Flop 2 Pair ..Top Pair

[jguy3348]

Holding A3KQ...flop A39 no flush draw..The question is: I have two pair and top pair, 6 outs for a full house, no low draw, two cards to come. If implied odds are enough I play it?

[Buzz]

jguy - You didn't specify whether you're playing limit Omaha-8 or pot-limit-Omaha-8. In limit Omaha-8 your best move is clearly to check and fold.

You've flopped what is called top and bottom two pairs and when thry're aces and threes you're simply not going to have favorable implied pot odds to play them in a limit game.

There are two low cards on the flop which means low is very likely. However, since you're double counterfeited for low by the flop and have no back-up low cards, it's impossible for you to win low. Therefore you're mainly playing for only half the pot.

After this flop you only have four outs for half the pot, and two of them (the aces) are poor for you. The reason the two missing aces are poor outs for you is that aces full of treys loses to aces full of nines (or aces full of anything higher than treys).

In the next two cards, you'd really have to catch a trey, two aces, two treys, an ace plus a king, an ace plus a queen, or an off-suit jack plus a ten to have a very good hand on the river. The probability of that is 123/990, or about 12.4%.
(from 86+3+3+9+9+16-3=123)
In other words, one time out of eight you'll have a hand that probably will win half the pot and the other seven times out of eight you'll have a loser. (It isn't quite that bad because sometimes you'll scoop with no low possible, but it's still bad).

Sometimes your hand/flop will end up a winner, but overall you'll lose with it in a limit game.

I think your best move is to check and fold to a bet. If somehow everybody else also checks and if another trey appears on the turn, then you might consider betting. But as things stand, your chances are poor.

In a pot limit game, there are quite different considerations, including some that can get you into a lot of trouble against able opponents. I'd check/fold this in a pot limit game too.

Since you'll probably be playing most ace plus one or two or three wheel card hands, flopping top and bottom two pairs will happen a lot to you. It wasn't easy for me to routinely fold them - and maybe you never want to do anything routinely - but unless you also have something else going for you, this should become a standard fold for you.

Best place to fold is usually either before the flop or immediately after it, depending on your opponents, your cards, and the flop.

If you started with something like A238, and if the flop was AK8, your top and bottom pair would be aces and eights, and you'd also have the nut low draw. In that case top and bottom two pair would add enough to the value of your hand to make it generally worth while to continue, even without counterfeit low protection.

Or if you started with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the flop was
A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, then low would not be very likely and in addition to top and bottom pairs you'd have four additional outs for the four jacks plus a backdoor flush draw (worth about one out in Omaha-8). In that case, you'd have a very playable nine-out hand/flop fit.

But a pair of aces plus a wheel card pair?... Better get used to tossing it in the muck.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
In the next two cards, you'd really have to catch a trey, two aces, two treys, an ace plus a king, an ace plus a queen, or an off-suit jack plus a ten to have a very good hand on the river. The probability of that is <font color="red">123/990, or about 12.4%.
(from 86+3+3+9+9+16-3=123)</font>
In other words, one time out of eight you'll have a hand that probably will win half the pot and the other seven times out of eight you'll have a loser. (It isn't quite that bad because sometimes you'll scoop with no low possible, but it's still bad).

[/ QUOTE ]

Make that <font color="blue"> 113/990 = 11.4%
(from 86+1+1+6+6+16-3 = 113)</font>

I think that's right now.

11.4% a bit bleaker than the 12.3% I estimated the first time around. In any event, your pot equity with two pairs, aces and treys, on the flop is too low to sensibly continue in a limit game.

With apologies for my counting error.

Buzz

[jguy3348]

Buzz, thank you for taking the time to respond. Makes total sense. New to Omaha8 trying to get my brain around this game. First time posting O8 forum. Should of known to tell you limit /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Been given great advice, "read everything by Buzz" and I have. Happy to meet you /images/graemlins/grin.gif

jguy3348

[chaos]

I think to be a winner at Omaha/8 you have to get in the habit of folding on the flop with hands that you would have been happy to flop in a Hold 'em game: top and bottom pairs, bottom two pairs, bottom set, and often middle set.

[Webster]

Buzz - good post - this is a hand that I had problems when I was just starting to play. Now that I am a wize veteren of 4000 hands (LOL) the light sometimes flips on with posts like that.

Drawing hands to 1/2 the pots are something us newbies have to remember NOT to play.

Grinders curious Poker/Life Blog (http://www.grinderswarehouse.com)