(22) please tell me if this is a bad fold

[unreal_nh]

***** Hand History for Game 2823782428 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:16320809 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Tuesday, October 04, 13:05:42 EDT 2005
Table Table 13825 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 6: Texas_Tiger ( $775 )
Seat 3: HERO ( $785 )
Seat 2: Bemben18 ( $740 )
Seat 4: dreamkiller7 ( $800 )
Seat 5: GoTuToFoLD ( $625 )
Seat 7: murphyda ( $1000 )
Seat 9: IamBoognish ( $2655 )
Seat 8: Oliver19 ( $620 )
Trny:16320809 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ks Jc ]

GoTuToFoLD folds.
Texas_Tiger folds.
murphyda calls [15].
Oliver19 calls [15].
IamBoognish folds.
Bemben18 folds.
HERO calls [5].
dreamkiller7 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, 5d, 6c ] POT = 60

HERO bets [55].
dreamkiller7 folds.

murphyda raises [185].

Oliver19 folds.
HERO folds.

[schwza]

i'd fold for sure there.

I'd say its a standard fold without any really specific reads.

What if you pushed? You would be called by 55 or 66, or maybe even QK concidering its a $22, and I dont see villain raising that amount with anything else very often at all.

What if you called? You would probably be forced to check/fold the turn unless a jack or king fell, and its not even very certain youre ahead then.

This looks to me like like a decently solid villain protecting a set from a board with lots of draws (especially against limpers like you).

[zambonidrivr]

fold preflop. pretty cut and dry.

u have donked off roughly 9% of your stack with KJ.
i know this sounds harsh, but ask yourself this.... what expectations did you have limping into this pot? so you hit a king... now what? reasonable chance you're out kicked. so you hit 2 pair and are rerised as you were here... then what? rule of thumb for me,,, know what your expectations are when entering a hand, and know when to get out. It's level 1, what's the upside? multi action limped pots are a great way to get out early.

my $.02

[schwza]

hero is SB.

and it's under 7%.

[sahala]

While I agree that it's a fold, obviously villain somehow picked up 200 chips a few hands earlier, so you have at least one read. Was it uncontested, or did he show down a decent hand?

Regardless I wouldn't be surprised to see two pair, a set, or KQ.

[pokerdirty]

tell me who that is in your avatar and where i can find her naked, i'll tell you if it's a bad fold... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[SonnyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop. pretty cut and dry.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's getting 11:1 on a preflop call with KJ out of the SB and it doesn't impact his stack very much. I think you have to at least see some cards with it.

I realize it's a tough hand to play postflop and unless you end up with 2 pair or better you aren't going to be playing very confidently, but it's a very small investment. I like hero's line here.

-SonnyJay

[jedinite]

That's Jessica Simpson from her latest (?) video of her done up in the Dukes of Hazard gear, washing the General Lee. You can probably find the video on MTV.com (pure assumption) but knowing who/what should help you cut it down

[unreal_nh]

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop. pretty cut and dry.

u have donked off roughly 9% of your stack with KJ.
i know this sounds harsh, but ask yourself this.... what expectations did you have limping into this pot? so you hit a king... now what? reasonable chance you're out kicked. so you hit 2 pair and are rerised as you were here... then what? rule of thumb for me,,, know what your expectations are when entering a hand, and know when to get out. It's level 1, what's the upside? multi action limped pots are a great way to get out early.

my $.02

[/ QUOTE ]

i really dont think folding preflop is "cut and dry".. what am i getting there, 11 to 1? what am i expecting for a flop? well trips would be nice (i would be happy with my kicker).. maybe a straight? i really dont think i can fold this preflop

i think i need to bet out on the flop to see where i'm at -- i would consider this move less donkish since you could lose more check calling. i think check-folding is just way too weak tight. there is a very good chance i could have the best hand there.

[beeyjay]

calling preflop is cut and dry. folding is just intact and wet.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
hero is SB.

and it's under 7%.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I dont play 800 chip games, but I dont see what's so bad about the way hero played this hand.

The fold is fine given your line of play. Your goal in Party's STTs is to get to level 4 (50-100) with at least 600 chips preferably 650, since fold equity in later levels is how to pump up the ROI. No need to risk any more chips in a situation where you are most likely beaten.

Regarding your limp from the SB with KJ, I think it's fine. The 5 chips you pay are nothing. The only thing to be careful of is investing too much when you hit a marginal flop. Betting 55 like you did is great for cash game play (I prefer 40-50 personally given the pot size), or if you know all the opponents are tough and that it's going to be 7+ handed at the 50-100 level. However, the $20+$2 STTs are all about play in the later levels. If you have an easy double up in the first 2-3 levels, take it. If not, run away to guarantee that you are in the fight later. In the $30+$3 STTs and below, I play roughly like the following. In the first two levels, I raise to 4xBB plus an extra BB per limper with [AA,QQ]. In unraised pots, I limp with [JJ,22], looking to flop a set. I also limp with [AK,AQ] (why raise, risking 10% or more of your stack in a situation where you can only continue when you hit 1/3.2ish times). When I hit the flop, I bet 2x-3x pot to take the pot down right there...I don't want to leak away two 2/3 pot bets to a flush draw that hits. If I get reraised all-in, I call in these $20+$2s because, well, people there will play back at an overbet with a wide range of trash. I fold all other hands except the SB, in which I limp with any two cards in an unraised pot looking to get two pair or better. If I hit, I again play it hard. If I just hit top pair, I keep the brakes on. My play early is really weak tight, but the chips lost by not taking +EV situations that I give up early are small compared to the size of the blinds once the tourney really starts (level 4).

[MegaBet]

This is where notes/reads are important. If I have neither, I give them the benefit of the doubt and fold. The large raise might not suggest 55 or 66, but then overbetting monsters seems to be the fashion at the moment. K5 or K6 are both very possible. Unlikely to be KQ or a flush draw IMO. I have seen people do this with K9/K10.

[fisherman112]

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop. pretty cut and dry.

u have donked off roughly 9% of your stack with KJ.
i know this sounds harsh, but ask yourself this.... what expectations did you have limping into this pot? so you hit a king... now what? reasonable chance you're out kicked. so you hit 2 pair and are rerised as you were here... then what? rule of thumb for me,,, know what your expectations are when entering a hand, and know when to get out. It's level 1, what's the upside? multi action limped pots are a great way to get out early.

my $.02

[/ QUOTE ]

he was the small blind.
kj isnt necessarily running into kicker trouble in limped pots at 20+2s.

[flyingmoose]

I'd fold that even in an MTT -- and I'm a laggy psycho in MTTs. In an STT, I probably break my mouse by hitting fold so hard.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold that even in an MTT -- and I'm a laggy psycho in MTTs. In an STT, I probably break my mouse by hitting fold so hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what do you put villain on to make you fold so enthusiastically?

[fisherman112]

i put him on building a large pot against me early in an stt when im out of position with a vunerable hand and virtually no way of knowing exactly what he has.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
i put him on building a large pot against me early in an stt when im out of position with a vunerable hand and virtually no way of knowing exactly what he has.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go all in and you'll soon find out how strong/weak his hand is! j/k /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Irieguy]

I have no idea... your avatar is mesmirizing.

Irieguy

Given that Villian didn't raise preflop, we can rule out AK (unless he plays like me). However, KQ, 66, 55, and 65 are very real threats. There is also the possibility of him semi-bluffing a flush draw or an outside straight draw. If the semi-bluff is an ace-high flush draw, then you are introducing unnecessary variance early in the tourney (12 outs with two cards to come, unless you have a diamond, which is still 11 outs with two cards to come). Even if it's an outside straight draw, you still only win the pot 2/3 of the time. One possibility is to call, and if no draw hits, put a strong bet in on the turn, but that's risking too many chips in this marginal situation. The only hands you have beaten more than 70/30 are [KT,K7]. Fold and save your chips for later.

[lastchance]

Again, I prefer checking and seeing how the hand develops. OOP sucks, the only thing that represents real strength is a check-raise or a 3-bet, and check-raising saves you a lot of chips.

OOP, the only weapons you have are the check-raise and the 3-bet. Leading without being able to 3-bet can put you in a world of hurt. So, I tend to check a lot OOP to try to save chips in spots like these.

[ QUOTE ]
Your goal in Party's STTs is to get to level 4 (50-100) with at least 600 chips preferably 650

[/ QUOTE ]

Can a seasoned veteran back me up in saying that this is really bad advice. The goal is to have MORE chips than when you started.

Also, calling 1/3 of the BB is not horrible, if the OP can get away from his hand when a flop like this comes than he has every right to play it. I don't think the OP did anything wrong in this hand.

The problem I have with Check/raising is that it allows the villians to draw for free, which is very bad for a hand as vunreble as this.

The check-raise and the stop-and-go are great weapons here out of position, especially in cash game play or when you are deeply stacked in a tournament. However, both plays require an investment of about 100-150 more chips than our hero already invested, meaning that they actually cost more if against an opponent who will only raise the hero's bet with a better hand in the first place. Simply put, these are the types of hands that cripple players or eliminate them. In a cash game, I like calling the raise and immediately throwing a bet out on the turn, since the increased liklihood of semi bluffing there makes it more likely that your hand is best, making it +EV chipwise. In a STT, the hero's hand MAY still be slightly +EV chipwise (I still think it's crushed though), but the expected profit is so small, that it's better to fold, guaranteeing that you won't be crippled when the all-in war begins.

An interesting consideration is to change the hero's hand from KJ to AK. Assume that everything is the same pre-flop. How do you play from the flop onward? If you throw out the same 55 bet that the hero did and get raised, how do you respond?

[downtown]

I play the hand the same way as the OP and it's not really close.

[unreal_nh]

[ QUOTE ]


An interesting consideration is to change the hero's hand from KJ to AK. Assume that everything is the same pre-flop. How do you play from the flop onward? If you throw out the same 55 bet that the hero did and get raised, how do you respond?

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting... yeah, i would really like to know what some of you would do here. call the raise.. then check/call the turn? or reraise? i certainly cant see myself folding in this situation.

[valenzuela]

PrF: the call is fine.
PoF: I much rather check...I might call a 15 bet...

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
The fold is fine given your line of play. Your goal in Party's STTs is to get to level 4 (50-100) with at least 600 chips preferably 650, since fold equity in later levels is how to pump up the ROI. No need to risk any more chips in a situation where you are most likely beaten.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is going to be interesting. I'm with ya on this. While I would prefer to have more chips at 50/100 than when I started, the risk for me is having much less. I can pick my fights at Level 4 and beyond with 600-700 chips. Less than that, I'm working my butt off. Getting more chips early requires that I risk more, when playing any hand is more risky. Conserving chips is more EV for me than gaining chips.

If there weren't more than one way to play, nobody would play.

This hand, I'd put in 5TC to see the flop. Unless it hits absolutely perfectly for me, I'm done. I've only got one or two chances to get chips without getting in trouble. This is one of those. Any more chips in, and this is the ONLY one.

Here's another scenario. Same hand. Instead of a K, high card is a J. Does this change the way you play?

CJ

nh unreal

Am I the only one who feels like people are consistently taking the "play tight early" advice a little too far?

[valenzuela]

My goal is to reach level 4 with the most chips as possible.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
nh unreal

Am I the only one who feels like people are consistently taking the "play tight early" advice a little too far?

[/ QUOTE ]

Define too far? Maybe you are thinking weak/tight? If you're saying my desire is to survive mostly intact until the blinds are 50/100 and above, then you would be correct. If you are saying I'll fold to easily or won't play good hands, then you are not so correct. I agree I play tight. I do not agree I play weak/tight.

Typical Party Poker SNG--11s and 22s. You have two players who are idiots. They're usually gone early. They're NOT taking me with them. You have six who are struggling to get into the late game. They range from clueless to careless to tight/nervous. You have one who is as good or better than you. And you. You're at least 50/50 to get ITM, provided you survive the early rounds. Take a shot or two, but don't use up all your ammunition during the skirmishes. Wait for the real battle to begin. That's when the Warriors win.

That's wrong?

CJ

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]
You're at least 50/50 to get ITM, provided you survive the early rounds.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you have 50%+ itm over several thousand sngs?

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
You're at least 50/50 to get ITM, provided you survive the early rounds.

That's wrong?

CJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're at least 50/50 to get ITM, provided you survive the early rounds.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you have 50%+ itm over several thousand sngs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, but that's a typical response here. That's NOT what I said. I said, given the typical table at 11s and 22s, you are up against one other player as good as you are or better, usually. The ICM says with 10 people and 800 chips you have a 10% chance at the prize. Mathmatically, this may be correct, but in reality you are much better. You aren't competing with all 10, you're competing with 2 to 4 who have a realistic chance of getting ITM. They have less of a chance of winning. 5 out of the 10 have no realistic chance at all of winning the avg. SNG. If this doesn't make logical sense to you, I wish you luck.

Second, this fallback argument of "show us your stats over several thousand SNGs" is bogus and laughable. If you do not KNOW how good you are in a much shorter period of time, you're not smart enough to play this game at any reasonably high level. If you don't know how good you are in comparison to your competition, you're not very good. Remember the quote from Rounders? If you can't tell who the fish is, it's you? You shouldn't need thousands of results to tell you this. If you do, you're an idiot and probably going to lose. I'm using the General You, not specifically you, Nicholas. I know you're smart, too smart to use this in an argument. It's the Official Chant of 2+2, and it's ridiculous. Is your bankroll going up? You are good. One doesn't need thousands of results to prove anything to anyone.

That's my opinion and it should be yours too. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

CJ

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're at least 50/50 to get ITM, provided you survive the early rounds.

That's wrong?

CJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not.

Shall we continue this back and forth or would you like to put forth some reason for why it's wrong?

CJ