flop" to bet at?

How about 583 rainbow?

Thanks,
Cartman

[paco]

T83 and 583 flops are both much more likely to have hit limpers, and/or easier to call with overs if holding hands like QJ. With the K on board, a hand like QJ looks much less attractive.

Yes, the absence of flush draws makes them better, but its a muli-dimensional question.

We want to evaluate flop texture based on:
1. Cards in the "playing zone" (Ciaffone term)--9 and above, which are more likely to hit somebody.
2. Coordination
a. Connectedness--two pair and sd's more likely.
b. Suitedness--of course fd's.

The best flop texture to bluff at against a limper is exactly one card in the playing zone and the least amount of coordination possible. Probably the best would be somthing like K72 rainbow. I would qualify by saying that a lone A can be a blessing or problem. Against players who will play any ace this kind of flop is not as good, but if they don't have it they'll be much more likely to fold junk of course but also smaller pairs.

BTW, I like stellars line from the turn on. The point is well taken--inducing a bluff that even passives can't resist from a 6 out opponent is a spot where we can collect some pos EV where we usually mulit-table autopilot and miss out. BUT, it was us who was a six out dog on the flop. I think a flop bet on this board texture is +EV, and the bluff inducemetn should never have happened. I would be much more inclined to play as stellar had if I held something like A2 with a paired ace and uncoordinated board where he'll drop with nothing, will bluff to the second check, and where we're not worried about overcards.

[StellarWind]

The river checked through and Villain showed A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MHIG.

[deepsquat]

Any books or links to help me get a better understanding of flop texture and what boards are likely to hit limpers?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Any books or links to help me get a better understanding of flop texture and what boards are likely to hit limpers?

[/ QUOTE ]
"Middle Limit Hold'em Poker" by Ciaffone and Brier might help. Just remember that they assume a game where opponents are more tight/passive then most of us are used to.

The idea bluffing flop is probably K72r. Positive factors to look for:

1. Exactly one high card. In order of preference: K, Q, J, A. Aces are less good because so many people play them and because they often create wheel draws with otherwise desirable small cards. Otherwise the higher the better, because overcards call.

2. No supporting middle card: T, 9, or 8. These cards create playing zone straight draws with the top card and often hit limpers.

3. Rainbow.

4. Lack of coordination in the small cards. No straight draws or natural two pair combos.

It often helps to turn this around. Imagine you flopped top pair. The safer you feel about your hand, the better bluffing flop it is. People don't want to call the flop without outs against top pair. What hands have appreciable outs against K72r? Very few. What hands have outs against K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif? Plenty, that's why it's a terrible bluffing flop.

[Guruman]

-blind response-

I don't think like the river.

First off, the button made a huge mistake by limping first in, no matter what he had. A raise would have made this hand much more difficult for you had you chosen to defend.

Given that he open limped from the CO, any K, 8, or 3 would have to bet the flop last to act for protection. This is especially true of a paired 3, since every card but a 2 is scary.

If his bets are as honest as his open-limp was, I'd like to know how you think he would have reacted to a turn check/raise with a hand like 44-77? What about A2 and Q2s? What if you led into those hands on the river?

why would an open-limper without a pair bluff UI on this river?

[deepsquat]

Thanks stellarwind- thats great info.

I always thought paired boards were good bluffing boards as its unlikely it hit your opponent. A friend disagrees, is this generally true?

cheers