$55: I raise preflop, villain bets out 1/3 pot on flop. Blocking bet?

[AA suited]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t940)
BB (t1000)
UTG (t1155)
UTG+1 (t1000)
UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t1000)
MP2 (t940)
MP3 (t1000)
HERO (t990)
Button (t975)

Preflop: HERO is CO with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333"><font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 raises to t50, <font color="#CC3333">HERO raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds,MP3 calls t100.

Flop: (t325) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP3 bets t100, <font color="black"> HERO? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Lvl 1. No reads.

What do you make of villains 1/3pot bet?
- Do you think it's a blocking bet for his straight/flush draw?
- Do you think it's a probe bet to see if his middle pair is good?
- or???

And what would your plan of action be?</font>

[DarrenX]

With no read early in a tourney it's tough to say- with a good player it could be middle set looking for you to reraise with your possible overpair. Or it could be a blocking bet from a low PP who put you on AK. OR, it could very well be a flush draw trying to get a cheap one- wouldn't generally put him on middle pair, though...

With position I'd call here and reevaluate on the turn, trying to keep the pot small. If a blank hits and he bets again, I'm gone. A or K hits I'd still try and keep it small and check/call. Any heart hits I'd call a bet up to 150.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
With position I'd call here and reevaluate on the turn, trying to keep the pot small. If a blank hits and he bets again, I'm gone. A or K hits I'd still try and keep it small and check/call. Any heart hits I'd call a bet up to 150.


[/ QUOTE ]

my original plan was to just fold, but i like this line better. my only beef is that if a heart hits, i'm willing to call more than 150 in a 525 pot with 9 outs to the nuts and 0-9 additional outs.

[bluefeet]

Hmmmm. Got yourself in a pickle, didn't you?

Personally, I'm not a huge fan of reraising 10x PF this early. It effectively gets you HU, but with a pot size very difficult to "represent" without committing now 1/2 your chips (with or without his lead!).

So what are you telling villian PF? "I have a monster pair".

There's no reason you can't represent your "overpair" here on his weak lead. The question is how much. To figure this out, we have to make sense of his weak lead.

He opened for 3.5x, and called a huge reraise to 10x out of position. Unfortunately, many will do this with just about any pair, or big Ace. I think we can rule out him flopping a set based on his lead. While he'd be looking to take it down on the flop, I think he has to know you almost have to continue here given your PF reraise. AA/KK would most likely come back overtop PF.

So that leaves us with an underpair, or a big Ace. With you holding the Ace of hearts, we can assume it's unlikely he's drawing to this flush. It'd be my guess that he's holding AQ, testing you for the overpair you told him you had PF.

Considering his likely holding, you might now only be drawing to the King, or a backdoor flush.

For this reason, I don't like calling - as you are unlikely to pull ahead. Not to mention this sign of weakness could open the door for a more aggressive lead from him on the turn.

I'm not a huge fan of raising either. The problem is, if he is holding TPTK, he's unlikely to fold a small raise (which is all you can afford to do, if you plan to have an exit).

Push or fold IMO.

Of course a push over his weak lead would successfully continue the "I have a monster overpair" theme, but will he fold TPTK? I guess this is totally up to you. If it works, you're picking up a very nice t425 pot L1. If not...you technically do have outs still.

Folding certainly is reasonable.

Not that it might make a huge difference in 5-10min, but something else to consider is the image you'll have created for yourself. Folding a weak lead after reraising 10x PF? Strongly pushing over his weak lead - continuing from your MAJOR show of strength PF. The former could make things a little more difficult for you, haven been chip damaged a bit early.

Either one I suppose. With your PF play, I think I push this.

[Matt R.]

Looks like a probe bet to me. Your re-raise preflop looks a lot like AA or KK to him, and he's testing you on the flop to see what you have. I bet he's holding something like AQ or JJ. I think he folds if you push.

I'm not a big fan of the re-raise preflop here either, but once you get to this spot I think you can take him off his hand if you push. You could also just raise to 350-400 or something, which may be just as effective.

It's also possible that he has hearts, a set, or simply just won't believe you and will call with a pair, so this is obviously a risky play. However, I do think he will fold his hand a lot if you push or make a substantial raise in this spot.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
It'd be my guess that he's holding AQ, testing you for the overpair you told him you had PF.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
but will he fold TPTK?

[/ QUOTE ]

if he has AQ, he's not testing you for anything. he's trying to get all his chips in the middle. he's not folding AQ on this flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Considering his likely holding, you might now only be drawing to the King, or a backdoor flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

i'd be surprised if at least 3 J's were not outs.


[ QUOTE ]
If it works, you're picking up a very nice t425 pot L1. If not...you technically do have outs still.


[/ QUOTE ]

pokenum -h ah kd - as qs -- qh th 6c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 6c Qh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Ah 298 30.10 681 68.79 11 1.11 0.307
As Qs 681 68.79 298 30.10 11 1.11 0.693

or.... about as good as an oesd.

it's a pretty big flop push. you'd be risking 650 to win the 425 pot. i don't think it's horrible, but i think calling is a little better.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]

i'd be surprised if at least 3 J's were not outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. I overlooked the J's. Even more reason to push IMO.

Again, I'm not a big fan of being in this spot myself. Pushing L1, hoping he folds - because we're most certainly behind is not a situation to be in.

But I don't like calling here. We're calling for 7 outs on the turn, most likely facing another lead from villian. Where now, without a turn heart, making an extremely costly call for another card -- one that may or may not put us ahead.

I like raising better than calling (but not as good as pushing/folding). A raise to t300 would likely get you the river card as cheap, if not cheaper, than calling this flop lead.

[AA suited]

- could be a blocking bet for a flush draw.
- could be a probe bet for JJ. (although i thought probe bets were suppose to be a little less than 1/2 pot, not 1/3 pot?)

- as for him having a set and trapping me, thats also possible. I played my hand strongly preflop. If I have AA, i would come over the top of his weak bet for fear of him drawing. so he gets more chips from me.

- but if he has AQ, why would tptk bet out only 100 chips into a 325 pot? I have 3.25:1 to call. That's more than enuf implied odds to call if i'm on a nut flush draw.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmmm. Got yourself in a pickle, didn't you?

Personally, I'm not a huge fan of reraising 10x PF this early. It effectively gets you HU, but with a pot size very difficult to "represent" without committing now 1/2 your chips (with or without his lead!).

So what are you telling villian PF? "I have a monster pair".

There's no reason you can't represent your "overpair" here on his weak lead. The question is how much. To figure this out, we have to make sense of his weak lead.

He opened for 3.5x, and called a huge reraise to 10x out of position. Unfortunately, many will do this with just about any pair, or big Ace. I think we can rule out him flopping a set based on his lead. While he'd be looking to take it down on the flop, I think he has to know you almost have to continue here given your PF reraise. AA/KK would most likely come back overtop PF.

So that leaves us with an underpair, or a big Ace. With you holding the Ace of hearts, we can assume it's unlikely he's drawing to this flush. It'd be my guess that he's holding AQ, testing you for the overpair you told him you had PF.

Considering his likely holding, you might now only be drawing to the King, or a backdoor flush.

For this reason, I don't like calling - as you are unlikely to pull ahead. Not to mention this sign of weakness could open the door for a more aggressive lead from him on the turn.

I'm not a huge fan of raising either. The problem is, if he is holding TPTK, he's unlikely to fold a small raise (which is all you can afford to do, if you plan to have an exit).

Push or fold IMO.

Of course a push over his weak lead would successfully continue the "I have a monster overpair" theme, but will he fold TPTK? I guess this is totally up to you. If it works, you're picking up a very nice t425 pot L1. If not...you technically do have outs still.

Folding certainly is reasonable.

Not that it might make a huge difference in 5-10min, but something else to consider is the image you'll have created for yourself. Folding a weak lead after reraising 10x PF? Strongly pushing over his weak lead - continuing from your MAJOR show of strength PF. The former could make things a little more difficult for you, haven been chip damaged a bit early.

Either one I suppose. With your PF play, I think I push this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, does everyone really go through all of this thinking all the time?

To me, his bet could mean anything, including an attempt to keep me in when he has a monster hand. I missed with AK. Fold. End of story.

If I felt like doing a little more analysis... with a Q and T on the board, I have zero reason to think I'm ahead. I have three solid outs (I'm not feeling real good about J /images/graemlins/heart.gif ) and maybe a few others (either an A or K could easily make him two-pair.) OK, I still fold.

[AA suited]

i raised to 400. he folded.

But if he would have called, i would have checked on the turn if it was a blank, and folded to any bet on a blank river.

but what if the turn or river was an Ace and he bets out 150 again? /images/graemlins/confused.gif