Two medium pairs and a OESD. [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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10-04-2005, 04:05 PM

[Hand 1]
Button is LP.
Party Poker 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (8 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO checks, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6.00 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero...

[Hand 2]
MP3 is LP.
Party Poker 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
4 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (5.00 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero...

[Hand 3]
UTG is LP.
Party Poker 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 5 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5.00 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero...

How much are these draws worth? And what should I do?

davelin

10-04-2005, 04:16 PM

Hand 1 - Fold
Hand 2 - Call down
Hand 3 - Call

tiltaholic

10-04-2005, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1 - Fold
Hand 2 - Call down
Hand 3 - Call

[/ QUOTE ]

lautzutao

10-04-2005, 04:28 PM

We afraid of a 6 here on hand 2? Seems a bit unlikely doesn't it?

*EDIT* NM, LP read

Vote4Pedro

10-04-2005, 04:28 PM

Is calling in Hand 1 that bad? Getting 7:1?

10-04-2005, 04:29 PM

Hand 1 - Fold
Why is that? I am probably behind but I have 5 outs to trips or twopair and 1.5 outs to a flush, making me a 7.2-to-1 dog in a 7-to-1 pot. If I hit my draw I should be able to pick up 2 extra BBs from him. And as I want to knock people out I think I should raise. Thoughts on this?

Hand 2 - Call down
What are we hoping to win against here? What hands would he donk the turn with that I can beat? I have virtualy no outs here, only two tens.

Hand 3 - Call
Guess thats fine...

10-04-2005, 04:34 PM

Hand 1 - fold - 3rd pair is unlikely the best hand, nor are you sure you will get odds to draw OOP

Hand 2 - any read? lots of players will slowplay trips until the turn. raise if you think you're best, call down if not

hand 3 - again - a read would be good here. With no read, UTG either has the flush or is drawing. I'd call and reassess on the next street.

10-04-2005, 04:56 PM

The reads are there, look closer... /images/graemlins/smile.gif
The villians in these 3 hands are loose passive.

10-04-2005, 05:17 PM

Hand 1 I'm definitely calling. We have slightly less than the required odds to call Button's bet on the flop, but there are 3 other players behind us, and are they all going to fold? No, they're not. Enough of them will call to give us the odds to make this call as well.

Hand 2, call down to showdown.

Hand 3, I would have open bet that flop every time. We have 4 to a flush, and an open ended straight draw. We have 17 outs to a straight, flush, or top pair! Since I accidentally clicked on "check", and UTG bet and everyone else folded, probably I might as well call. Raising doesn't do me a lot of good against just one player, and out of position, especially since the read given on him is LP and therefore my flush draw may be no good.

DCWildcat

10-04-2005, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 3, I would have open bet that flop every time. We have 4 to a flush, and an open ended straight draw. We have 17 outs to a straight, flush, or top pair! Since I accidentally clicked on "check", and UTG bet and everyone else folded, probably I might as well call. Raising doesn't do me a lot of good against just one player, and out of position, especially since the read given on him is LP and therefore my flush draw may be no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about this. Many times our t-high flush won't be good. Many times our straight/top pair will be counterfeited by a flush. 17 outs is far too generous here; I'd still check/call, and be wary of what happens if a flush call falls on the turn.

10-04-2005, 06:03 PM

1. I call and never regret it.
2. This one is tough. But I think I fold. It depends on how P the LP is.
3. I call down and fold river UI.

2+2 wannabe

10-04-2005, 06:15 PM

hand 1: call if limpers are passive (i.e. they don't checkraise)
hand 2: call down
hand 3: call

irishpint

10-04-2005, 06:42 PM

fold hand 1
call down hand 2
call hand 3

bozlax

10-04-2005, 07:03 PM

POKhER

10-04-2005, 07:05 PM

Going to rock the boat a bit with hand 2.

1, fold.
2, 3bet and fold to a cap. if he calls check the river for free Sd(yes i know were OOP). of course calling downs the other option. If he just has a 9 he wont cap and will probably call the river... if he has a 6 i reckon he may cap. Depends how passive.

3, call - Implied.

10-04-2005, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1 - Fold
Why is that? I am probably behind but I have 5 outs to trips or twopair and 1.5 outs to a flush, making me a 7.2-to-1 dog in a 7-to-1 pot. If I hit my draw I should be able to pick up 2 extra BBs from him. And as I want to knock people out I think I should raise. Thoughts on this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold as well, and it's because I think we need to discount some of our outs. I'm fine with counting both 7s, but the three Ts are more suspect. A T puts a 7-9-T on the board, so a straight becomes a possibility, if unlikely, and we have to acknowledge the possibility of running into Aces up. That, and our two pair is fairly easily counterfeited. I knock our three Ts to one and a half, so that's 3.5 outs for trips or two pair.

So I'm thinking maybe 5 outs for about an 8-1. Given that, I lean towards a fold, though a lot depends on the passivity of those yet to act. Mind you, if a blank comes, I know that I'm folding on the turn, so there's a limit to my investment.

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 - Call down
What are we hoping to win against here? What hands would he donk the turn with that I can beat? I have virtualy no outs here, only two tens.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's LP, so this isn't especially likely, but A-9, K-9, 7-7, and 8-8 are possibilites. Bear in mind that MP3 called, and then called the raise. No reason to put him on a solid hand.

benkath1

10-04-2005, 07:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
2, 3bet and fold to a cap. if he calls check the river for free Sd(yes i know were OOP). of course calling downs the other option. If he just has a 9 he wont cap and will probably call the river... if he has a 6 i reckon he may cap. Depends how passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, you rocked the boat a bit. I think this is just plain dumb. If you 3 bet and fold to a cap it costs you the same if you call and see the river and call again, IF no 10 falls. If a 10 falls, what are you behind??? 66!?! If you 3-bet and fold to a cap, you will wonder if the river was a 10 [start squints voice]foreeeevvveeerrr[/squints].

10-04-2005, 07:19 PM

Grunch

Hand 1: I count 2 outs for the 7's, 1.5 outs max for the backdoor flush draw and maybe 3 outs for the 10's. I'm thinking villian has pair of aces, pair of nines, two pair, outside he's got two overcards or trips. If he's got A7, you're down to one 7 and it's no good. If he's got two pair ,A-9 your 10's are no good either. If he's loose he might I might put him on a pair of 9. Doesn't seem pot odds are right to call especially with 4 to act behind you.

Hand 2: I'd call here and slow down. you're WA/WB

I could be absolutely dead wrong on 2 here and I admit it.

POKhER

10-04-2005, 07:21 PM

but if he has a 9... he may call.
Maximumising the profits when we're ahead. 3betting costs the same as calling down.

If he has a 6 we lose anyhow. If he has a 9 he won't cap and he will probably call a bet on the river.

AS I SAID IT DEPENDS HOW PASSIVE HE IS. We dont want to scay 64o into calling us down.

The Ten on the river? the 22:1 Ten card you mean?

benkath1

10-04-2005, 07:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The Ten on the river? the 22:1 Ten card you mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes that's the one. The same one you don't give yourself a chance to see if you 3-bet and fold. 3-betting costs the same as calling down, but you are 3-betting a 6 card poker hand. The nice thing about Texas Hold Em is you get to play with 7.

You don't have to get all bitter, I just think you are looking at this with too much aggression, and not giving yourself a chance to win.

[ QUOTE ]
If he has a 9 he won't cap and he will probably call a bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a stretch. You really think he is going to call a bet on the river if it say an A, or a K, and you're raising him the whole way? come on.

[ QUOTE ]
We dont want to scay 64o into calling us down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't even know what this means?

POKhER

10-04-2005, 07:49 PM

"I think this is plain dumb", Get off your soapbox and discuss hands maturely? Gee.

22-1outer will hardly ever come in so i don't really take that into consideration to be honest.

This is party, yes i do this a 9 will call us down. 72o would probably call us down.

Anyhow its just a suggestion, see if anyone else picks it up to discuss. Sometimes you've got to rock the boat to gain extra knowledge. Conforming to everyones "Call down" isn't a great reply.

Scarying a 64o into calling us down means this.
A player with 64o or any crappy 6 hand infact(Passive) may get scared of higher 6. I.e. A6s, he may then call us down and we would lose. What bit didn't you understand?

10-04-2005, 07:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He's LP, so this isn't especially likely, but A-9, K-9, 7-7, and 8-8 are possibilites. Bear in mind that MP3 called, and then called the raise. No reason to put him on a solid hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Like you say those holdings are not very likely. I think that 6x is by far the most likely holding. However he COULD have those other hands aswell. This is how passive player play their trips/sets, check/call the flop and bet/raise the turn and river.

benkath1

10-04-2005, 07:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"I think this is plain dumb", Get off your soapbox and discuss hands maturely? Gee.

22-1outer will hardly ever come in so i don't really take that into consideration to be honest.

This is party, yes i do this a 9 will call us down. 72o would probably call us down.

Anyhow its just a suggestion, see if anyone else picks it up to discuss. Sometimes you've got to rock the boat to gain extra knowledge. Conforming to everyones "Call down" isn't a great reply.

Scarying a 64o into calling us down means this.
A player with 64o or any crappy 6 hand infact(Passive) may get scared of higher 6. I.e. A6s, he may then call us down and we would lose. What bit didn't you understand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess we will agree to disagree. I like my line, you like yours. I am happy with my success as a poker player, and I hope you are too.

Peace and good luck.

POKhER

10-04-2005, 07:57 PM

LOL, How old are you?

10-04-2005, 08:03 PM

Thanks for the insight. But what do you mean by WA/WB? Is there any thread you know that explains this? Or is it easy stuff that can be explained in a sentence? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

10-05-2005, 02:45 PM

I think calling down is the correct way to go and heres why.

Calling the turn and checking the river will make him bet again (which is what he later did in the hand).
Math:
Lets say we have the best hand 15% of the time.
0.15*8.5+0.85*(-1)=0.425 BB
Lets say we have a 10% chance to win the hand.
0.1*8.5+0.85*(-1)=-0.05 BB
You judge which one is correct.

Lets say we 3-BET the turn. I'll assume the following probabilities:
How often does he caps? 30% (WE FOLD WHEN HE DOES THAT)
How often does he call? 65% (we win 15% of the time he calls = 9.75% all in all)
How often does he fold? 5%
Lets also assume we always get a free SD.

0.05*6.5+0.3*(-2)+0.0975*7.5+0.5525*(-2) = -0.64875 BB

All this is just assumtions but this convinces me that 3-betting is not correct. In practice the EV may be either better or worse as it is impossible to evaluate the exact possibilities of hes actions.