($27) Yicky KK hand

[durron597]

Early no read.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t2060)
CO (t635)
Button (t1230)
SB (t1060)
BB (t950)
UTG (t2290)
UTG+1 (t1400)
Hero (t1185)
MP2 (t2690)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, MP2 calls t100, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t100, SB calls t85, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t430) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, MP2 folds, Button calls t300, SB folds.

Turn: (t1030) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t830 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

[The_Missile]

Folds in disgust. Chances are he hit a flush, or at least that's my read. Maybe Ax /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or a set.

[Manque]

I dunno. I think a lot of people who make a big hand on the turn love to slowplay it. Why would he want to take the pot down on the turn ,if he made a big hand, after you checked? Your hand may still be good. I figured he would reraise you on the flop with pocket jacks. I'll go out on a limb and say he's got A-J

[gumpzilla]

I'd call here, I think. The problem is that checking that turn after the big flop bet is really asking to have the pot taken away from you by 99, TT or QQ, all of which are pretty realistic hands. I think Ad with a 3, 4 or 5 plays this way frequently at this level, and I think a flush probably bets smaller or waits another street to let you fire again given your show of flop strength. So call.

[durron597]

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The problem is that checking that turn after the big flop bet is really asking to have the pot taken away from you by 99, TT or QQ, all of which are pretty realistic hands.

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And what's the alternative, push? Then he just folds all those hands except maybe QQ. Checking is clearly correct because he will bet a lot of PPs that he would fold if I am the one doing the pushing. The only reason not to check is that I give a free card to a naked A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but I don't see a lot of naked A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif hands that call the flop.

So if I check w/the intention of calling (or raising), that is CLEARLY superior (IMO) to pushing myself. The question is, do I check fold.

How often do you give credit to him calling the flop with a flush draw? Maybe he has like the A, 2, 6 or 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif with another /images/graemlins/diamond.gif giving him plenty of outs to call the flop?

[gumpzilla]

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So if I check w/the intention of calling (or raising), that is CLEARLY superior (IMO) to pushing myself. The question is, do I check fold.

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The only thing is if you're giving a free card to a diamond, but this isn't a big concern, so I prefer check-calling to pushing as well. My point was just that you shouldn't fold.

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How often do you give credit to him calling the flop with a flush draw? Maybe he has like the A, 2, 6 or 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif with another /images/graemlins/diamond.gif giving him plenty of outs to call the flop?

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Hard to say. There are certain opponents that I run into occasionally who will never fold a flush draw, and a flush draw and two overs will call basically every time here. So it's certainly very believable that you could be up against the flush. That said, I think you could be up against a pretty wide variety of overpairs (with or without diamond) and other stuff, and I probably call.

[KenProspero]

My 2c.

With this betting pattern, what hands could he have? Do you think that it's correct for him to call your earlier bet with a flush draw? If not, why do you think he'd slow play it when he actually hit a flush?

I think your possibilities here are either he actually has a flush, or he has some kind of hand (probably a lower pair) and is using the scare card on the turn to try get rid of you. Based on the information given, I don't think there's any way to read this.

Given the pot odds, I probably swallow hard and call. I expect to see the flush a lot of the time, but I'll win enough to make it +ev in the long run.

[wuwei]

With that many opponents and our stack size, I often push this flop. You can get calls from smaller overpairs, flush draws, etc., and if you don't you've taken down a nice pot.

[The Yugoslavian]

I like pushing the turn. You know I'm all about inducing bets/bluffs from weaker hands in order to call for value but IMO the pot is too big now to give a free card to some random hand with a diamond in it or a naked A.

Lots of those pps will call ur turn push anyway (I mean, how will they all of a sudden give credit to a J?). The $27s are plenty soft here that you can't give the villian credit for a set or a str8 or whatever just b/c he called ur flop bet (which I like btw). Frankly, I think you push any turn here.

If you want to check to induce worse hands to go allin, then you have to call.

I'm not folding KK here in any event (unless it's checked thru the turn and another diamond comes).

Yugoslav

[wuwei]

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I like pushing the turn. You know I'm all about inducing bets/bluffs from weaker hands in order to call for value but IMO the pot is too big now to give a free card to some random hand with a diamond in it or a naked A.

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I agree with this as well.

[durron597]

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With that many opponents and our stack size, I often push this flop. You can get calls from smaller overpairs, flush draws, etc., and if you don't you've taken down a nice pot.

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I definitely agree that it's +EV to push the flop, but I think that it's probably more +EV to bet less.

But I would definitely be interested in hearing more thoughts on this.

Durron, I think you asked the right question and just need to calculate the right answer. (I think checking is right on the turn of put in a blocking bet, IF your opponent is known to attack weak players--which I am not accusing you of but alas your turn check could suggest). So you were right when asking what are my CHANCES of calling and winning vs calling and losing vs folding.

You have to put your opponent on a range of hands and then see if the pot is offering you the odds. Unfortunately, I suck and do not have a basic answer of what the pot should be offering you to call based on the aggresiveness of different opponents. But I also have been in similar situations and will calculate some answers and get back to you.

Given the situation it's TOUGH. Looking at preflop action, what do you put your opponents on? The villian called a 3x BB size opening bet with 3 players behing him to act. I know it's early and there are some donks out there, but I tend to still put him on a tight to mid-loosed range (maybe 88+, AJorAQ+). The small blind wasn't really priced into call but range could be looser (I won't speculate because it really didn't come up.)

I think you played the flop perfectly. I like leading out, there's a good chance if the villian had overs that he would reraise you and you could put him all in. Plus you can't give a free card. Now the villian called your pot size bet with a player still to act behind him, this is tempered by the fact that the SB checked. But I still think that suggests that he has a hand, but he definitly wasn't given the odds to call with a flush draw... Unless, he had AKs or AQs of diamonds. Now he would have a flush draw plus overs which could make a call reasonable. Now if he had over-cards, would he put in a raise. I think if he had TT or JJ definitly. He has to find out where he is and protect against an overcard. 88-99 I might just call in this situation and see what the original better does on the turn, so the villian doesn't have to risk half his chip stack. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the villian put in a raise with 88-99 either. The only other option is that the villian is slow playing a set but would he call a raise on the flop with a pocket pair of 5,4,3. And would he slow play that on the flop with a flush draw out?

The turn. I would check the turn to. But that third flush has to look as scary to him as it does to you. If you were in the villian shoes and didn't hit the flush draw would you put someone all-in? And if you did hit your flush draw, would you put someone all-in that you think could be on a busted or marginal hand? I dought it, but it is the twenties (is that what a $27 is?) and you never know (by the way that's the level I play at).

It looks alot to me like an AKor AQ or AJ suited with the Ace as a diamond, but not a flush. And maybe JJ for a set. (I think KK or QQ would have raised pre-flop and/or the flop, and AA would have raised the flop.)

So let's do the calculations. So let's say that 20% of the time he is not a busted hand or lower pair. 50% of the time he has a flush. And 30% of the time he is on a over-cards with a flush draw semi-bluff. (Obviously, I guesstimated all these numbers, so feel free to disagree.) So, given these asumptions, I'd say that you are 60-40 to win the hand (since the flush draw or A on the river would come in sometimes). So you are a 3-2 dog, but the pot is offering you 1030-785 which is not quite 3-2 (but it's definitly close!)

Wow, this is a tough call. I guess if you tweaked the range of your opponent a little bit, it could be an easy call or fold one way or the other. Given the above assumptions, I guess I would fold because it's early in the tournament. And that at the 20s, player play poorly on the bubble. But if you play a monster stack well, then I guess a call is good as well.

Good question. I hope it worked out for you whichever way you played it. I play the 20s at pokerroom which I think you used to as well. I hope to see you back there sometime, just not at my table! GL.

Just to respond to Yugo. I don't think pushing the turn is correct. Sure you can get some donks calling off worst hands. But I wouldn't call that inducing a bluff. I would call that a dumb donk. If you get called pushing the turn, then that has to be a good percentage of the time that you are beat. Either by a made flush or a poorly played AA or JJ (although I would raise the flop with either of those hands.)

I understand that you have invested a bunch of chips into the pot. But does that necessitate putting in the rest when a scare card comes on the turn? To me that looks like just what it is. A scared higher pocket pair possibly with a back-door flush draw. If I got that beat then I'm calling. If I don't then I fold. The villian has position and that scare card has to look as scary to you as to him. Granted a big OVER bet on the turn at the 20s could look like a made hand as well, but it's not going to get a set of JJ or AA to fold (or maybe for that matter a poorly played QQ but still that chances are unlikely.) I think an all in bet is just asking for a better hand to call and a worst hand to fold.

On the other hand, a check could induce a bluff. Unfortunately, the villian went all-in. And all I have to say to that is read my previous post. Not that the previous post is very noteworth or right for that matter. But I couldn't possibly retype it. GL.

Sorry for three posts in a row.

I think that pushing on the flop is ok as well. For two reasons, if the flop came rainbow then over-cards under you would call. But especially with a flush draw on board, your bet reaks of a flush draw with over cards ready to gamble.

[adanthar]

My default play is to push now because I'm not folding, AJ calls anyway, and free cards on this board suck.

If I check, it's because I autocall the turn push I have to be relatively sure is coming up.

[wuwei]

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I definitely agree that it's +EV to push the flop, but I think that it's probably more +EV to bet less.

But I would definitely be interested in hearing more thoughts on this.

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I would agree with that. I'm not pushing this flop every time, of course, but its a nice move with which to mix up your play.

One reason I don't mind pushing the flop is that I'm pretty much never getting away from it. Perhaps if I bet, was min raised, and then one or two went all in after that I'd have to consider it. But outside of that...

If our stack was deeper, I wouldn't push. But we're on the high end of the range where a pottish bet on the flop means we can't get away on the turn even if it's ugly like this one. Can you really limit his hands enough without a read to check/fold the turn? I can't this early in a PS 27. And there's a lot of cards in that deck that look ugly when they come on the turn.

I think we have the best hand, but I'm a bit concerned about being overwhelmed by end of the hand with all the draws out there. Pushing will limit this. If we only had one pf caller, I wouldn't consider it.

Finally, pushing looks pretty weak. I'm never suprised when I get called by 88, a flush draw, etc.

Damn You Adanther. You make me rethink everything. By the way I thought your primer on how to play AK was great. Hope to see more of it.

I guess pushing the turn could be alright. But what hand range of the vilians, outside of AJ calls? And if it's only AJ would you have called the flop unless it had a flush potential whether back door or not? IMO, the villian would have to be a real big DONK to do that. I guess an all-in move on the turn ruins the odds for an AK or AQ with a back-door flush. But is that worth it, given the range of hands that beat us? I'm not sure, but I'll play with some numbers. GL.

[durron597]

Great post. First I want to say this:

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Not that the previous post is very noteworth or right for that matter.

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When you put that much time and thought into a post, it's a good post whether your logic is right or wrong.

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IF your opponent is known to attack weak players

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As I said in the OP, early so no read.

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So you were right when asking what are my CHANCES of calling and winning vs calling and losing vs folding.

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Really I think the call on the turn is automatic. I left it out in an attempt to make the hand more interesting for the readers. Yugo is correct in the sense that pushing the turn or check-calling the turn is more interesting. Though I still disagree with his logic.

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Looking at preflop action, what do you put your opponents on? The villian called a 3x BB size opening bet with 3 players behing him to act. I know it's early and there are some donks out there, but I tend to still put him on a tight to mid-loosed range (maybe 88+, AJorAQ+). The small blind wasn't really priced into call but range could be looser (I won't speculate because it really didn't come up.)

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This is the problem. How tight is his preflop range? A flush draw on the flop is much less likely with a tight caller than a loose caller.

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I think you played the flop perfectly. I like leading out, there's a good chance if the villian had overs that he would reraise you and you could put him all in. Plus you can't give a free card.

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I think leading out is obvious. But what's not obvious is the bet amount. wuwei made a good argument for just pushing now.

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Now the villian called your pot size bet with a player still to act behind him, this is tempered by the fact that the SB checked.

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My bet was only 3/4 pot. I think it should have been more, and it would have been more if I had a larger stack, because anybody with the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and another /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is a fool to fold for only 300 chips because of the gutshot and overcard.

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I dought it, but it is the twenties (is that what a $27 is?) and you never know (by the way that's the level I play at).

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Stars has $15+$1 and $25+$2 turbo sngs. That's what this was.

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It looks alot to me like an AKor AQ or AJ suited with the Ace as a diamond, but not a flush. And maybe JJ for a set. (I think KK or QQ would have raised pre-flop and/or the flop, and AA would have raised the flop.)

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What about TT/99/88/maybe 77?

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Wow, this is a tough call.

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I really think this comes down to, do I make more from bets by worse hands when I check than I lose by giving free cards to lone diamonds? With my stack and the size of the pot and his likely hand range I really have to call his bet...

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1030-785 which is not quite 3-2

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Actually 1030 is just the dead money, the pot is laying me more like 1815-785 when you include his push.