A call drawing two on the third draw hand.

[timprov]

I folded, but I'm not sure it was a good fold. Anyone call here, given the sizable pot and dead cards? I was certainly going to call 1. s has no concept of hand values, and M isn't very good either.

Hand at Yakima ($10/$20 Triple Draw 2-7)
Powered by UltimateBet

timprov is at seat 1 with $812.
s is at seat 2 with $241.50.
n is at seat 3 with $802.50.
M is at seat 4 with $851.
p is at seat 5 with $1088.
The button is at seat 5.

timprov posts the small blind of $5.
s posts the big blind of $10.

timprov: 3s 2d 3d 8s 2s

First Round:

n folds. M raises to $20. p folds.
timprov calls. s calls.

timprov takes 2 cards. s takes 2 cards.
M takes 2 cards.

timprov: 3s 2d 8s Kh 2c

Second Round:

timprov checks. s checks. M bets
$10. timprov calls. s raises to $20.
M calls. timprov calls.

timprov takes 2 cards. s takes 1 card.
M takes 1 card.

timprov: 3s 2d 8s Ks 3c

Third Round:

timprov checks. s bets $20. M
raises to $40. timprov folds.

[dibbs]

I do like your dead cards, but facing 2 bets in this pot with a two card draw just can't be a positive call can it? Maybe it's closer than I think but I can't see it, especially if it might be 3-bet.

[Luv2DriveTT]

I like the fold. But keep in mind I am tighter in this game than the rest of you, I fold after the 1st draw if I don't improve out of position normally (but I wouldn't here because of the extra duces & threes and a major plus).

I would expect both of them had rough hands at showdown, am I correct?

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]

I would expect both of them had rough hands at showdown, am I correct?


[/ QUOTE ]

s drew 1 and folded on the end. I would be surprised if M had better than a 9.

[MarkGritter]

I only count 6 BB at the start of the third round, so if there is no raise you are getting 8:1 to continue. Against the raise you are getting 5:1 at best, and the pot may get jammed; a fold is obviously correct here.

How bad do your opponents' hands have to be to continue? If they have no 2s or 3s but one of them has a pat 9 you are drawing pretty slim. Even against a pat T you don't have odds to continue:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
pokenum -l27 3s 2d 8s / ks 3c kh 2c 2s 3d - 9c 7h 4d 5h - 9d 6h 5c 4s 7s
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 35904 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 3s 2d 1920 5.35 33984 94.65 0 0.00 0.053
9c 4d 7h 5h 1992 5.55 30888 86.03 3024 8.42 0.098
7s 4s 5c 9d 6h 28968 80.68 3912 10.90 3024 8.42 0.849

pokenum -l27 3s 2d 8s / ks 3c kh 2c 2s 3d - 9c 7h 4d 5h - td 6h 5c 4s 7s
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 35904 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 3s 2d 3396 9.46 32508 90.54 0 0.00 0.095
9c 4d 7h 5h 7842 21.84 28062 78.16 0 0.00 0.218
7s 4s 5c Td 6h 24666 68.70 11238 31.30 0 0.00 0.687

pokenum -l27 3s 2d 8s / ks 3c kh 2c 2s 3d - 7h 4d 3h 2h - 9d 8c 6h 5c 4s
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 35904 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 3s 2d 3432 9.56 32448 90.37 24 0.07 0.096
4d 7h 3h 2h 11238 31.30 24642 68.63 24 0.07 0.313
4s 8c 5c 9d 6h 21210 59.07 14694 40.93 0 0.00 0.591
</pre><hr />

I think you pretty much have to assume that both your opponents are still drawing to call here even in the unraised pot. I think it is somewhat likely that the case 2 is in somebody's hand, too, but you can be behind even when it's not.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
pokenum -mc 500000 -l27 3s 2d 8s / ks 3c kh 2c 2s 3d - 8c 7h 4d 3h - 9d 6h 5c 4s
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 3s 2d 139461 27.89 360366 72.07 173 0.03 0.279
8c 4d 7h 3h 226901 45.38 272926 54.59 173 0.03 0.454
4s 5c 9d 6h 133465 26.69 366535 73.31 0 0.00 0.267

pokenum -mc 500000 -l27 3s 2d 8s / ks 3c kh 2c 2s 3d - 7h 4d 3h 2h - 9d 6h 5c 4s
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 3s 2d 109740 21.95 389814 77.96 446 0.09 0.220
4d 7h 3h 2h 276313 55.26 223241 44.65 446 0.09 0.553
4s 5c 9d 6h 113501 22.70 386499 77.30 0 0.00 0.227
</pre><hr />

My personal rule of thumb is that I need 9:1 or better to continue here.

HU it's a different matter, you have more like 40% equity against a hand like 8653 or 8754 and 50% vs. something like 9854, which may be sufficient to make up for the times when you're way behind a pat hand.

More math: Draw results with KK3322457799 dead:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
8 5 4 3 2 0.0135135 0.0135135
8 6 4 3 2 0.018018 0.0315315
8 6 5 3 2 0.018018 0.0495495
8 7 4 3 2 0.00900901 0.0585586
8 7 5 3 2 0.00900901 0.0675676
8 7 6 3 2 0.012012 0.0795796
98xxx 0.036036 0.115616
T-high 0.0840841 0.1997
</pre><hr />

Given your dead cards, anybody pat is about 4:1 odds to have a 9 rather than an 8 or better.

Relative probabilities of pat hands (9 or better) look something like this (assuming probability of drawing to pat is similar to being dealt pat, which is not quite true):

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
7 5 4 3 2 0.005934718
7 6 4 3 2 0.005934718
7 6 5 3 2 0.005934718
7 6 5 4 2 0.023738872
8 5 4 3 2 0.004451039
8 6 4 3 2 0.004451039
8 6 5 3 2 0.004451039
8 6 5 4 2 0.017804154
8 6 5 4 3 0.017804154
8 7 4 3 2 0.004451039
8 7 5 3 2 0.004451039
8 7 5 4 2 0.017804154
8 7 5 4 3 0.017804154
8 7 6 3 2 0.004451039
8 7 6 4 2 0.017804154
8 7 6 4 3 0.017804154
8 7 6 5 2 0.017804154
8 7 6 5 3 0.017804154

9 5 4 3 2 0.005934718
9 6 4 3 2 0.005934718
9 6 5 3 2 0.005934718
9 6 5 4 2 0.023738872
9 6 5 4 3 0.023738872
9 6 5 4 3 0.023738872
9 7 4 3 2 0.005934718
9 7 5 3 2 0.005934718
9 7 5 4 2 0.023738872
9 7 5 4 3 0.023738872
9 7 6 3 2 0.005934718
9 7 6 4 2 0.023738872
9 7 6 4 3 0.023738872
9 7 6 5 2 0.023738872
9 7 6 5 3 0.023738872
9 7 6 5 4 0.09495549
9 8 4 3 2 0.004451039
9 8 5 3 2 0.004451039
9 8 5 4 2 0.017804154
9 8 5 4 3 0.017804154
9 8 6 3 2 0.004451039
9 8 6 4 2 0.017804154
9 8 6 4 3 0.017804154
9 8 6 5 2 0.017804154
9 8 6 5 3 0.017804154
9 8 6 5 4 0.071216617
9 8 7 3 2 0.004451039
9 8 7 4 2 0.017804154
9 8 7 4 3 0.017804154
9 8 7 5 2 0.017804154
9 8 7 5 3 0.017804154
9 8 7 5 4 0.071216617
9 8 7 6 2 0.017804154
9 8 7 6 3 0.017804154
9 8 7 6 4 0.071216617
</pre><hr />

Of course, there is also the probability that neither player is pat.... bleh. Too much work to do by hand. /images/graemlins/smile.gif