Can't figure out my edge on this one...

[Loci]

1 table tournament, party poker.

blinds are 10/15, only third hand of the tournament. Everyone has ~800, Hero has exactly 800 Hero was on the button with black AA...

UTG-fold
EP2-raises to 55
MP1-calls 55
MP2-folds
MP3- raises to 200
LP1-calls 200
LP2-folds
Hero- all in 800
Sb- calls
EP2- calls
MP1- calls
MP3- calls
LP1- calls

Not quite what I wanted to see. Before anyone asks, I only wanted the 1-2 people that had already put 200 in to call. I didn't expect a literal orgy of callers.

Q/10/10 3 6

SB-QQ
EP2-AK
MP1-99
MP3-55
LP1-KJ (???)

Now, believe it or not, I don't think this is a bad beat. My roommate is about to cry ($30 is a lot to him) but I'm trying to explain that this wasn't exactly a bad beat. It's poker, it happens. Now, I'm pretty good at calculating probability, but everytime I try and get my pre-flop edge on this one, I end up proving that gravity does not exist. My most reasonable calculation was that I'm only about 43% preflop, but I think this is wrong too. Any help with this would be appreciated.
Loci

[KJL]

Your estimate of 43% is pretty accurate. The odds calculator on cardplayer has AA as about a 43% favorite against QQ, 99, 55, and KJ. However the calculator only works for 4 oppenents. But AK even it is suited and there are no cards from that suit out already, will not effect your edge by more than a few percent. If you want I'll figure out the exact calculation later.

I ran this one through the Cambridge Poker Analyzer, and it gives the AA ~39.5%. This is why I don't play on PartyPoker, incidentally -- everyone is way too loose. I can see the call with QQ and maybe, just maybe, the AK (which ironically enough was ~3.1% to win here), but everyone else had to know they were beat, if they had any brains at all.

Overall probabilities, 1M hand Monte Carlo simulation:

AA 39.49%
AK 3.06%
QQ 18.37%
99 16.86%
55 15.27%
JK 6.95%

[protoverus]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran this one through the Cambridge Poker Analyzer, and it gives the AA ~39.5%. This is why I don't play on PartyPoker, incidentally -- everyone is way too loose.
Overall probabilities, 1M hand Monte Carlo simulation:

AA 39.49%
AK 3.06%
QQ 18.37%
99 16.86%
55 15.27%
JK 6.95%

[/ QUOTE ]


So you are saying that you don't want a 40% chance at winning 4000 chips and an almost certain money placement?
That's exactly why I DO play at partypoker...

be well.

[pzhon]

If you have the suits, Two Dimes (http://www.twodimes.net/poker) can give you the exact results for those hands.

If you don't have the suits, or otherwise want to put your opponents on a range of hands, you can use Poker Stove (http://www.pokerstove.com).

Getting all-in with AA on the third hand is great. You either win a huge amount and are very likely to finish first or second, or else you can quickly move on to the next profitable tournament.

[Barry]

Since you don't have the suits, I poker stoved it using 2 scenarios. 1) AK and KJ are both offsuit and 2) AK and KJ are suited.

Case 1

46,050,031,872 games 212.446 secs 216,761,115 games/sec


equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 39.5240 % [ 00.39 00.00 ] { AA }
Hand 2: 18.5388 % [ 00.19 00.00 ] { QQ }
Hand 3: 03.1367 % [ 00.03 00.00 ] { AKo }
Hand 4: 17.0981 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { 99 }
Hand 5: 15.3926 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { 55 }
Hand 6: 06.3098 % [ 00.06 00.00 ] { KJo }

Case 2


5,116,670,208 games 32.429 secs 157,780,696 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 35.5591 % [ 00.35 00.00 ] { AA }
Hand 2: 17.2336 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { QQ }
Hand 3: 07.5164 % [ 00.07 00.00 ] { AKs }
Hand 4: 15.8002 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { 99 }
Hand 5: 14.1496 % [ 00.14 00.00 ] { 55 }
Hand 6: 09.7410 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { KJs }

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
1 table tournament, party poker.

blinds are 10/15, only third hand of the tournament. Everyone has ~800, Hero has exactly 800 Hero was on the button with black AA...

UTG-fold
EP2-raises to 55
MP1-calls 55
MP2-folds
MP3- raises to 200
LP1-calls 200
LP2-folds
Hero- all in 800
Sb- calls
EP2- calls
MP1- calls
MP3- calls
LP1- calls

Not quite what I wanted to see. Before anyone asks, I only wanted the 1-2 people that had already put 200 in to call. I didn't expect a literal orgy of callers.

Q/10/10 3 6

SB-QQ
EP2-AK
MP1-99
MP3-55
LP1-KJ (???)

Now, believe it or not, I don't think this is a bad beat. My roommate is about to cry ($30 is a lot to him) but I'm trying to explain that this wasn't exactly a bad beat. It's poker, it happens. Now, I'm pretty good at calculating probability, but everytime I try and get my pre-flop edge on this one, I end up proving that gravity does not exist. My most reasonable calculation was that I'm only about 43% preflop, but I think this is wrong too. Any help with this would be appreciated.
Loci

[/ QUOTE ]

The edge depends on the suits of all the hands. Using www.twodimes.net/poker (http://www.twodimes.net/poker), I found a range from 38.1%-41.3%. This whole range assumes that both the AK and the KJ are unsuited. The upper end of the range at 41.3% has all of the opponent's hands with hearts and diamonds, so that our chance of making a flush is maximized, and our opponent's chances of making a flush are minimized. The lower end of the range at 38.1% has the worst case of every hand having spades and clubs except AhKd, so that our chance of making a flush is minimized, while the probability of an opposing flush is maximized. Both of these extremes are highly unlikely, but this shows the range, with the actual answer somewhere in the middle. This is in line with the other posted results.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1253581
pokenum -h as ac - ah kd - qh qd - 9h 9d - 5h 5d - kh jd
Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 271646 41.28 381066 57.91 5296 0.80 0.416
Kd Ah 13562 2.06 637104 96.82 7342 1.12 0.025
Qd Qh 117726 17.89 538899 81.90 1383 0.21 0.179
9d 9h 110061 16.73 546564 83.06 1383 0.21 0.168
5d 5h 99932 15.19 556693 84.60 1383 0.21 0.152
Jd Kh 37739 5.74 616840 93.74 3429 0.52 0.059


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1253582
pokenum -h as ac - ah kd - qs qc - 9s 9c - 5s 5c - ks jc
Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 250940 38.14 401705 61.05 5363 0.82 0.385
Kd Ah 32289 4.91 618378 93.98 7341 1.12 0.054
Qs Qc 118597 18.02 538037 81.77 1374 0.21 0.181
9s 9c 110669 16.82 545965 82.97 1374 0.21 0.169
5s 5c 100336 15.25 556298 84.54 1374 0.21 0.153
Ks Jc 37836 5.75 616820 93.74 3352 0.51 0.059
</pre><hr />

[Loci]

Thanks everybody! Sorry I didn't save the suits; I didn't actually think I'd be posting this, but I thought it might help Jeff (the roommate) sleep at night... It's two days later and he's still fuming. ah... sweet novice. I've been giving him outside pointers, but I haven't gotten around to talking about pot odds and implied odds yet. He's still hung up on mastering the whole play-tight-but-aggressive thing. In any case, on the whole, while it naturally would have been great to sestuple up, I'm just trying to get him to understand that a ~40% (2:5) shot at a 1:5 payoff is what is generally considered a good thing.
On a side note, why is it so hard for people to understand that being a 4:1 favorite means that you're going to lose ~ one out of every five times? I'm going to lose this hand over HALF the time, so I shouldn't be all bent out of shape about it. I don't think it would be out of the realm of normal expectations to assume that with a 4800 chip lead (against 4 other players) on level one would PROBABLY ensure me to be in the top two without doing anything else, and a very reasonable shot at first place.
Thanks again, guys. I appreciate the help!
In the words of Garth: "I like to play."