Another tough AI call decision early

[sirio11]

100k guaranteed Paradise. You have Kd8c in the BB with a 1500 stack. Blinds 15-30, UTG calls, LB completes, you check.

Flop: Td8d3d

You bet 70 into the 90 pot and UTG goes all in, he covers you.

Call or fold?

[C-Dog]

I dont see why this one is so tough? Looks like an instamuck to me.

C-Dog

[Exitonly]

pair and 2nd nut flush draw isn't instamuch... but i think it is a muck... if you were the one pushing it'd be better.. w/ fold equity and such.

[bobbycharles]

Fold.
I put him on AdX with the X possibly a pair. Second guess is T8 off and he's trying to bet you off a flush draw.

[Crispy]

I know you flopped a very attractive hand. But think about what villan might be doing this with. Lets say he does this with the A of diamond, that means ur drawing dead to those d outs. He could be doing this with a 10, set, two pair but no D of which you have a 30% to fill up. I think that you can find a better spot to try and double up. If you had the Ad then maybe I could see calling here.

[C-Dog]

The pot is really tiny, and you could be drawing completely dead. I can't ever see calling here, but most of you are better tourney players than I am. I would love to hear some more reasoning for making a call here.


C-Dog

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see why this one is so tough? Looks like an instamuck to me.

C-Dog

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have AsAc instead of the Kd8c, you call? or it's an instamuck also?

[Crispy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont see why this one is so tough? Looks like an instamuck to me.

C-Dog

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have AsAc instead of the Kd8c, you call? or it's an instamuck also?

[/ QUOTE ]

Instamuck. Call if you have AdAc.

[C-Dog]

I am not sure I would call with the off Aces. But its closer for me. With the Aces, there is an OK chance I am ahead, and that he is pushing with a T or a Flush draw. I cant see being ahead here, but does the draw make you a favorite over a top pair type hand?

C-Dog

[Exitonly]

That's enough w/ the instamucking... hands recquire some thought.. i don't think anyn of those situations are that clear...

even w/ AA no diamond, i might be calling there, you're 30% vs a semibluffed flush draw.

[C-Dog]

Maybe not instamuck, but pretty damn quickly for me at least.

C-Dog

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont see why this one is so tough? Looks like an instamuck to me.

C-Dog

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have AsAc instead of the Kd8c, you call? or it's an instamuck also?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have raised more pf, but yes, I'd muck it with that flop and that much of a reraise. I couldn't think of a single head besides a bluff or a semi bluff that I am ahead of here. I can get rid of aces if the flop looks like a loser for me, I'm never married to a hand.

My guess is he either has the ace of diamonds and a pair, or he has 2 low diamonds and wants to end the hand right here.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
there is an OK chance I am ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

what's your definition of being ahead? If you are 54% to win in the flop, are you ahead?

You realize that in this flop Kd8c is a better hand than AcAs, right?

[Crispy]

[ QUOTE ]
That's enough w/ the instamucking... hands recquire some thought.. i don't think anyn of those situations are that clear...

even w/ AA no diamond, i might be calling there, you're 30% vs a semibluffed flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, this is true you are 30% against a semibluffed flushdraw. BUt this early, do you really think the chances of him being on a semibluffed flush draw are that good? I could possibly seem him doing this withAd and pair on the board, or set, two pair. But against any of those hands with Kd8c you are set up to lose imo. I think that in the later levels of a tournament I could see a call here, but this early and without any good reads I think we can safely fold here and look to find a better spot.

[arcticfox]

I think you've got to fold this, your best hope is he has top pair non diamond kicker which you are favourite over, or he has Ad and a kicker worse than an 8. You are a marginal dog to a hand like AdJs and a huge dog to a set, 2 pair or made baby flush. I always think bad players push good hands that are scared of being drawn out by the flush. I don't see him pushing with a bluff given how small the pot is, he has something and if he plays this badly you will find better spots to get his chips than a likely coinflip at best.

[nath]

This is a bizarre betting sequence. UTG limps then goes all in for at least 10x the pot?
My initial instinct is that he has AA, probably with the Ad, and is trying to be all tricky and clever, enamored with his own play. "I limped aces preflop and got someone to bet! Now I have a flush draw! All in!"

I realize that doesn't help you put him on a range, but it's such a donk way to bet the hand that I assume he's a donk and would play like this.

I'd muck because I'm not finding a hand he has that makes this better than a marginal gamble, and it could be quite a bit worse.

[C-Dog]

It would depend on his holding which hand is better. I am not sure I would rather have middle pair and 1 card flush draw vs an overpair against someone willing to make a ridiculous push here. I think both are folds though. I would not be surprised at his move by a lot of TP hands AT or KT maybe.

C-Dog

[sirio11]

One more thing on the hand, he instantly went all in, a online tell to consider here.

[arcticfox]

OK, an instant all-in makes the nuts more likely. Maybe its better to fold and wait to stack this donkey later, but I still think it is a very unusual way of playing AA or KK and its unlikey that somone with less than QQ calls him. Its over a 100-1 shot that you have either of those 2 hands when he has AA so thats why I think a lower pocket pair is more likely, but the instant all-in tells you that he loves his hand, but he may love AK, JJ and TT too!

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, an instant all-in makes the nuts more likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I think when people flop the nuts, usually are kind of surprised and take some seconds to make their move.

[arcticfox]

You have a lot more hours online than me so maybe my read is wrong but I've found that an instant raise is usually a very strong hand where-as a long pause shows weakness, apart from players who know this and deliberately do the opposite! Do you think an instant all-in as a sign of weakness then?

[sirio11]

In this case, my online read was, this guy has AA and it's afraid.

[arcticfox]

OK, but that was my sense - you are a dog to anyone who moves all-in instantly given your hand, even if a very marginal dog to AA without a diamond!

[adanthar]

It'd be an instamuck with AsAc, and I'm folding this too after a bit of thought, but I'd call either with the Ad.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
In this case, my online read was, this guy has AA and it's afraid.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about what I thought-- problem is you don't know whether or not it includes Ad. But even if it doesn't, it's still a very close gamble.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Td 8d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Kd 493 49.80 497 50.20 0 0.00 0.498
As Ac 497 50.20 493 49.80 0 0.00 0.502

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Td 8d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Kd 142 14.34 848 85.66 0 0.00 0.143
As Ad 848 85.66 142 14.34 0 0.00 0.857

And this is where I start thinking "don't take close gambles for lots of chips very early on" and such-- especially since the possibility of his Ad would make it not close at all.

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
You realize that in this flop Kd8c is a better hand than AcAs, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm I have Kd8c being 49.8%

So, if your definition of "better hand" means you've been winning lots of coinflips lately, then I'm all for it.[/sacrasm]

Kd8c is a hand I am raising with here, not calling a raise. Instamuckification.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
I have Kd8c being 49.8%


[/ QUOTE ]

you're right, I just considered the 14 outs at the time in the table.

i think it depends on the player... If someone has the nuts he usually wants to extract the most amount of money out of you, or is thinking that at least. So one, he has to think about how to do this such as raising a little on the flop, flat calling, or going all in right away. Nobody ever goes all in on the flop w/ the nuts because they want to get paid off. They'd prob just do a mini raise or flat call and try and get you to commit more chips on the turn. As for tells when someone makes an instant bet/raise its because they aren't thinking. Their mind is set on one play and its just reaction. I see a lot of fast betting representing bluffs because they know its the only way they can win the pot. However, if its a bad player he may see it as the best hand and just shove in his chips not thinking about extracting value but I doubt thats the case. So my first reaction is that he has a hand that doesn't want action such as the AA wo/ a diamond or a baby flush, two pair or set therefore having no flush draw himself and just wanting to drag the pot. Therefore, I would be pretty confident that you have the 14 outs you think you have, thus being even money with the exception of a set or T8. Or he could be on a naked flush draw with the A of diamonds and you'd be a substantial favorite such as AK. Then based on what you know of the player assign some percentages on what you think that person will have and act. If you don't know your player well enough to give an educated guess I think the decision on calling or folding depends on the stage of the tournament and how weak/strong your table is etc... If the table is strong it could be a great opportunity to double up. Since its early I would probably pass not because your getting bad value but because i hope i can get my money in better.