How much do you trust your read of this unknown?

[RockLobster]

Online 1-2

I'm in the CO-1. Notable opponent in this hand is an unknown in the CO. I'm dealt J/forums/images/icons/club.gif J/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif. 1 MP limper, I raise, CO 3-bets, fold to MP, we both call.

Question 1: Who caps here?

3 to the flop:
[9/forums/images/icons/heart.gif 2/forums/images/icons/spade.gif 5/forums/images/icons/club.gif]

MP checks, I bet, CO calls (hmmm), MP folds. If CO is reasonable, I have him on AK, probably suited (my PF raise meant that I have something, I didn't have a loose image at this table). 2 to the turn:

[9/forums/images/icons/heart.gif 2/forums/images/icons/spade.gif 5/forums/images/icons/club.gif] A/forums/images/icons/spade.gif

Time to find out if my read is right. I bet, he raises, I fold. I think this is the right play since he was an unknown. BUT...

Question 2 (the real question): Against a reasonable opponent, do you trust your read enough to check here, then fold to a bet?

[rigoletto]

The question you should ask: will he lay down QQ, KK to a turn bet here and/or will he call with TT, 88 etc? I think betting out on the turn is often the right playagainst a very agressive or a weak oppnent because:

1) he might fold a better hand
2) he might call with a worse hand
3) and this is the most important reason: He's likely to bet the turn with anything when you check to him.

you can safely fold to a raise.

Remember: the A might look just as scary to him as it does to you!

[CMangano]

Personally, I would call and check-call the river. I think the pot is big enough that you can't lay this down, especially since he is an unkown. It will cost you 2 more big bets max (assuming the A did help him and you are planning to check the river). Whether he has the A or not you get a good read on an unknown in a pot that makes calling correct. If you lay this down and he doesn't have the A, all he sees is a bluffing opportunity every time a scare card hits. Not to mention the fact that you lost a big pot that you had won.

[RockLobster]

Hi CM--

You make some good points, and it would be nice to know for sure whether this guy had the goods or not. But I still like my bet / fold on the turn /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif. Calling down was an option, but like Rigoletto said, the Ace was just as scary to him as it was me. He could be bluffing here, but it's unlikely. And 2 BB's here and 2 BB's there add up quick...

Thanks--