Standard, yet worth discussing

[fnurt]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

UTG+2 (t2325)
MP1 (t365)
MP2 (t925)
MP3 (t685)
CO (t1780)
Button (t905)
Hero (t940)
BB (t720)
UTG (t720)
UTG+1 (t1635)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t20, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t100) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero bets 60, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG raises to 175, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero...

[Slow Play Ray]

...calls.

[twolf]

given his stack and the blinds, I assume he sucks and has a K. You have little fold equity on a push so just call with good implied odds. There will be 450 in the pot on the turn to which he will likely push his last 525 at which point you will fold given the bad odds on your allin call. Very standard, yes?

I love having a pair and a flush draw, but I would worry that my ace isn't an out here. I'd call for only 115 more, and if you spike a spade, you are gold, and if you spike a 3, you are most likely good. He most likely has AK, KQ, or KJs, and possibly 66. You either got 9 outs, 11 outs, or 14 outs, I'd assume the 11 and gamble that he doesn't have pocket 6's.

If he prices you out of a turn (likely he is going all in on the turn givenb his stack), muck it, you'll still have plenty stack to get back in it, but if you hit one of your cards, he is out of there.

You could fold here, but I'd probably gamble a little.

I do know a push here isn't doing anything, he is sticking around regardless.

[Blindcurve]

[ QUOTE ]
You have little fold equity on a push so just call with good implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the question, really. I don't think you have enough FE on the flop, but I think you might be able to push any non-flush, ace or 3 turn card, and force UTG into a decision.
Of course, your chances will be significantly worse at that point, but if you've mentally committed to seeing both cards, then maybe the turn push will give you a slightly bigger chance of taking down the pot uncontested.

It is also entirely possible UTG is drawing to a smaller flush. I think he has something like KJ-K8.

-D.

[TheBlueMonster]

[ QUOTE ]
possibly 66.

[/ QUOTE ]
seriously doubt it. Naked King is most likely.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
given his stack and the blinds, I assume he sucks and has a K. You have little fold equity on a push so just call with good implied odds. There will be 450 in the pot on the turn to which he will likely push his last 525 at which point you will fold given the bad odds on your allin call. Very standard, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. Don't I turn myself from a slight favorite into a substantial dog by adopting this line?

I also wonder if I have much in the way of implied odds given how obvious my draw is.

[johnnybeef]

I'd estimate you to be at 40-50% here. I like a raise of about half of your stack with the intention of pushing the turn or calling a push on the flop. Get in there and gamble.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
possibly 66.

[/ QUOTE ]
seriously doubt it. Naked King is most likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you discount it so quickly? Alot of people like to limp in early position with small pocket pairs, and with a flop with a possible flush draw and a king on it, you wouldn't slowplay a set here. I'm not saying that its the most likely hand, like I said, it also could be AK, KQs, KQo, or KJs. I'd still assume I had all of 11 outs, but if we got all in when another 3 fell and I saw 66, it wouldn't suprise me too much.

[Blindcurve]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
possibly 66

[/ QUOTE ] seriously doubt it. Naked King is most likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 66 plays the same way, though. It should be considered- I think for most intents and purposes we're playing for a flush. Regardless, all the money is going in if we catch an ace or three, so the 66 possibility isn't critically important.

It has occurred to me that we're not getting paid if we hit. Which would be an argument for pushing...

-D.

[TheBlueMonster]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
possibly 66

[/ QUOTE ] seriously doubt it. Naked King is most likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 66 plays the same way, though. It should be considered- I think for most intents and purposes we're playing for a flush. Regardless, all the money is going in if we catch an ace or three, so the 66 possibility isn't critically important.


[/ QUOTE ]
I'm still feeling something like KJ or even K10 here. But as you point out, all the money is going in with an A or 3.

[curtains]

I would just move allin after UTG raises. You don't have a lot of chips and are a small favorite against most hands that have just top pair. Looks like a very good time to gamble.

[FishInAPhoneBooth]

[ QUOTE ]

I would just move allin after UTG raises. You don't have a lot of chips and are a small favorite against most hands that have just top pair. Looks like a very good time to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur. Get all the $$ in while you still have the chance.

[Pat Southern]

I push here, you're probably a slight favorite and you definately have some FE.

[DonT77]

push

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]

I would just move allin after UTG raises. You don't have a lot of chips and are a small favorite against most hands that have just top pair. Looks like a very good time to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

[EverettKings]

It all depends on if this guy has the capacity to lay down a top pair hand like KQ. If this is a small buyin 10+1 you're very unlikely to get any of the fold equity that makes a push so profitable. Bad opponents are also more likely to pay you off if you hit, making a call better. In a $200 event I like it a lot more.

Though maybe pushing wouldn't be as scary as a comitting reraise to, say, 500. Any decent player sees that bet as an effective all in, but it looks scarier since it looks like you want a call.

Everett

[John W]

Well said. T.wolf

[SossMan]

http://www.nspcc.org.uk/images/info_tarzan.jpg

[John W]

You lead with it, Im not sure how abvious it is. What's obvious is that UTG is going broke this hand, win or lose. I like calling here and seeing what developes on the turn. If I get the feeling that someone is ready to go broke, I suggest trying to make a hand first and calling $115 to win the rest of his stack is the cheapest and some would say the safer way, or the weak way to play the hand, but i hate to get knocked out on a draw early a tournament when I could have just called a cheap bet and proceeded from there.

[Benal]

[ QUOTE ]
Get in there and gamble

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. Poooooosh

[TripleQ]

Do you suppose that this may be the case where you'd be willing to take a modestly -EV situation in a hand (i.e. pushing knowing UTG has a K or 66) but over the entire tournament would be +EV? Plus your implied odds are probably better when pushing the flop as opposed to betting the turn if the spade hits.

The math:

Let's say he's got something like KTs (3), KJ (12), KQ (12), 66 (3), 33 (1), QsJs (1). His line makes him look a little donkish, so maybe he has a wider range, but I think this range can serve well as a representation of whatever his actual range is.

I'm also gonna assume that the only reasonable raise here is a push to simplify the math.

So, let's say we push and he really is a donk and calls with all the hands in his range. Then, your equity in the final pot is 49% of 1500 = 735, and we put in an extra 640, so the cEV is +t95 (taking the playing from where you stopped the action).

Now, if we push and he folds his QsJs and his KTs, that's 4/32 hands. So, 12.5% of the time we earn the current pot of 335. The other 87.5% of the time, we have 47.7% equity in a pot of t1500 = t715.5, after putting in an extra t640. Thus, our total cEV on the play is .125 * 335 + .875 * (715.5-640) = ~t108.

What if he calls us only with a set? Then, he folds 28/32 hands. So, 87.5% of the time he folds, and 12.5% of the time we have a cEV of .29*1500 - 640 = -205. Total cEV = t267.5.

Now, if we call and he pushes any turn, we won't have odds to call unimproved. 14/47 cards improve us on the turn. So, we fold 70% of the time and lose t115. 9/47 cards give us the nut flush on the turn--giving us a cEV of .97*1500-640 = t815 19% of the time. 5/47 cards give us trips or two pair (I checked, almost the same equity) for a cEV of .87*1500-640 = t665 11% of the time. This makes the total cEV on the play t147.5.

Thus, this is all very read dependent. If you have good FE, pushing the flop is best. Otherwise, calling's best.

[fnurt]

Thanks for doing the math. I'm surprised to see that calling is +EV, I would have assumed the opposite.

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for doing the math. I'm surprised to see that calling is +EV, I would have assumed the opposite.

[/ QUOTE ]

You clearly have odds. Throw in implied odds and it's obvious. Also, calling is lower variance, which translates to +EV in tournies.