How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold'EM

Okay here's the deal. I am relatively new to online poker and poker in general. I have read TOP, Lee Jones' Low Limit Hold'Em, and SSHE. I am currently re-reading SSHE. I consider myself to be a better than average newbie because of my background in blackjack (successful cardcounting for the past 3 years). I understand variance, risk of ruin, and more importantly discipline. I have read that 300 BB is a relatively standard bank for a reasonable risk of ruin, 500 is even better. I have purchased PT and Playerview, I have logged about 6000 hands (and I realize that is statistically insignificant). I am presently down 100 BB. Assuming I am at least halfway decent, is being down 100 BB in 6000 hands reasonable. Is it maybe a couple Standard Deviation negative swing or do I just suck.

Thanks for the help,
-Shaggy

[sy_or_bust]

Perfectly reasonable. You cannot conclude anything from 6000 hands, as you suspect. This is also a good time to analyze your play, as it is more likely that you are making mistakes you can correct. Post hands.

[mtdoak]

100 BB downswings are part of the buisness and not uncommon. 6k hands really isn't a large sample space to determine much. Your game may have glaring leaks, and I suspect you probably have spotted a few. That being said, if you feel you are playing well and the downswing hasn't affected you to the point where your tilting, you should just play through it. Running bad happens. Downswings can go up to 200-300 BB or in extreme cases, I've heard of as much as 500 BB downswings.

[krimson]

This swing is definitely within variance.

However, statistcally speaking, it's now more likely that you are a losing player than a winning one, even if this is not yet a "significant" assessment. So make sure you don't just shrug off a loss to variance when you're potentially leaking like crazy.

[MainEvent]

I've lost 400 dollars at 2/4 in a lot less than 6K hands. So it is definitely within reason.

But as a beginner, you are probably making at least a few routine mistakes. Sort your starting hands by BB/100 hands. Look for starting hands that are doing poorly for you (especially ones you'd expect to be winning with) and post them here.

It is definitely with in limits of variance. However I would be more worried at this point that you have some pretty big leaks. I recently went through a bigger downswing then this and after analyzing my play found some leaks that, while running good have little effect but when the cards turn it was absolutely crippling. If in doubt post some hands that you are unsure of. It has definitely helped me

[peterchi]

[ QUOTE ]
I've lost 400 dollars at 2/4 in a lot less than 6K hands. So it is definitely within reason.


[/ QUOTE ]
Just wanted to clarify the reasoning behind this post.

The fact that we have all lost 100BB in less than 6k hands is not evidence that losing 100BB in 6k hands is reasonable. Many of our 100BB downswings probably take a few hundred hands or so to occur.

But that doesn't imply that the same drop over a longer span is okay.

For example, if he were to be down 100BB over a span of 500,000 hands, I think we would all be a little bit concerned.

That said, -100BB in 6k hands is nothing to worry about. Sucky, but completely reasonable.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
after analyzing my play found some leaks that, while running good have little effect but when the cards turn it was absolutely crippling.

[/ QUOTE ]
A leak is a leak regardless of how well you're running.

[ QUOTE ]
after analyzing my play I found some leaks that, while running good are difficult to notice but when the cards turn it was the mistakes I was making were perfectly obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.

Thanks for the replies. Would it make any difference if I said that within the first 1000 hands I was up 225 BB and now have swung to being down 100 BB. Basically a downswing of 325BB in 5000 hands.

I feel my preflop play is solid. I use the info in SSHE as a strict guideline. I believe my post flop play is definently a weakness, but that will improve with reading and applying what I have read. I think within the first couple thousand hands I was calling down a little too much. I have tightened since then with a little aggression in the mix.

I feel I have definitely played better poker in the last 4000 hands, but have lost 300+BB in that time.

I have experienced big swings in blackjack, but have the experience to know that I am playing a winning game and it just comes with the territory. I need this confidence in poker. Large losses happen in blackjack, and I am hardened by them, they don't tilt me in blackjack and I believe they don't tilt me in poker. It sounds like I am just experiencing a bad downswing although my game does need to improve.

Thanks, any more input is welcomed.
-Shaggy

[Dagger78]

225 BB up in 1000 hands is really running good. Since you swung down 325 BB in 5k after that I would begin to worry.

How many hands are you playing, ie was is your VPIP?

My guess is you are playing WAY too many hands which could account for the swings.

[droolie]

I think you're a losing player. 325BB is a big downswing in the beginning of a career. If it had come after 10,000 hands of winning play I'd be slightly more optimistic that you're a winner.

If I were you I'd move down to the .50/1 game and study your ass off in the micro forum until you beat it like a drum for 10,000 hands. Then play 10,000 winning 6-max hands while studying your ass off in the HUSH forum. Once you are handling the 1/2 6-max game you should be ready to dominate the 2/4. Good luck.

Keep playing. As much as you can. Play, post, ponder. Rinse and repeat. You probably just aren't good enough to consistently win yet, I know I'm not. Give it time. You'll get there. 100BB could just be a fluctuation, but you should probably just worry about improving. If you start to sweat your bankroll, think about getting a job (if you don't already have one). Playing less than 2/4 for anything other than bonuses is incredibly difficult long-term.

[ QUOTE ]
after analyzing my play I found some leaks that, while running good are difficult to notice but when the cards turn it was the mistakes I was making were perfectly obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes they were fairly obvious after the fact. But at the time I was not looking as hard for them so they were not as obvious.

[Petteri]

I would suggest you buy Middle Limit Holdem Poker by Ciaffone and Brier. I think it is the best limit holdem book available. Middle limit holdem gives excellent advice how to handle pots were there are mainly somehow decent players in the pot.

I live in Europe and play usually around 11 am - 4 pm EST and I face great many regulars.

In the U.S daytime in good Party 2/4 $ table there is usually only 2-3 really bad players in the table, sometimes only 1-2. Rest of the bunch have some idea about the game and you need fighting skills to win extra pots against typical Party 2/4 $ player.

Almost all of your profits comes from poor players, but you cannot afford to loose money (after rake) to regulars if you want to be successful.

Only playing full ring it is hard to develop toughness needed to handle heads up and 3 handed pots against TAGs. If you want to improve limit your holdem, short-handed play is good practice. In short-handed tables you can learn to fight hard every chip and not to lose iniative too easily. For example in Crypto and Pokerstars you can find pretty soft short-handed 2/4 $ games. Cryptos offer nice monthly bonuses too.

As mentioned after the first couple thousand hands, I realized that I was calling down too much.
Below are my stats for the 6000 hands
VP$IP: 20.3
PFR: 8.66
AGG: 2.36

Just the last 2000 hands:
VP$IP:19.38
PFR: 7.88
AGG: 4.10

I don't think I am playing too many starting hands, I believe I am probably still going too far with them.

-Shaggy

[ QUOTE ]
In the U.S daytime in good Party 2/4 $ table there is usually only 2-3 really bad players in the table, sometimes only 1-2. Rest of the bunch have some idea about the game and you need fighting skills to win extra pots against typical Party 2/4 $ player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I need to tighten up my table selection criteria until I improve myself. The SSHE preflop strategies seem to be geared towards games where approx 4-5 players see the flop, I wouldn't say that the party 2/4 games I have played in averaged that. Maybe 3-4 players seeing the flop. I am probably playing too loose for this game. The middle limit hold'em book is most likely a good recommendation. I will pick it up. When I finish re-reading SSHE I plan to read HPFAP which I have already purchased. I will then read the Ciaffone book.

Thanks

[Fishlips_Jones]

What were these leaks you noticed?



Fishlips

[MainEvent]

[ QUOTE ]
Just wanted to clarify the reasoning behind this post.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you. I should have put more thought into my post. I meant what you said.

I know there is an extra rake for the Bad Beat Jackpot
But - the number of fish per table is higher.

ie. Many people playing whose primary motivation is to hit the jackpot.

[smokylosecannon]

[ QUOTE ]
As mentioned after the first couple thousand hands, I realized that I was calling down too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your WtSD%. Too high of number indicates your are calling down too much. it should be somewhere 30-33%. You may find this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=2129882 &fpart=&PHPSESSID=)thread helpful. Keep in mind though, 6000 hands are VERY small sample size.


Also, to spot leak, you may want to read this (http://www.bet-the-pot.com/poker-tracker-part-5ia-page67.html)article. I found this article very helpful.