Van Strummer
10-02-2005, 06:32 PM
After all the posts by players running bad/breaking even for 30-40 tournaments and positing I just wanted to post a good illustration of some real variance (at least thats what I hope it is.)
I have been playing STTs for about 18 months. And I have played about 5500 tournaments in this span, starting out in the 11s and moving up to the 55s. I have kept records for the 4500 I have played in the 22s, 33s and 55s.
My ROI has been in the 15-20% range in the 22s and 33s. My results have always been very stable and I don`t even think I have had a 20 buyin downswing before, nor a really big upswing. All my results look pretty much like this (which are the last 1000 tourneys I played before this really swingy period started):
ROI: 19,1%
ITM: 38,3%
Bubble +/-: -1,1%
http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/4656/good8rc.th.jpg (http://img369.imageshack.us/my.php?image=good8rc.jpg)
In July I decided to test out the 55s and started out by making about 60 buyins in 150 tourneys. After this I broke even for the next 450:
ROI: 7%
ITM: 35,2%
Bubble +/-: -0,1%
http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/1265/553lx.th.jpg (http://img369.imageshack.us/my.php?image=553lx.jpg)
After this I decided to try working on my 8-tabeling skills in the 33s (I had been 6 tabeling up to this point). Ran up 15 buyins in my first session and felt great. Then went into a 60 buyin downswing (cutting back down to 6 tabeling midways) and when I was totally fed up on SNGs and about to quit everything I hit a major heater winning 75 buyins in 120 tournaments. I ran average for the next 250 before finishing the set of 1000 with another 30+ buyin downswing (still counting) today.
ROI: 2,3%
ITM: 34,4%
Bubble +/-: -6,1%
http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/5264/bad9lc.th.jpg (http://img369.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bad9lc.jpg)
What strikes me the most is the lack of 1sts and the bubble +/- of: -6,1% (this was actually over 8% at the 500 mark). This is especially strange because while analyzing my game most of the mistakes I found were me being too aggressive 5 and 6 handed. I have actually decreased my 5th and 6th place finishes. If anyone else have experienced this or an extreme bubble +/- I would really like to hear from you.
I still believe (especially after my last downswing) that something has to be wrong with my game, but I am not able to find it, nor has my friends who have looked through some of my hand histories. I have very little confidence in my game right now and will probably take a long break before starting over fresh with another 1000.
I have been playing STTs for about 18 months. And I have played about 5500 tournaments in this span, starting out in the 11s and moving up to the 55s. I have kept records for the 4500 I have played in the 22s, 33s and 55s.
My ROI has been in the 15-20% range in the 22s and 33s. My results have always been very stable and I don`t even think I have had a 20 buyin downswing before, nor a really big upswing. All my results look pretty much like this (which are the last 1000 tourneys I played before this really swingy period started):
ROI: 19,1%
ITM: 38,3%
Bubble +/-: -1,1%
http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/4656/good8rc.th.jpg (http://img369.imageshack.us/my.php?image=good8rc.jpg)
In July I decided to test out the 55s and started out by making about 60 buyins in 150 tourneys. After this I broke even for the next 450:
ROI: 7%
ITM: 35,2%
Bubble +/-: -0,1%
http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/1265/553lx.th.jpg (http://img369.imageshack.us/my.php?image=553lx.jpg)
After this I decided to try working on my 8-tabeling skills in the 33s (I had been 6 tabeling up to this point). Ran up 15 buyins in my first session and felt great. Then went into a 60 buyin downswing (cutting back down to 6 tabeling midways) and when I was totally fed up on SNGs and about to quit everything I hit a major heater winning 75 buyins in 120 tournaments. I ran average for the next 250 before finishing the set of 1000 with another 30+ buyin downswing (still counting) today.
ROI: 2,3%
ITM: 34,4%
Bubble +/-: -6,1%
http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/5264/bad9lc.th.jpg (http://img369.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bad9lc.jpg)
What strikes me the most is the lack of 1sts and the bubble +/- of: -6,1% (this was actually over 8% at the 500 mark). This is especially strange because while analyzing my game most of the mistakes I found were me being too aggressive 5 and 6 handed. I have actually decreased my 5th and 6th place finishes. If anyone else have experienced this or an extreme bubble +/- I would really like to hear from you.
I still believe (especially after my last downswing) that something has to be wrong with my game, but I am not able to find it, nor has my friends who have looked through some of my hand histories. I have very little confidence in my game right now and will probably take a long break before starting over fresh with another 1000.