Is this +/- EV?

[jenson]

Hi All,

I addition to your thoughts on this move, I am also interested in calculating the EV for this. Any help is appreciated?

1 table live home game SNG tourney
Buy In $30

Blinds T150 / T300

I'm in the BB with 56 offsuit and T800 after posting BB

Folded to the Button who calls
SB completes

Pot Size now T900

I raise All In from the BB for an additional T800

Let's assume the following:

1. Button calls BB with top 50% of hands
2. SB completes with any two

1. Button calls All In with top 25% of hands
2. SB call All In with top 25% of hands

[USCSigma1097]

Jenson

Eastbay has an analyzer just for this type of analysis. If you want to be a decent SNG player, you're probably going to need to buy it at some point. It's called SNG power tools, and a search of the FAQ located at the top of the first page should find it.

GL at the tables,
Sigma

[Nicholasp27]

it's at snganalyzer-pro.com

[Nicholasp27]

snganalyzer will NOT analyze this scenario...someone completed here...snganalyzer will only do scenarios in which u are first in pot or someone already went all in (or put u all in with their bet)

[Nicholasp27]

to figure out if pushing/folding is +/-ev, follow these steps


1) run chip stacks in icm calculator if you fold
2) run chip stacks in icm calculator if they fold to your push
3) run chip stacks in icm calculator if one of them calls and you win
4) run chip stacks in icm calculator if both of them call you and you win

call those ev values a,b,c,d

a is your baseline

if bp(b)+cp(c)+dp(d) > a, then it's +

for your conditions:
p(b)=.75*.75=.5625
p(c)=.25*X, where X is pokerstove's answer for how 56o does against the range of top25% of hands
p(d)=.0625*Y, where Y is pokerstove's answer for how 56o does against 2 hands that have ranges of top25% of hands

icm calculators:
http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html
http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.p

[zambonidrivr]

IMO, you have waited too long to make a move. You should not be in this spot where you have $800 with the blinds are where theyre at. I used to do the same thing and hope for cards. Get aggressive and play for first earlier. If you bust you bust but waiting this long is -EV all the way.

I just check, see a flop, and push any piece. Otherwise I am pushing the next hand with any 2.

[Nicholasp27]

to take this one step further, you can figure out what % of the time u have to win against this top25% range to make it a +ev push...so then u can know all hands that u can push in this spot...


.5625b+.25xc+.0625yd=a

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, you have waited too long to make a move. You should not be in this spot where you have $800 with the blinds are where theyre at

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, making a move ealier is preferable should that oportunity present itself. But a lot of the time you don't really have an option. I see this situation come up all the time. You shouldn't take the idea of "making a move" too far by pushing any 2 UTG or something similar. Sometimes there are a lot of raisers and UTG is the only chance you get to open the betting.

Sorry to get off topic.

honestly, I completely agree with above poster. I have been in many situations where I hit that <10bb rule and start getting ready to push decent holdings, but opening raises, and multiple limpers will stop me from pushing.

Its hard to freaking find the right spot sometimes.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
2. SB call All In with top 25% of hands

[/ QUOTE ]

getting better than 2:1 closing the action, this is optimistic.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
to figure out if pushing/folding is +/-ev, follow these steps


1) run chip stacks in icm calculator if you fold

[/ QUOTE ]

you're the bb. you're not going to fold. you need to estimate your equity in the pot if you just check. this is another reason that sngpt will be of no use on this one.

[jenson]

Hi All,

Thanks much for your input.

Regarding the EV calculations I have to admit I'm a little confused. /images/graemlins/confused.gif Nicholasp27, thanks for your input thus far. It's been a while since I did any real algebra, so I'm not sure I can take this to the next step with your formulas. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Unfortunately I don't remember their exact chip stacks. It was a live tourney. Both Button and BB had me covered. I would estimate that Button had about T2500 and SB had about T2000.

Does that help in completing the calculations with the pre-defined assumptions?

[Shilly]

Stop and gooooooooooooooooooo

[GtrHtr]

You will need to do some algebra if you want to compute this. You will also need all stack sizes to determine the "value" of your options.

Take your estimated stack sizes and plug them into the ICM calculator in the thread. Run all of the stack sizes for the scenarios listed in Nicholas' original post ensuring that they all total the same amount each time. Save the results. Using pokerstove, find the card equity of your hand against the range you put villain(s) on. Then do the algebra on each scenario.

To the poster that said stop and go, WTF?