Fold top pair nines to TAG's turn raise? Prty 20/40

[Benjamin]

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif, A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 4 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

- MP1 is tight and not terribly aggressive preflop at 17/6 and with pretty high aggression postflop. I don't know him real well, but he looks like a winner in the full ring from what I've seen. SB is terrible loose passive 66/6.

Flop: (3 SB) 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, SB folds, Hero????

Comments on any street welcome, but I'm most interested in the turn.

B.

[mscags]

Looks to me like you're beaten here. Your best bet is probably folding, bc I would imagine you're behind to some type of two pair. Not sure if the math warrants taking one off or not. If you think he has something like bottom two or middle two a call is in order to try and suck out, but I think you have to fold the river UI, however if he has 89 95 you're in trouble. Not sure what the math needs to be to warrant taking one off here. Maybe someone can whip it up real quick.

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks to me like you're beaten here. Your best bet is probably folding, bc I would imagine you're behind to some type of two pair. Not sure if the math warrants taking one off or not. If you think he has something like bottom two or middle two a call is in order to try and suck out, but I think you have to fold the river UI, however if he has 89 95 you're in trouble. Not sure what the math needs to be to warrant taking one off here. Maybe someone can whip it up real quick.

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy is tight, there is no way he is playing 52 or 85. If he has 2 pair, it's 89, against which I have 3 outs and have to fold. Other likely hands are, I think, a set of 5's (though not too likely he'd limp fives first in from mid), 9's, possibly 8's (though less likely given flop action), an over pair (what it felt like to me ... he doesn't raise a lot preflop, so limping TT or JJ would fit, as well as AA or maybe KK going for a limp reraise). Hands I beat that he could have, I dunno, possibly a suited 9 like T9 he was overplaying? Maybe overplaying A5s w/ flush draw and middle pair?

B.

[elmo]

I don't make this fold. Your hand is good here a ton. I see him on the flush draw with 2 overs alot of the time, maybe even both draws with something like jts. 9Ts is certainly a possibility. If you're losing, I'd expect to see 88. Of course, I never really fold.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't make this fold. Your hand is good here a ton. I see him on the flush draw with 2 overs alot of the time, maybe even both draws with something like jts. 9Ts is certainly a possibility. If you're losing, I'd expect to see 88. Of course, I never really fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
This statement is the best reply on this thread. On this board, there are many hands a tag would raise the turn on that A9 is ahead of. To name a few hands:97s, JhTh,flush draw,flush draw/pair. If a passive player raised you on the turn then folding is ok. But against a good player getting 9-2 to call down is good enough odds to continue especially since you may have the best hand, and even if the villain has an over pair you are getting the correct odds(9-1) to draw against him unless he has precisely AA. So my advice is Call down.

[Benjamin]

On this board, there are many hands a tag would raise the turn on that A9 is ahead of. To name a few hands:97s, JhTh,flush draw,flush draw/pair.

I don't think a 17/6 type TAG is open limping 97s from MP1, and do you really think he's putting in that turn raise with overs and a flush draw after that flop action? I guess sometimes yes, especially JhTh picking up the open-ender.

This is one I would have routinely called down in the past but I'm trying to find spots to fold when I think I'm definitely beat and don't have odds to draw. Your point about having correct odds to draw vs an overpair is good, though, then if you get to the river and it's a non-heart I guess you have to see showdown.

B.

[NLSoldier]

It would take a hell of a read for me to fold this.

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
It would take a hell of a read for me to fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the input, NLSoldier. I guess I swung a bit too much to the weak tight on this hand, cause I folded and don't know what the guy had. Running bad can sure mess with your game.

B.

[tongni]

The presence of the third player makes it likely you are beaten. I would fold, what does he have, JT of hearts? Nah. However, some percentage of the time I will checkraise the turn here, if I feel he's going to bet again.

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
On this board, there are many hands a tag would raise the turn on that A9 is ahead of. To name a few hands:97s, JhTh,flush draw,flush draw/pair.

I don't think a 17/6 type TAG is open limping 97s from MP1, and do you really think he's putting in that turn raise with overs and a flush draw after that flop action? I guess sometimes yes, especially JhTh picking up the open-ender.

This is one I would have routinely called down in the past but I'm trying to find spots to fold when I think I'm definitely beat and don't have odds to draw. Your point about having correct odds to draw vs an overpair is good, though, then if you get to the river and it's a non-heart I guess you have to see showdown.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ben, I agree with alot of your sentiments here. What I can't determine is if TAG has a tricky bone in his body or how truly aggressive postflop he is. You mention he is pretty aggressive postflop, but exactly what does that mean in respect to this player?

Also if the table has been relatively tight with alot of folding (seems passive at least based on this single hand, which is pretty meaningless), is there any chance he limped with a strong hand (i.e. some overpair to the board). Although, for a TAG, I can only see him doing this with AA or KK if and only if the table has been tight and he hasn't been getting much value out of his big hands, whereas here he might be able to limp re-raise or might induce an ISO raise from a weaker hand.

When I think of a 17/6 TAG, I think he is raising most bway overs PF (especially when opening). If those behind him are relatively loose, I can see him open limping with small pockets (say 22-66) or a hand like JTs or 89s (but only if he is reasonably confident this will be quite multiway.)

With that said, some players simply cannot let go of small pockets PF, which makes me believe based on the action he may have flopped a set (22/55). I don't see him necessarily raising JTs on the flop with nothing but a backdoor draw and overs (unless he has JhTh). Even with JTs, why would he want to raise out SB unless he was going for a free river look and reasonably confident SB was tight or trash and often not coming along without a strong draw or strong hand. Something tells me he is trying to push the SB out, and that cold call by SB on the flop would be concerning for a set, so he waits to pop the turn and make it two cold more back to the SB. If he was on the draw (again a TAG), I don't see him pulling a smooth call of your flop 3-bet and popping the turn without a solid hand. This is all dependent upon his post flop aggression though and what exactly "pretty high aggression" really means. Is he at 1.*-2.* postflop aggression or higher? Is he really raising a flush draw here and risking getting 3-bet by a better hand while also pushing out SBs value by just calling the turn knowing he still needs improvement? Does he think you are capable of folding to turn raises, have you shown this kind of play in the recent past that would make him believe a semi-bluff will push you and SB off?

Alot of factors here, and while I probably call down more hands than I should, something tells me you are behind here. The only hands I can see him limping with here that you are ahead of right now are JTs, and to be honest this would be excellent play but JTs but the only hand that adds up is JhTh (so you are narrowing down to 1 hand that you are ahead of, but one that also has a great redraw against you). You are dead to 55/22 and thin against 89s (esp if hearts).

The question is what do you have him on, and what are your intentions on betting the turn. Also how does SB fit into this equation? Being that he folded the turn to the raise decreases the chances he was on the heart or straight draw, but being that he called the flop 2 cold should factor into your turn strategy. I like betting the turn, but TAGs raise puts you in a difficult spot. It simply comes down to how often he is capable of raising this turn to get you to fold a better hand and shutting out SB vs how many times he is ahead and raising to protect his hand (possibly from that heart or now straight draw). Factor in this is a 9 handed game, I just think you are behind here more than you are ahead and if you are lucky you are drawing to 5 outs (of which only 4 are truly clean, i.e. non-heart, or facing a healthy redraw).

What was your feeling at the time? I wouldn't fault you for calling down, but I also think this is a spot where you can let go. You are getting 9:1 on your turn call (after getting raised) with a possible 4 clean outs (possibly 5 if MP played a tricky overpair, hopefully not AA) and marginal chance (IMO) that you are ahead. I can't fault you for finding a fold there. If MP made a great play with the one hand I can see him playing this way that I am currently ahead of, so be it. Great hand, and well played on his part. I just think more often than not, you are going to showdown a loser based on the action and the player (unless he is insanely aggressive postflop or somehow feels he can run over you, which is who other consideration).

Interested in seeing the results...

[Benjamin]

Hey AviD, thanks for your thoughts. Dang it, I had an extensive reply typed out that got lost in cyberspace. Short version is that the guy was high 1.x, low 2.x on aggression on postflop streets if I recall correctly, and I don't have a more detailed read. I assume he knows how to bluff and semibluff, but like you I don't see him pulling this line w/ much else than JhTh as a semibluff. I do think he could limp an overpair ... 6% PFR is pretty low, so he must limp some pretty strong hands I could see him limping TT there, maybe even JJ, and also AA for a limp reraise attempt. When he limped he could expect other limpers behind him or a raise behind him from the way the table had been playing, everyone folding was unusual.

I decided he was most likely on an overpair or better, by a pretty big margin, and I folded to the turn raise, so I don't have any results beyond that to report. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

B.

[veganmav]

[ QUOTE ]

I decided he was most likely on an overpair or better, by a pretty big margin, and I folded to the turn raise, so I don't have any results beyond that to report. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

B.

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I agree that he's probably behind, but what makes you think that villan has an overpair? Villan is first in from MP I would assume he's raising at least AA-JJ. TT and 99 are likely though I guess. Anyway without a better read, just going on this guys stats, I'd say that villan has 98s most of the time and another good portion of the time TT/99. The only drawing hand that is likely in my opinion is JTh. A better read on villan would help a lot in this laydown. If villan is tricky and thinking, I'd be more apt to call down in this spot.