Russian Roulette for $1 Million?

[frostbrn]

My friend and I are having a discussion as to whether or not a person would play 1 round of Russian Roulette for a guaranteed $1M from someone with too much money who just wants to pay to see someone try it. The game would be standard rules: a 6 shot revolver only 1 bullet in the chamber, a good spin of the chamber and no looking before you put it up to your temple and pull the trigger. If you lose, the $1M would still be paid to the beneficiary of your choice. I say that whether or not a person would take this deal would depend a great deal on their personal situation in life, but probably at least 10% of people asked would take it. She says that absolutely no one would take that deal, and after going over some extraneous situations (extremely suicidal people, etc.) she's conceded to less than 1% of people asked would do it. How many of you would do it, and why or why not?

[edfurlong]

I would never do it, but 1 million has got to be way to low for any american. Its not even enough to retire on these days.

[PoBoy321]

I put "For more money I'd consider it" but it would have to be a LOT more money, I mean upwards of 250 million. It would have to be enough to be sure that myself (if I survived), my friends and family could all live comfortably for the rest of their lives.

[shant]

Life > Money

[tdarko]

haven't we done this...twice already?

with 5 bullets!

[ddubois]

More than twice I think. If you include the "how much" and the "how many chambers" variations.

[WackityWhiz]

sign me up

[siccjay]

[ QUOTE ]
Life > Money

[/ QUOTE ]

[Klepton]

"do it"
:click:
"phew, now where's my one million!"
"here you go"
"wow what am i gonna do with this money?!?!?!?"
"well you gotta get it into a bank, and then the IRS is gonna be after you, and oh yeah if you want to buy a house, i suggest nothing more that a 3 bedroom/2bath. bye now!

[ QUOTE ]
"do it"
:click:
"phew, now where's my one million!"
"here you go"
"wow what am i gonna do with this money?!?!?!?"
"well you gotta get it into a bank, and then the IRS is gonna be after you, and oh yeah if you want to buy a house, i suggest nothing more that a 3 bedroom/2bath. bye now!

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, 4 bullets

[Ulysses]

Great thread and poll. Please post more often.

[WackityWhiz]

[ QUOTE ]
"do it"
:click:
"phew, now where's my one million!"
"here you go"
"wow what am i gonna do with this money?!?!?!?"
"well you gotta get it into a bank, and then the IRS is gonna be after you, and oh yeah if you want to buy a house, i suggest nothing more that a 3 bedroom/2bath. bye now!

[/ QUOTE ]

Get a Safe (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=exchange&Number=3531112&Fo rum=,,,,,,,,All_Forums,,,,,,,,&Words=&Searchpage=7 &Limit=25&Main=3531112&Search=true&where=&Name=167 71&daterange=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&older type=&bodyprev=#Post3531112) /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[TimM]

Fooled by Randomness (http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/158799190X/ref=sib_vae_pg_29/002-9592363-6338458?%5Fencoding=UTF8&keywords=million%20to%20p lay%20russian%20roulette&p=S01V&twc=1&checkSum=nAH bM%2FqNKdRP2qPD8AAcdt9gorQP6gvh9jkN%2BMjXaCc%3D#re ader-page)

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
"do it"
:click:
"phew, now where's my one million!"
"here you go"
"wow what am i gonna do with this money?!?!?!?"
"well you gotta get it into a bank, and then the IRS is gonna be after you, and oh yeah if you want to buy a house, i suggest nothing more that a 3 bedroom/2bath. bye now!

[/ QUOTE ]
He didn't say we'd have to play russian roulette in Southern California.

[peachy]

noway...not for ANY amount of money

Lets do a simulation:
1) Blank +1 million
2) Blank +1 million
3) Blank +1 million
4) Blank +1 million
5) Blank +1 million
6) Bullet -infiniti
Net: +5 million -infiniti

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
6) Bullet -infiniti

[/ QUOTE ]

When you get the bullet, you lose more than a car.

[censored] I cant do math:
Per Spin: +833,333.33 - infiniti

right?

[PoBoy321]

I think it would just be -infinite, since (1,000,000 x 5 - infinite)/6 = -infinite, right?

[frostbrn]

[ QUOTE ]

Great thread and poll. Please post more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I realize now that I am the jerk who didn't see the other two threads about this. I apologize for clogging up the forum with a repetitive topic. Mods, please delete/lock this thread at your earliest convenience

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

There should be "I would never even consider this for any amount of money and it's not even close" option.

Edit: I should say at this point in my life. If I were terminally ill or really old, I'd be all up ons.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[censored] I cant do math:
Per Spin: +833,333.33 - infiniti

right?

[/ QUOTE ]

You life is not worth an infinite amount of money.

Let's say you drive to work in a car. Why go to work today for $200 (or whatever) if driving in a car increases your expectation of death .00001%?

$200 * 99.99999 + -infinity * .00001 = -infinity.

You apparently should never leave a bomb shelter.

[snowden719]

those who would not play for any amount of are seriously mistaken and or stupid. If for no other reason then when you die you can have the money sent to feed all the starving children in africa that would save thousands of lives. Although a million may be too low, no amount of money is just retarded.

[WackityWhiz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Great thread and poll. Please post more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I realize now that I am the jerk who didn't see the other two threads about this. I apologize for clogging up the forum with a repetitive topic. Mods, please delete/lock this thread at your earliest convenience

[/ QUOTE ]

it's ok... I don't mind repeating threads just because it's easy to miss some. The search function is pretty hard sometimes anyway.

[BobboFitos]

You can put an expected value on someone's life. But for most people the EV of the rest of their life is much greater then the deal offered. This is neg EV situation, therefore you should pass.

If I hypothesize 80 more years of life and lets say I think I'll make an average of 200k/yr of that, thats 16 million. For a chance to make 1/6 of that ~(around 3 million) 5 times and die once I guess I'd do it.

so yeah, if the deal was 3 million, I'd do it, but anyting less and it's a raw deal!

[w_alloy]

There has been a lot of research done in this field by economists. Here is a short summary of it. (http://slate.msn.com/id/2079475) This is not a great summary but the first I found by searching.

It doesnt give an exact amount, but I've heard most summary studies put it at a bit over 10 mil for the median person.

I would guess many people will try to make the arguments found in the above link and fail before this thread dies. I hope this is not true, and this is the last post.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[censored] I cant do math:
Per Spin: +833,333.33 - infiniti

right?

[/ QUOTE ]

You life is not worth an infinite amount of money.

Let's say you drive to work in a car. Why go to work today for $200 (or whatever) if driving in a car increases your expectation of death .00001%?

$200 * 99.99999 + -infinity * .00001 = -infinity.

You apparently should never leave a bomb shelter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your logic is flawed. That's risk a basically have to take. I'm essentially "not bankrolled" for the varience of playing the russian roulettle game.

Say you saw a really fishy 300 game that you know you would be a winner in. If your bankroll was 25BBs would you take a shot? There are different things to consider other than strict EV.

Yes, driving a car may be -inv EV, but I'm bankrolled for the risk since the varience is incredibly low and i'm shotgunning shorterm variance and locking up the win /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
those who would not play for any amount of are seriously mistaken and or stupid. If for no other reason then when you die you can have the money sent to feed all the starving children in africa that would save thousands of lives. Although a million may be too low, no amount of money is just retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree, people who won't regularly risk killing themselves at 5-1 odds are [censored] retards. The value of life is infinite, people who say 'how do you justify driving to work etc, 0.000001% chance of dying blah blah', well it's like this, don't move ever - risk of dying 100%.

Mack

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, driving a car may be -inv EV, but I'm bankrolled for the risk

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't matter how bankrolled you are. -EV is -EV. You shouldn't take it.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
those who would not play for any amount of are seriously mistaken and or stupid. If for no other reason then when you die you can have the money sent to feed all the starving children in africa that would save thousands of lives. Although a million may be too low, no amount of money is just retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree, people who won't regularly risk killing themselves at 5-1 odds are [censored] retards. The value of life is infinite, people who say 'how do you justify driving to work etc, 0.000001% chance of dying blah blah', well it's like this, don't move ever - risk of dying 100%.

Mack

[/ QUOTE ]

The value of life is not infinite. I don't feel like arguing with you because it won't make a difference.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Yes, driving a car may be -inv EV, but I'm bankrolled for the risk

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't matter how bankrolled you are. -EV is -EV. You shouldn't take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So would you play 100/200 on a 2k roll if it was +EV?

I'm sure you're a good poker player, go sit at the highest limit that you see fish in and let me know how it works out.

I saw a disgustingly good 150GBP game a while ago, but I didn't sit. Should I have?

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
The value of life is not infinite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say live in general is infinite. I said that I wouldn't take a significant risk of losing my own life for some large sum of money no matter how large. I enjoy life being not rich way too much to take that risk.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
The value of life is not infinite. I don't feel like arguing with you because it won't make a difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right it won't make a difference, taking 5-1 for a million dollars and losing your life 16.67% of the time is not good unless you are old and terminally ill. Nothing you can say would change that.

Regards Mack

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The value of life is not infinite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say live in general is infinite. I said that I wouldn't take a significant risk of losing my own life for some large sum of money no matter how large. I enjoy life being not rich way too much to take that risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post.

Mack

[phil_ivey_fan]

[ QUOTE ]
My friend and I are having a discussion as to whether or not a person would play 1 round of Russian Roulette for a guaranteed $1M from someone with too much money who just wants to pay to see someone try it. The game would be standard rules: a 6 shot revolver only 1 bullet in the chamber, a good spin of the chamber and no looking before you put it up to your temple and pull the trigger. If you lose, the $1M would still be paid to the beneficiary of your choice. I say that whether or not a person would take this deal would depend a great deal on their personal situation in life, but probably at least 10% of people asked would take it. She says that absolutely no one would take that deal, and after going over some extraneous situations (extremely suicidal people, etc.) she's conceded to less than 1% of people asked would do it. How many of you would do it, and why or why not?

[/ QUOTE ]


I can tell you that I would SERIOUSLY consider it for $20 Million (tax free, lump sum, off-shore bank account)

SERIOUSLY consider it



that is enough by the way to change your life and to retire on.


who's gonna break out the numbers on this.

PLAY
16.5% chance of immediate death
83.5% chance of immediate awesome life

NO PLAY
0% chance of immediate death
0% chance of immediate awesome life
100% chance of grinding it out in a 9-5 for $50k-$80k salary, with smart investments in real-estate putting kids through college... awesome life might start at age of 55-60 at which time you are too old to enjoy your money to the max as you could as an early twenty-something yr old.

[pokerdirty]

but if you lose, you'd become a case worker in hell for eternity, and i think that is just slighly -EV....

There are way too many happy and content people on this forum. Where are all the miserable, depressed mothereffers.

[phil_ivey_fan]

[ QUOTE ]
but if you lose, you'd become a case worker in hell for eternity, and i think that is just slighly -EV....

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt most ppl on 2p2 believe in hell (or a structured religion for that matter).

[Unabridged]

how about this:
you have a gun with 100 barrels and 1 bullett
the first time you pull the trigger you get $1 million, and every time after that it gets doubled.
how many times would you pull the trigger?

[theben]

i would so do it. no hesitation

[kyro]

you forgot the "for more chambers i'd do it"

for 1 billion chambers, i'd take $1M. -EV or not.

[Hamish McBagpipe]

"I'd flip a coin" was a good response from the other threads.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[censored] I cant do math:
Per Spin: +833,333.33 - infiniti

right?

[/ QUOTE ]

You life is not worth an infinite amount of money.



[/ QUOTE ]

You dont understand the reasoning. The idea is that if you lose your life, no amount of money is worth anything. Thus, all money loses all possible value. Thats why it is -infiniti.

I put the +833,333.33 just for clarification. Yes, any real number added with -infiniti is -infiniti.

[Bulldog]

Even if >10% of the people who respond to this poll say they'd do it, your friend is right and you are wrong.

Do you see why?

[Smarty]

[ QUOTE ]
how about this:
you have a gun with 100 barrels and 1 bullett
the first time you pull the trigger you get $1 million, and every time after that it gets doubled.
how many times would you pull the trigger?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good question and discussion about it needs to be pursued.

[send_the_msg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how about this:
you have a gun with 100 barrels and 1 bullett
the first time you pull the trigger you get $1 million, and every time after that it gets doubled.
how many times would you pull the trigger?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good question and discussion about it needs to be pursued.

[/ QUOTE ]

5 times

[tomahawk]

This thread had me thinking about something I actually gave much thought a while ago.

If I could run consistantly at 15bb/100 at any online limit as long as I wanted, but the moment I got a royal I died instantly, how long would I play?

I could obviously not avoid getting royals by folding hands that were drawing to it, just play normal.

I think I came to the conclusion that I'm glad i dont have this choice, because it would be hard not to play a little bit sometimes, even if I didnt want to.

I think the only thing that would make me not want to play just a little bit 300/600 GBP HU or something was if someone like my gf or mom died instead of me so that I'd have to think I killed them for just money if it was gonna happen.

edit: to say sorry if that was too much poker content, don't really know is tolerated.