Defending BB with low pocket pair simple question

[thesharpie]

Against an EP raise against an unknown, what's the lowest PP you play in the BB?

[somapopper]

66 I guess... but I think I should probably take it up to 88 as I'm not crazy about trying to take the pot away from the ep raiser without making a set or a straight draw.

[Carmine]

I complete with any PP. If you don't hit your set the board and player determine my actions which will be folding on the flop about 70% of the time.

[Nick C]

I wonder about this too.

When I've got 33 in the BB, for instance, and there's an EP raise, part of the reason I'm hoping for at least one cold-caller is that a cold-caller will make my decision easy.

Maybe it should be easy anyway. I'm not sure.

[@bsolute_luck]

is this full ring? standard raising range(AK-J, KQ, AA-88)?

i do 66. more of the deck will hit you for your straight draw as well as both set outs are good. and if the board comes 789T - unless villain has AJ/JJ, your bottom straight card is goot. lower than that, and your set outs are vulnerable to a straight draw if villain has an Ace. but i hate completing simply for set value, so for right now 66 gives me the most opportunity to win back my money and/or suckout.

[crunchy1]

Your post made me think of this thread from March. It's funny looking back on it because back then there was sooo much that I really didn't understand. I was an ass but, this is a great thread. It's also funny because today I'd be playing every time - 3-betting against some opponents, calling against some and leading many flops. Thanks Errant, sfer!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

55 in the BB (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=2002478&an=&page=&vc=1)

[winky51]

Why are you defending your BB with a crappy pair anyways vs an EP raiser?

You get a 11.8% chance to hit a set. What are you going to do when the flop comes QT8, 2 flush no set? He might just be holding AK?

Best case is he has big pair and you hit a set. You make big money

Assume poor players (AK = AK-AJ, KQ, AA = pairs AA=TT)
AK vs 55, paired vs set: 3.8% win 11 SB
(cap flop, opponent calls down)
PF Raiser vs 55, Doesnt matter vs no set: 88.2% lose 1 SB
(you said you would fold, usually they bet flop and turn)
AA vs 55, set vs set: 1.4% lose 15 (assume its capped on flop and turn, called on river)
Preflop raiser vs 55, Suckout vs set: 5% lose 9 SB
(1.9% to 7% depending on flop for rasier)
AK vs 55, no pair/draw vs set: 7.8% win 5
(check, opponent bets, you raise, he calls, you lead turn, he folds)

30 possibilities vs a big pair 27.3%
80 possibilities vs 2 high cards 72.7%

ANY 3.8% x 100.0% +11 = +.418
ANY 82.0% x 100.0% -1 = -.82
AA 1.4% x 27.3% -15 = -.057
ANY 5.0% x 100.0% -9 = -.450
AK 7.8% x 72.7% +5 = +.283

total -0.626 BB per 100 hands
------------------

I took about 45 mins to figure this out. If you saw the opponents hand then it would be positive but no set no bet then your a loser. Since you are folding everytime you miss no matter what they have.

I will call a raise with any pocket pair and continue if the flop is favorable

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
66 I guess... but I think I should probably take it up to 88 as I'm not crazy about trying to take the pot away from the ep raiser without making a set or a straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is 66 really any different from 22 here.

HU, 88 unimproved can be a fine hand. If the pot's multiway then you can start thinking about set value, but for the rest, just get better at player postflop.

[toss]

Another good question is how often do you 3-bet with a small PP against a 20/10/2.

[crunchy1]

Good analysis. However...

-I think that you slightly under estimate the # of bets a good player will win with a set vs. TPTK.

-I think you way under estimate the number of bets that a good player will win unimproved (i.e. you are suggesting that we're always losing 1SB in that situation - if you play decent and have good reads I don't think it's that difficult to make that a +EV situation).

-Some of the other calculations I think can swing a little more favorably towards Hero (assuming he plays better post-flop than EP Villian)

-MOST IMPORTANTLY - all of your extrapolated calculations are done in SBs but your summary calculation shows that we're losing .626BB / 100. This should really be .626SB / 100 (or .313BB / 100).

Swing a couple of your calculations my way and I'm easily turning what you show as a .313BB/100 loser into a +EV play.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
How is 66 really any different from 22 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

see i thought about this as well. my initial post was "what's the difference between pocket pairs? a pair is a pair."

i really think the answer is you have to also play for something other than a set and if you get your set, how strong is it to favor against redraws.

Am i on track here?
You are getting 3.5:1 immediately (the SB, the raise and your BB) but are only 8:1 to hit your set. I play any PP if I think the following situation could occur if I hit a set. You will get another bet on the flop, 2 big bets on the turn after you raise and they call, and i more big bet as a crying call on the river. thats 10.5:1 on your initial call, and nothing to loose if you miss. This type of action is pretty easy coming from an EP raiser with a bigger PP or high cards that hit a pair or two.
Q.
Feedback very welcome.

[winky51]

Your right I meant SB per 100. So used to posting BB per 100.

But this is making the assumptiont of bad players and what the original poster said "no set no bet"

yes if your a good players I am sure a flop of 852 rainbow with 66 under is something you can make profitable since 3/4 of the time said PF raiser will miss.

But then again how profitable is this coin flip?

check raise flop, bet turn, check/call river?
What if the opponent hits?

He misses: 3 SB (PF) + 2 SB (FL) + 2 SB (TU) + 0 SB (RI)= 4 SB
This assumes he has 2 high and misses the flop completely but still is a numbskull to call you down with ace high.

He hits the turn or river: 3 SB (PF) + 2 SB (FL) + 2 SB (TU) then fold to the raise = -4 SB (turn hit)

River hit you lose 2 SB more if he hits because he will bet. Then there will be times he bluffs on the river when the ace hits after you check. Are you calling it then? If you are then you are calling all aces on the river.

There is a reason why you need 2 callers to make small pairs profitable in this situation PF raiser, cold caller, and you in the BB.

believe me I really hope there is a simple way and +EV way to play this hand. I would love to call some EP dude with a small-med pair and have +EV. If I could read if he missed or not thats easy. Online you can't really read people

[winky51]

20/10/2?

Im more like 18/14/2.3

I ain't no mathemitician but I would really love to see all possible outcomes to determine if its possible to defend the BB with a pair.

[winky51]

The problem lies that the other player will suckout on you a certain percentage of the time even when you have a set.

flush draws, straight draws, trips themselves setting up for the large FH or set over set.

Add all this up and it comes out to about 10:1 for a win.

Now compound that with you being out of position and the times the board looks so scary you have to fold when your actually ahead.

Thats what I am debating. There just isnt enough money in the pot.

Flop comes KT8 2 spades and pf raiser is betting his AsJh are you calling here with your 66? even if you do there are 10 cards to improve his hand on the turn that makes you super clobbered. Now a 2 comes, he bets again, are you calling? Lets say you raise the flop and he calls, you bet the turn again out of position? What if he has JJ? Even if he has AJ 10 outs is almost 50/50 for 2 cards.


I think you have to really know your player.

Now what about a flop like 743 and you check raise. Then bet. Many bad players will simply call with JJ or TT all the way down beng scared you have aces. Now you lost a bunch. Maybe vs a good player its possible. But if I see your calling with small pairs a lot in the BB I change my play.

[adios]

66 is alot different than 22 IMO when you consider that a suspected blind stealer has something like Ax in his range of hands, Kxs or even maybe Qxs. A blind stealer with this range of hands will have 2 overcards to your pair of deuces more than he will when you have 66. If the blind stealer pairs his low card, 66 will be ahead more often FWIW.

[winky51]

redraws from 2% to 25%.

a 7% hand is the opponent having top pair, backdoor flush, and backdoor straight.

a 15% redraw is backdoor flush, inside straight.

a 25% is a flush draw

a 13% is gut straight draw

a 22% if the opponent having trips AA6 board with AK vs 66.

So really 1:7.5 on your money is not as good as you think. You need 10:1. If they cap the flop and call down your looking at 11.5:1. Thats if you got them beat.

If you look at a PF raiser and a cold caller then thats 5.5:1 preflop odds. You can easily get 5 more SBs. 2 on the flop 1 turn, 1 river if the cold caller folds. And if you hit a set vs 2 callers its not that much difference on win %. Also if the 2nd player is calling down he is feeding your wallet so let say he calls the flop and turn thats an extra 4 SB (assume you raise the flop) Now were looking at 12-14 SBs won. 5 PF, 4-6 on the flop, 2 on the turn, maybe 2 on the river.

12-14:1 looks more like its worth the 10:1 shot at hitting the set and winning.

[winky51]

Blind stealer is different from the EP raiser.

BUT raises I am at least calling with a pair. Usually I raise.

[@bsolute_luck]

sorry bro. maybe i'm not a math guy, but folding in BB simply because an EP raises: you missing a lot of BBs. playing "no set no bet" thinking when calling to the flop is pretty sad too.

and maybe i'm way off or something but a tight EP raiser, even if we throw in 99 and 88:

non-pair combos: AK(16), AQ(16), AJ(16), KQ(16): 64
paired combos: AA-88(6 each): 42 combos

am i missing something? over 50% of the time, we're up against UI overcards.

[chief444]

All of them.

[winky51]

If I played small pairs in the BB I would not be a "no set no bet" the other guy was claiming that.

BUT look what your against.

half the hands have you at 4:1
the other half are 10:11
and your out of position.

Does not seem like a winning strategy to me. All the books say the same thing. Why get involved with a small pair vs an early raiser from the BB. A good player will bet twice the flop and turn heads up. Are you calling the turn with a 66 with a dangerous board? Do you call the flop if an ace appears, he could have KQ?

So...
42 combos your way behind
29 hands you win by the river. and of these your folding sometimes because of the board.
33 hands you lose by the river.

Wheres the profit? Despite getting 3.5:1 by the river your not.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
Your post made me think of this thread from March. It's funny looking back on it because back then there was sooo much that I really didn't understand. I was an ass but, this is a great thread. It's also funny because today I'd be playing every time - 3-betting against some opponents, calling against some and leading many flops. Thanks Errant, sfer!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

55 in the BB (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=2002478&an=&page=&vc=1)

[/ QUOTE ]

Everybody needs to read this thread. I found CMI's discussion of knowing you are up against AA with 55 very interesting and insightful.

[somapopper]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
66 I guess... but I think I should probably take it up to 88 as I'm not crazy about trying to take the pot away from the ep raiser without making a set or a straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is 66 really any different from 22 here.

HU, 88 unimproved can be a fine hand. If the pot's multiway then you can start thinking about set value, but for the rest, just get better at player postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Biggest thing is that 22 gets counterfited more often than 66.

Additionally, somebody mentioned A's making st8s and when you hit your set with 22, the likleyhood of a backdoor straight draw for the EP raiser increases.

Granted these are small considerations, but I'm not even sure these hands can be turned into +EV against decent opponents.

If you're primarily calling to try to take the pot away from a TAG EP raiser, how many bets do you think you're going to have to put in before you can figure out if he has broadway cards or a big pp that he's not folding? Do you think he's giving up broadways on the flop? When you see an A or a K on the flop you're folding right? How about a Q? Unless he has exactly AK that Q means you're behind again.

As far as I can see, the only way to hope to make money with this call is if you can squeeze about 4 more BBs out of your opponent when you hit the set on the flop. Maybe more, as set over set is gonna happen here more often then we like.

Give me a line that's +EV against his range and not just broadway cards that don't hit on the flop, and I'll happily change my mind, but until then I think it's spewing chips.

[somapopper]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry bro. maybe i'm not a math guy, but folding in BB simply because an EP raises: you missing a lot of BBs. playing "no set no bet" thinking when calling to the flop is pretty sad too.

and maybe i'm way off or something but a tight EP raiser, even if we throw in 99 and 88:

non-pair combos: AK(16), AQ(16), AJ(16), KQ(16): 64
paired combos: AA-88(6 each): 42 combos

am i missing something? over 50% of the time, we're up against UI overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say a truly tight EP raiser's range is AA-JJ (30) AK, AQ (32) so it's a little closer (throw in AJs, KQs, and 1010 if you like). Plus, an A,K, or Q will hit the flop ~ 50% of the time. I think it's pretty clear you would be totally mistaken to call if you knew you weren't going to hit a set. The question is the 50% of the time you could play without the set, can you turn enough of a profit on the hands that he has broadway cards, compared to the amount of money you're going to lose when he has a bigger pp. Remember his broadway cards have 8 outs, raiser is basically never folding before the turn, and never folding if he hits his outs, and never folding his big pocket pair to your BB call.

If I tell you you have to play 33 on a 875 rainbow board for the rest of your life out of position. And then I tell you I will flip a coin, tails you're playing against KK, heads you're playing against AQ, are you even considering playing poker ever again?

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your post made me think of this thread from March. It's funny looking back on it because back then there was sooo much that I really didn't understand. I was an ass but, this is a great thread. It's also funny because today I'd be playing every time - 3-betting against some opponents, calling against some and leading many flops. Thanks Errant, sfer!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

55 in the BB (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=2002478&an=&page=&vc=1)

[/ QUOTE ]

Everybody needs to read this thread. I found CMI's discussion of knowing you are up against AA with 55 very interesting and insightful.

[/ QUOTE ]

great link there. they say much better what i was trying to say.

[lufbradolly]

77 now i'm gonna read the replies. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif