Fold this set on the river in 14BB pot?

[veganmav]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero folds, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

In my opionion everything was standard until the river. after MP2 springs to life on this river, I figure I have to be behind, probably to the flush. I am getting 7 to 1 on a call, but I Just don't see myself being ahead in this spot enough. I figure a good fold here saves me 2 BB's and I feel that the fold here is higher EV than the calling 2 cold. Is anyone else finding a fold here?

[veganmav]

Nobody wants to comment so I will.
Have you considered that you only have to win 1 in 7 times here? I think you are winning against AK and/or some other kind of two pair enough to make calling +EV

[IndieMatty]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody wants to comment so I will.
Have you considered that you only have to win 1 in 7 times here? I think you are winning against AK and/or some other kind of two pair enough to make calling +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

This was a tough one. I don't think I've ever folded a set. And I'm sure thats -EV. I also might three bet the turn.

[rigoletto]

I see no problem folding this. MP2's call on the turn is really scary!

[veganmav]

[ QUOTE ]
I see no problem folding this.

[/ QUOTE ] But isn't it possible that I'm ahead 14% of the time here?

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see no problem folding this.

[/ QUOTE ] But isn't it possible that I'm ahead 14% of the time here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Everything is possible, but given sensible opposition I think you are ahead less than 5% of the time when a player calls two cold on the turn when the flush comes and then raises the river.

[steveyz]

Unlikely unless MP2 is stupid or extremely overaggressive. Plus MP1 may 3-bet as you're not closing the action on the river.

[veganmav]

[ QUOTE ]
also might three bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you 3b this turn, and you get raised, what are you doing on the river UI?

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
Unlikely unless MP2 is stupid or extremely overaggressive. Plus MP1 may 3-bet as you're not closing the action on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does it matter that you are not closing the action? If MP1 3-bets, this becomes an easy fold, and you don't lose any more chips.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see no problem folding this.

[/ QUOTE ] But isn't it possible that I'm ahead 14% of the time here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think of it this way. If everyone has random hands, you'll win 33% of the time. 14% is a bit under half of 33%, meaning that you actually have to be ahead here a bit under "half your fair share" to merit a call here.

My point is simply that you actually have to be ahead quite a lot to merit a call here. In a three handed pot 14% is kind of an ambitious number.

I think folding is fine here with bottom set. A higher set might be harder to fold, as it would be possible that MP2 is super-slow-playing a smaller set, but I doubt you'll win all that often here. You also have to deal with the potential of MP1 re-opening the betting.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I've ever folded a set

[/ QUOTE ]

and IM the chip spewer lol

Barron

[IndieMatty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I've ever folded a set

[/ QUOTE ]

and IM the chip spewer lol

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

You are too? Cool!

[MitchL]

A read on villain would be extremely helpful.

[DpR]

I actually think this is a super easy fold unless the river raiser is a maniac. I think you are good on this river about 1 in 100.

[sthief09]

seems like an easy turn 3-bet to me. when you underrepresent your hand then make big laydowns, bad things happen

[DeeJ]

Super easy river fold, I agreed. FWIW I'd be c/raising the flop to trap the field and get more money in whilst I am ahead.

If you had given us some king of read it would have helped. If MP2 is a maniac bluffer I call. But if he's like 99% of players, you don't call 2 on the turn and then raise into two others unless you have at least a set (all of which you lose to) or more probably the straight or flush here. It's just possible I suppose that against 2 loose players you could be ahead of 2 2-pair hands. But we don't have that information on your post.

[veganmav]

[ QUOTE ]
seems like an easy turn 3-bet to me. when you underrepresent your hand then make big laydowns, bad things happen

[/ QUOTE ]

On this turn aren't I probably behind?
You're really 3betting this? I mean, what if I get capped, and don't fill up on the river? He probably has the flush, or higher set, I mean, I just don't see the point in 3betting this turn. Will someone englighten me please?

[veganmav]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW I'd be c/raising the flop to trap the field and get more money in whilst I am ahead.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm your right about the checkraise I think.
I was actualy hoping to get raised on the flop so I could make it three bets *shrug* If I had known it was'nt gonna work I would have checkraised

[elindauer]

It's always painful to fold a set, but I think you made the right play. Even if you are facing a bluff raise here, which isn't likely, you are probably behind the inital bettor anyways who is marked with a flush. Good fold. Get 'em next time.

There is an outside chance that the river raiser is bad and they both showed two pair aces up. Don't sweat it if they did, you made the right move.

-Eric