Party 55s - 99 on the bubble vs big stack

[murfnyc]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2130)
Hero (t3247)
BB (t3553)
UTG (t1070)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t425</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t700</font>, Hero ???

I had a hard time deciphering the min-raise. Does it mean very strong or is it a weak-resteal attempt on the bubble?

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
Does it mean very strong or is it a weak-resteal attempt on the bubble?


[/ QUOTE ]

It almost certainly means one of those two things. I tend to call here and fold most flops, but then you could have guessed that about me anyway. I assume that when I connect I'm going to double through very often here,(They either have an overpair, or I can get them to try more mini bluffs until they pot commit themselves) so I don't think folding preflop is very good and I'm pretty sure that pushing is unwise.

Lori

[murfnyc]

So I just called figuring to lead most flops.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2130)
Hero (t3247)
BB (t3553)
UTG (t1070)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t425</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t700</font>, Hero calls t275.

Flop: (t1400) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
,(They either have an overpair, or I can get them to try more mini bluffs until they pot commit themselves)

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I don't lead at most flops if I miss.

Although it is probably wasteful, I stick to the plan of giving this pot up. It's not a disaster, if we play this hand weak we are still looking at a healthy ITM and our "bad" play in this pot will probably cause him to make mistakes later in the tourney.

If I feel like I can get to the river extremely cheaply, I will take that option, but my plan was to fold so I stick to the plan.

Lori

[murfnyc]

Well, this is about as good a flop as I was going to get (w/o spiking a set). So I fire a 1/2 pot bet, after the BB calls, I am now done with hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2130)
Hero (t3247)
BB (t3553)
UTG (t1070)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t425</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t700</font>, Hero calls t275.

Flop: (t1400) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t800</font>, BB calls t800.

Turn: (t3000) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks.

River: (t3000) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t1000</font>, Hero ???


Once again I have been put a difficult decision, is this a value bet or an attempt to steal this large pot?

I am getting 4-1 on my money, do I close my eyes and make the crying call?

[lorinda]

I think that having got this far, you now have to call.

It is precisely this mess that makes me fold on the flop, because although at each stage you appear to be getting good odds... you're only actually getting evens for the whole deal.

At this point however you're getting such monster value that I think calling is correct.

These pots very often end up this way if played to their conclusion, which is why I try to avoid playing them to their conclusion unless I think I want even money.

FWIW I think posting in this manner is very constructive as it stops any aftertiming at all from those who reply.

Lori

[murfnyc]

Lorinda,

Thanks for your responses. I do agree that this is a pot I am not sure I want to be involved in and in retrospect I should have played it for set value after getting re-raised.

And yes I did make a crying call and he showed KK.

Do you think if I make a smaller bet on the flop say 400tc (Harrington's probe bet), that buys me any info?

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think if I make a smaller bet on the flop say 400tc (Harrington's probe bet), that buys me any info?

[/ QUOTE ]

In theory this makes sense, but in practise I think he'll just raise to 800 whatever he has and you'll have all the same problems.

I'm actually interested to know how everyone else plays this because it's not the simplest of situations.

Lori

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you think if I make a smaller bet on the flop say 400tc (Harrington's probe bet), that buys me any info?

[/ QUOTE ]

In theory this makes sense, but in practise I think he'll just raise to 800 whatever he has and you'll have all the same problems.

I'm actually interested to know how everyone else plays this because it's not the simplest of situations.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I push pf at L5 in bubble (happy to steal w/ 99 b/c if T-A appear on board I am likely folding post flop...) but I am still not very good, and my post flop play is not great... I also play $11's /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Mr_J]

You don't wanna push a 20bb stack to just pick up a bb /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't wanna push a 20bb stack to just pick up a bb /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

good point, but I get tired of BB raising me, often all-in, so I lose my 3xbb bet anyway... by pushing... my decision is made

[murfnyc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't wanna push a 20bb stack to just pick up a bb /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

good point, but I get tired of BB raising me, often all-in, so I lose my 3xbb bet anyway... by pushing... my decision is made

[/ QUOTE ]

This is possibly the worst way you can play this hand....if both you and the BB have 20BBs. What hands is he possibly calling with JJ-AA and AK? Maybe at the 11s, people will call with hands you are actually ahead of (small pps and Ax), but I think this is a case where you win a tiny pot or you are way behind in a massive pot. That can't be optimal.

And are the 11s really that crafty, that they will re-raise a SB steal from the BB with air?

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
And are the 11s really that crafty, that they will re-raise a SB steal from the BB with air?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking two levels too high. They are actually that stupid that they don't know it's air.

Edit: The rest of your comments are correct, but I had to pull you on that /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Lori

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't wanna push a 20bb stack to just pick up a bb /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

good point, but I get tired of BB raising me, often all-in, so I lose my 3xbb bet anyway... by pushing... my decision is made

[/ QUOTE ]

This is possibly the worst way you can play this hand....if both you and the BB have 20BBs. What hands is he possibly calling with JJ-AA and AK? Maybe at the 11s, people will call with hands you are actually ahead of (small pps and Ax), but I think this is a case where you win a tiny pot or you are way behind in a massive pot. That can't be optimal.

And are the 11s really that crafty, that they will re-raise a SB steal from the BB with air?

[/ QUOTE ]

I tried my last game 'playing poker' (betting 3xbb) as opposed to being a pushbot. It worked out ok... took 2nd. Pushing may not be optimal, but it works. You would be surprised at what people call with... and suck out with at the $11's. Problem is I don't want to see a flop w/ 99. I am not sure, but I guess the chances are about 66% that T-A flops... then what do I do... lose chips? I don't know, nice post. It has given me food for thought.

[murfnyc]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2130)
Hero (t3247)
BB (t3553)
UTG (t1070)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t425</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t700</font>, Hero ???

I had a hard time deciphering the min-raise. Does it mean very strong or is it a weak-resteal attempt on the bubble?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bump....wondering if I could get a few more responses to this..

[jedinite]

I too like Lorinda's suggested line. Among other things, folding sets a bad precendent and now you're getting better than 3-1 to call. I'll call here, you've got enough chips to still exploit the bubble. And as suggested, i won't lead a lot of flops but will hope to get this hand shown down cheaply.

Come again?

IIRC, with 99 you are 29% to hit a set or overpair. AQ is 29% to hit top pair or better. And at least with 99 you have a pair post-flop. What *do* you want to see a flop with, AA/KK/QQ? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2130)
Hero (t3247)
BB (t3553)
UTG (t1070)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t425</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t700</font>, Hero ???

I had a hard time deciphering the min-raise. Does it mean very strong or is it a weak-resteal attempt on the bubble?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bump....wondering if I could get a few more responses to this..

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this is a $55, more astute players than the $22-$33s, but still you're the only stack that can cripple the BB so I think he is showing strength. I know this play may be made from crafty players that play the big stack well but now I'm definitely playing the 9s for set value because you're still in decent shape if you miss.

As far as pushing pre-flop, I really don't like it. Especially who I'm pushing in to and at the blind level you're at.

Any chance you recovered from this hit?

[murfnyc]

[ QUOTE ]

I know this is a $55, more astute players than the $22-$33s, but still you're the only stack that can cripple the BB so I think he is showing strength. I know this play may be made from crafty players that play the big stack well but now I'm definitely playing the 9s for set value because you're still in decent shape if you miss.

As far as pushing pre-flop, I really don't like it. Especially who I'm pushing in to and at the blind level you're at.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am in this situation, I definitely play again for set value...and I agree that our weak-tight play on this hand could set us up for a play in the future where we are clearly ahead....I do this alot heads-up with deep stacks, I may play weak-tight early, to try and trap later when the blinds are more meaningful...should have done the same here.

[ QUOTE ]

Any chance you recovered from this hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunely, I pushed the next 2 hands and was called the 2nd time by JJ and my A2s couldn't catch up...out on the bubble