HU blinds against LAG IP

[thesharpie]

Villain is laggy in the sense he likes to bet out alot with marginal holdings, he'll bet low pair multiway on the flop and turn, he bet middle pair all the way into me heads up when I raised preflop with an A on board. The type to just bet bet bet heads up if he's shown no aggression.

Pokerroom 2/4 9 handed

Folded to him in SB and he raises, I 3 bet red queens in the BB, he calls.

Flop K94 all /images/graemlins/club.gif

He bets, I call

Turn J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4BB)

Bet, call

River 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (6BB)

Bet, what the hell do I do and did I play it correct up until now?

[silkyslim]

since there are only 4 suits, isnt the villian just a little over 50% to have a flush (2 cards*1/4)? How do I factor in the chance that he flopped a flush, does that even matter? Im confused

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
since there are only 4 suits, isnt the villian just a little over 50% to have a flush (2 cards*1/4)? How do I factor in the chance that he flopped a flush, does that even matter? Im confused

[/ QUOTE ]
Assuming villain will play any two, the 4 clubs on board mean there are 1,128 hands remaining for villain to have (48 choose 2). Of these, 342 hands have one club in them (9 clubs * 39 'safe' cards), and 36 have two clubs (9 choose 2). So if he plays any two, he has a flush 378 out of 1128 times, or 33.5% of the time here.

Of course, in the real world, a monotone flop is going to make a person much more likely to stick around with one of that suit, but the math shows that we're rarely going to be certain enough to fold heads up on the end.

Also, why aren't we raising the turn for value?

[thesharpie]

Thanks for working that out.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, why aren't we raising the turn for value?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't want to be bluffed off the best hand, I think we have to fold if he 3 bets. Plus he's probably bluffing the river anyway so I don't have to worry about extracting from a drawing hand if that's the case.

[Paxosmotic]

The only problem I have with that is that we're going to be frozen if the river is any of a club, a queen, a ten, or an ace. I'd like very much to get an extra bet in with what figures to be the best hand a vast majority of the time, and I'd like to do it before any cards can come that would potentially ruin my party.

[thesharpie]

Are you betting a blank river for value then? If you're not 2BB is probably going in regardless if we just calldown and we avoid either folding the best hand or paying 4BB to showdown.

[Paxosmotic]

If he checks to me, yes. If he donks it then I conduct a breast exam and call.

Edit : What's key here for me is your read that he will bet less than top pair all the way down. I am far from convinced that this man holds a king or two clubs.

[JojoDiego]

First, the disclaimer: I'm learning, and I frequently struggle in blinds battles.

So, what about folding the flop? Sure he's a LAG, but you 3-bet him preflop, and he's STILL betting into you on a K-high, 3-flush board. Hard for me to see how he doesn't have a K or a club here. Or maybe even a set? Maybe I'm just getting gun-shy...

Or, if you really think he's bluffing/semi-bluffing here, maybe you should raise the flop? Try to shake things out before you get to the turn/river.

[thesharpie]

Folding the flop would be bad even if he has either a king or a club. He could have something like an ace with no club or even undercards with no club so I didn't want to slow him down on the flop. If he's bluffing we do better to let him keep firing, and if he's semibluffing we should either raise the turn or just calldown if he'll fire the river, I think.

Edit: Also a 3 bet on the flop doesn't mean we're beat, so those times we are way behind we don't spew if we take a passive line.

[AaronS]

I think you played this hand ok. I might have raised the flop, then called down if he 3-bet. I would definately call the river in your line. A player who will bet bottom/mid pair into 5 or 6 could be betting almost anything here in a blind confrontation.