JJ vs 789TT

[tyler_cracker]

Live 2/4. Table is very passive except for one maniac, who isn't in this hand. Hero has JJ on the button. Villain is SB and is weak-tight, but a lot better than everyone else at the table. I think i recognize him from a 4/8 game elsewhere in town. 4 limpers, Hero raises, everyone calls. 5 to the flop.

Flop (10 SB): T T 9 rainbow

Everyone checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, 2 callers.

Turn (7 BB): 8

Everyone checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, EP villain calls, other caller folds.

River (9 BB): 7

Villain checks, <font color="red">Hero bets, Villain raises</font>, Hero...?

[jaxUp]

seems like a pretty standard call to me. Were you curious about raising or about folding on the river?

[dagat]

I like 3betting. You have a strong hand, and with the action the hand played out, it seems like hes behind.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
Were you curious about raising or about folding on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising. Clearly i'm never folding for 1 bet here.

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is SB and is weak-tight

[/ QUOTE ]

Minimum he's raising with here is a J...just call it.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

I think I'd raise here since he'll have a 69s here and think you have AA, KK, QQ or something and that he's going to be rich often enough.

A weak tight isn't going to have 88 or 77 here.

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd raise here since he'll have a 69s here and think you have AA, KK, QQ or something and that he's going to be rich often enough.

A weak tight isn't going to have 88 or 77 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see a weak/tight player raising with the idiot straight. Matter of fact he isn't calling the SB with 69o.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see a weak/tight player raising with the idiot straight. Matter of fact he isn't calling the SB with 69o.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Weak-tight" is, obviously, shorthand. I can't think of any good examples of Villain's play, so i can't really convey a complete read to you. He definitely wouldn't have called with 69o, but it's not impossible he could have been playing something else with a 6 (66/56/A6) in it.

Out of curiosity (and because my read is so vague), does your answer change if Villain is instead an unknown?

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]

"Weak-tight" is, obviously, shorthand. I can't think of any good examples of Villain's play, so i can't really convey a complete read to you. He definitely wouldn't have called with 69o, but it's not impossible he could have been playing something else with a 6 (66/56/A6) in it.

Out of curiosity (and because my read is so vague), does your answer change if Villain is instead an unknown?

[/ QUOTE ]

My definition of a weak-tight player is that of someone who is only going to raise a hand that he is almost sure to win. Now, he could be raising you with a six. How could he put you on a pair of Jacks and see you walking into a straight on this board? But we're only putting him on a possible straight.

Why can't we put villian on 77? These types of hands are classic weak-tight postflop play. Call the preflop raise with the PP and call down to the river thinking Hero has overcards.

I simply don't think that Reraising this player is +EV. With the range of raising hands for this type of player I can't see us being profitable by popping this river again.

To reraise this river I'd need to be playing against a total fish, or a complete maniac. But I don't even see how this play would be +EV. I'd need to look at it longer but I'm still saying just call.

[POKhER]

If he held QJ, why didn't he raise the turn? Have you noticed him "slow playing" anything down to the river?

I know some opponents like to raise rivers, others do it standardly on the turn.

The 7 gives him a Jack high straight, before the river though he'd have no straight.

If he raised the turn it would smell of QJ for a Qhigh straight.

I say call because your only splitting with another jack, and losing to Q high. I dont think a weak tight raises with low end of a 1card straight.

However he could easily put you on AA/KK/QQ so yeah call.

[@bsolute_luck]

no point in raising. easy call. split with another J, lose to a full house or QJ, beat 2 pair or trip Tens.

[radek2166]

How many times have u seen the ass end of the staight raise here? More than you would think.

I just call. Then kick myself in the nuts when I am shown the 56o

[tyler_cracker]

One of the things i'm finding interesting about these replies is that there aren't any "hard" justifications for calling or raising. No one has tried -- and i haven't seen any way -- to bust out some math on this problem. There's no sensible way (that i see) to assign hand ranges to Villain at this point. So we're stuck playing on feel. I realize this happens; i just find it interesting.

Two things that factored into my decision that no one has mentioned:

1. Villain check-raised rather than donking the river. This suggests a little more strength, does it not?

2. I'm happy to 3-bet, but it would really suck to have it 4-bet back to me, because i still can't fold.

Results:
<font color="white">So, i decided to just call (but felt like a weenie about it). Villain turned over 77 (good call lautzutao!).</font>

I'd call. Hands that beat you are 77,88,QJ,T9. You are not going to fold a Jack. These are all likely hands, I think.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the things i'm finding interesting about these replies is that there aren't any "hard" justifications for calling or raising. No one has tried -- and i haven't seen any way -- to bust out some math on this problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

There isn't much math that can be done unless you can put villain on a sensible range of hands. All we know is that he called preflop, flop, turn, and check-raised the river. About the only thing that is certain is that villain has a very strong hand. All there is an assessment of what villain would check-raise the river with. The only way you 3-bet is if he would check-raise a hand as weak as trip tens. Do you see why?

How is a weak-tight calling that flop (with his holding)?/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
The only way you 3-bet is if he would check-raise a hand as weak as trip tens. Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and this is the other thing i was going to mention. I should only be reraising if i think i'm ahead 55% of the time when i'm called. Given that i wasn't sure of that, plus the possibility of getting 4-bet, this pushes the decision to a call.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
How is a weak-tight calling that flop (with his holding)?/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

He never had to face more than 1 bet, my table image was probably a little LAGgy given how passive the rest of the table was and how i'd been attacking the maniac, and i guess he was a little looser after the flop.

I was surprised as well when he turned over that 77 though.