Is using a Martingale system with a bonus a good idea?

[celiboy]

Last month I basically used Martingale to clear a couple of casino bonuses and it worked good. Basically the premise is if you lose at a BJ hand, your next bet is double, if you lose again double it again, etc until you get back to break even.

Well this month I busted out very early in a couple of bonuses using this system. I am basically too impatient to grind it out for a few hours to get a relatively measly bonus so I figure this way I'll bust out quick so I don't waste my time or it will work (and clear faster due to the larger bets).

Any thoughts?

[mattw]

if time is your major premise, then yes, clear fast or bust fast. i tried that approuch and find i would rather grind it out for a small hourly rate rather than win big or lose big quickly. i think its an individual preferance thing.

[Emperor]

MArtingaling actually increases your EV slightly, (you are making fewer, but bigger bets) but it also increases your variance exponentially! So if you can withstand the variance then by all means martingale, reverse martingale, martingale+1, martingale +10, whichever...

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Last month I basically used Martingale to clear a couple of casino bonuses and it worked good. Basically the premise is if you lose at a BJ hand, your next bet is double, if you lose again double it again, etc until you get back to break even.

Well this month I busted out very early in a couple of bonuses using this system. I am basically too impatient to grind it out for a few hours to get a relatively measly bonus so I figure this way I'll bust out quick so I don't waste my time or it will work (and clear faster due to the larger bets).

Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

As long as you have a decent sized bankroll, there's nothing wrong with clearing a bonus in this manner. You're increasing your average bet size, which means your variance will be higher, but your EV will be the same (actually it will be slightly higher since your average amount wagered will be less due to often busting before meeting the WR).

-- Homer

I used this system on InterCasino to turn my $180 in deposits and their $180 in bonii (Sept + Oct) into $1100.

Will probably try the same thing with Nov & Dec bonii.

Would also work well with the so called "sticky bonuses" that you can play with but not withdraw. They increase your effective bankroll and so decrease you risk of ruin.

[BigDave]

Personally, when I get in a funk of playing grind-it-out Black Jack, I use the following system with the monthlies, smaller bonuses, and stickies:

X = amount of chips you have

X < 100 = $15 bets

100 < X < 200 = $20

200 < X < 300 = $25

300 < X < 400 = $30

above this it really depends on what kind of target I am looking for and how close I am to the WR. I normally stop at $30 dollar bets no matter how high I get.

Note #1: Do not waste a quality cashable sign up bonus using this (or the Martingale) system.

Note #2: If I had a BR less then $2000, I would not use this

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
MArtingaling actually increases your EV slightly, (you are making fewer, but bigger bets) but it also increases your variance exponentially! So if you can withstand the variance then by all means martingale, reverse martingale, martingale+1, martingale +10, whichever...

[/ QUOTE ]

How does it increase EV by increasing your bet size? If you're a 48-52 dog, if you bet $1 you're losing $.02 per bet, if you bet $1000, you're losing $20 per bet, you still lose 2 cents on the dollar.

It seems that with this system, you're just hoping for the variance to bail you out. I think it's based on the gambler's fallacy.

[fluff]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MArtingaling actually increases your EV slightly, (you are making fewer, but bigger bets) but it also increases your variance exponentially! So if you can withstand the variance then by all means martingale, reverse martingale, martingale+1, martingale +10, whichever...

[/ QUOTE ]

How does it increase EV by increasing your bet size? If you're a 48-52 dog, if you bet $1 you're losing $.02 per bet, if you bet $1000, you're losing $20 per bet, you still lose 2 cents on the dollar.

It seems that with this system, you're just hoping for the variance to bail you out. I think it's based on the gambler's fallacy.

[/ QUOTE ]

For casinos where busting out "forgives" the remainder of your WR (most of them, but not Crypto casinos, for example), betting big does indeed increase your EV. This is because betting big = bigger chance of busting out = smaller WR requirement. However, this is at the cost of higher variance.

One should find a "happy medium" between acceptable variance (depends on your bankroll and your "psychological" bankroll) and WR clearing rate when determining optimal bet size.

[Adam22]

what the hell are you guys talking about and can you give me a link to clue me in?

[KKbluff]

[ QUOTE ]
what the hell are you guys talking about and can you give me a link to clue me in?

[/ QUOTE ]

ever heard of googling the part you dont understand?

[celiboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MArtingaling actually increases your EV slightly, (you are making fewer, but bigger bets) but it also increases your variance exponentially! So if you can withstand the variance then by all means martingale, reverse martingale, martingale+1, martingale +10, whichever...

[/ QUOTE ]

How does it increase EV by increasing your bet size? If you're a 48-52 dog, if you bet $1 you're losing $.02 per bet, if you bet $1000, you're losing $20 per bet, you still lose 2 cents on the dollar.

It seems that with this system, you're just hoping for the variance to bail you out. I think it's based on the gambler's fallacy.

[/ QUOTE ]

For casinos where busting out "forgives" the remainder of your WR (most of them, but not Crypto casinos, for example), betting big does indeed increase your EV. This is because betting big = bigger chance of busting out = smaller WR requirement. However, this is at the cost of higher variance.

One should find a "happy medium" between acceptable variance (depends on your bankroll and your "psychological" bankroll) and WR clearing rate when determining optimal bet size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea the Cryptos do not forgive your WR if you bust out, but why does this matter? In the following month if you meet the previous months' WR you still get last month's bonus

For instance last month I cleared a busted August bonus and the September bonus for $180 in bonus (90 for each month), so you can always "catch up" on the uncleared WR.

[HesseJam]

This can't be right. If you busted, you lost the bonus. So you'll get the 90$ bonus next month but it will be balanced with your loss of $90. Right?

No. you still have to clear last months bonus before you start on this months.

[fluff]

[ QUOTE ]
Yea the Cryptos do not forgive your WR if you bust out, but why does this matter?

[/ QUOTE ]

It matters specifically when answering the question "How does busting out increase EV?". Answer: Because your remaining WR is forgiven. So if your WR is not forgiven, then busting out doesn't increase EV.

[ QUOTE ]
In the following month if you meet the previous months' WR you still get last month's bonus

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not true. If you bust out last month and make another deposit this month (and getting another bonus), after meeting one bonus WR, you get one bonus released. You can call it "last month's bonus" but then you don't get "this month's bonus".

To get two bonuses (and any winnings on top of that) you have to wager both months WR.

[Rudbaeck]

Once you are done with all the really easy bonuses you should start to treat them all as if they were sticky.

Lets start out slow and see if this can be made clear. You have four sites that all offer a bonus of 100% to $250. But the wager requirement is so high, and the lowest house advantage games are not allowed, so you expect to lose atleast $250 back to the house by the time you've cleared this bonus.

The new whore might very well think that this bonus is worthless. But it's not!

Instead you deposit to all four. Now you have $500 in each of four casinos. Now you bet huge until you either reach $2000 or bust on each of the four. On average your reach $2000 on one of them and bust the other three. You only pay house advantage on the site that reached $2000 as you clear it with more modest bets.

So in total you made $750 from combining four 'worthless' bonuses.

You can calculate the optimal target with a nice formula by Izverg: T=2B/3+sqrt(2*B*R)

T is target, B is bonus amount, R is a fraction of your bankroll. For the 'average' risktaker you should use 25% of your total roll as R in the above equation.

You try to reach T or bust. This actually increases EV of all bonuses somewhat, and the EV of many bonuses by alot. And it does huge, amazing wonders for your hourly rate.

Notice that T is the total balance you're supposed to reach. So for low percent sticky bonuses you need a big roll to take advantage of them.