Hit set but flop is draw heavy: did I protect or wimp out? [Archive]

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10-01-2005, 06:36 AM

Not really enough hands to get reads yet. Mostly loose-passive table.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 (poster) checks, Hero calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Flop is scary for my set, since any spade has a flush draw, plus there are many straight draws possible. I figure betting now will make every draw call and give them good odds to call again on the turn. My only hope of protecting my hand is to bet or raise a safe turn and hope to get the draws out, leaving only Ax or maybe Tx. I thought this might work with an EP limper in front of me who I hoped had an A or T and would bet, allowing me to raise.

Turn: (3 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls.

As you see it was checked to me. At least my bet still cut down the flush chasers odds more than a flop bet. I did get some folds, as I had hoped. I do realize that flush draws can still call here, but the call isn't as profitable as it would have been if I had bet the flop too, and had I been able to raise, it would've been unprofitable.

I still feel wimpy for checking the flop, though.

River: (7 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+2 calls.

The A most likely makes the EP limper trip As or he slowplayed the flopped flush, so I happily cap with my boat.
Final Pot: 15 BB

So bet or check on flop? Definitely bet turn, right? Pretty easy, but I don't know if giving a free card on the flop is better or worse than the EV you gain by cutting opponents odds more by the turn bet into a smaller pot.

silkyslim

10-01-2005, 06:39 AM

i think you need to bet out flop. you probably have the best hand and if not you have 10 outs to improve. u might fold out a crappy spade that will ruin your day.

10-01-2005, 06:53 AM

You need to bet out on this flop bro.

Yes bet the turn like you did.

Yes cap the river. nice.

Piiop

10-01-2005, 08:06 AM

You need to raise preflop and bet the flop.

You're missing out on value when you don't bet the flop - a lot of it. Don't worry about the draws yet - it was checked to you 2nd to last, you need to bet. Maybe had someone bet the flop and a bunch of people called, then you could wait until a safe turn to raise.

RickA

10-01-2005, 08:10 AM

I don't think you are ever right to give a free card. You might be trying to manipulate the odds against the flush draws on the turn but you are giving 5 players infinite odds on the flop. Inside straight draws in addition to low spades are stealing your equity. If you are beaten you still have 7 outs plus another 3 after the turn if the board doesn't pair.

WalkAmongUs

10-01-2005, 08:15 AM

I agree...bet the flop because giving infinite odds is a big mistake. Also, even if you wait to bet/raise till the turn the flush draws will call anyways due to implied odds so it doesn't really matter if you make the pot a couple BB smaller on the turn.

Also, a bet or check/raise protects hands. Giving a free card NEVER protects a hand.

TomBrooks

10-01-2005, 08:25 AM

I think you should bet the flop, ya.

stuartharris

10-01-2005, 08:53 AM

For the sake of argument, let's stipulate that you're already behind on the flop to someone holding two spades. I think it wouldn't be far off to argue that betting into five people with 2.6:1 odds (actually even better--as someone else pointed out, if you miss the turn, you get 3 more outs) of catching your boat by the river is a value bet. Bet the flop.

hemstock

10-01-2005, 09:33 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (24.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 27.25 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Qc Js (straight, queen high).
Hero has 9s 9h (full house, nines full of eights).
MP3 has Qs Ts (two pair, tens and eights).
Outcome: Hero wins 27.25 BB. 

Definetly bet the flop. By the river you have 10 outs to improve to a full house and you have a huge equity edge.

TennesseeKid

10-01-2005, 11:11 AM

I thought you played it perfectly.

Redd

10-01-2005, 11:14 AM

Even if all of your opponents flipped over two /images/graemlins/spade.gifs each, you could value-bet this flop.

10-01-2005, 01:53 PM

Raise that flop. You are NOT going to make someone with a flush draw fold to any amount of raises. You're more than likely way ahead of your opponents. Take their money while you can! You have a good amount of outs to boat up too.

10-01-2005, 02:05 PM

I highly doubt you can protect your hand, especially at this level. People will call with all kinds of absurd things. Bet the flop as you are still likely ahead. There's nothing wrong with thinking about protecting your hand, but with 5 other players in the hand, you are simply missing out on value by not betting the flop.

10-01-2005, 02:08 PM

Does raising pf with 9s have a +EV? Is the EV mitigated by the fact that the lower limits are rife with loose players who see Ax and a dream hand?

I think preflop play was right on, but that's me.

numeri

10-01-2005, 03:16 PM

Raise pre-flop. You have a pretty significant edge against a limper and a poster.

On the flop, you should bet for value. You may very well be ahead, and if you are not, you have 7 outs to improve. (And you'll have 10 on the turn.) At no point in this hand will you have the ability to give any draw poor odds. In that case, you should be betting/raising for value.

Aaron W.

10-01-2005, 03:19 PM

It's the classic give up a free card to give them worse odds on the turn play. Don't do that ever again.

Aaron W.

10-01-2005, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does raising pf with 9s have a +EV? Is the EV mitigated by the fact that the lower limits are rife with loose players who see Ax and a dream hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it +EV to have players call with hands worse than yours?

bottomset

10-01-2005, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does raising pf with 9s have a +EV? Is the EV mitigated by the fact that the lower limits are rife with loose players who see Ax and a dream hand?

I think preflop play was right on, but that's me.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are a pretty sizeable favorite against A2-A9, and a small favorite against AT-AK, you want the bad players who play the garbage aces upfront to pay extra to see the flop, and you get plenty of action on A9x flops, since they can't ever fold it after hitting an ace

[ QUOTE ]
I thought you played it perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]

um easy preflop raise, very easy flop bet(bigger mistake of the 2, and fairly large)

NateDog

10-01-2005, 03:46 PM

On the same line as OP, did the hero here overplay this flop? (Oh, and you gotta love friday late night tables)

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP2 calls, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, MP2 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls $2.50 (All-In), MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (21.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 33.25 BB

numeri

10-01-2005, 03:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the same line as OP, did the hero here overplay this flop? (Oh, and you gotta love friday late night tables)

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP2 calls, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, MP2 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls $2.50 (All-In), MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (21.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 33.25 BB

[/ QUOTE ]
Looks fine. Your equity is huge here. If MP2 or Button folds, calling the 3-bet might be prudent.

===================
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,054,143 games 11.297 secs 181,830 games/sec

Board: Ts 3s 5s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 34.2032 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { ThTc }
Hand 2: 65.4733 % [ 00.65 00.00 ] { AsKs }
Hand 3: 00.1608 % [ 00.00 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 00.1627 % [ 00.00 00.00 ] { random }

Guthrie

10-01-2005, 03:56 PM

Grunch.

Raise preflop.

Bet the flop. If someone has a flush or flush draw they'll likely let you know. If they don't, why give them one for free? And how do they know you're not betting a made flush?

SoftcoreRevolt

10-01-2005, 03:57 PM

Never try to protect against Flush Draws. Just bet for value here, you have an equity edge even if you don't have the best hand.

10-01-2005, 04:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if all of your opponents flipped over two /images/graemlins/spade.gifs each, you could value-bet this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this nails it. But if I'm up against just one with the flopped flush and everyone else folds to my bet, I'm now behind, right? So then check-call, check-call UI? Folding the river isn't necessary because there is a good chance (better than pot odds probably) villain has just one or two pair.

10-01-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does raising pf with 9s have a +EV? Is the EV mitigated by the fact that the lower limits are rife with loose players who see Ax and a dream hand?

I think preflop play was right on, but that's me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had found from my PT stats that over the last 10k hands that I had been losing a bit of money by raising OOP with 99, so I've been limping for a change. I thought this was because so many Ax, Kx, and even Qx players cold-call at microlimits that the raise was counterproductive. At these limits, UI 9s are rarely good at showdown.

Yerma

10-01-2005, 04:53 PM

Hi, this play is no good here because you also have a draw. You are getting implied odds on this bet as well. Make this play in those rare cases where 4th street can absolutely break your hand.

Student Caine

10-01-2005, 05:43 PM

In a loose-passive game I am raising this hand pre-flop.

You have to bet this flop. This is not a "wait to raise situation" here. You have a lot of equity and want to be putting money in the pot.

Also, if another spade hits on the Turn, what are you going to do? Unless you are stuck calling 2 cold you will be getting odds to call a turn bet.

The logic you used to get to the flop "check" was on the right track, but you didn't take it out far enough.

Student Caine

10-01-2005, 05:58 PM

Two Grunches for the price of one!

Preflop: Good raise. With TT I also just call the 3-Bet

Flop: BB's 3-Bet screams big pair or possibly AKs...*maybe* AK, but I discount that here. With his raise on the flop I have to think he has a big pair and a flush draw...say A/images/graemlins/spade.gifAx. Heck, BB is *almost* All-In so we could be looking at just a big pair here (no flush draw) and he is trying to fold people out with his raise.

Regardless, you have good equity here and all of the other players sticking around are just helping your value here.

Turn: The button is playing the "flopped flush" line that I would expect from the Party 1/2 donks...passive on the flop and then waske up on the Turn. I like the flat call of his bet, with just Button and MP2 in the pot you don't have enough players here to bet for value.

River: Nice card. Nice Pot. Obviously here we want to see the betting capped...then we just wait for the "Party Fireworks"

Nice hand.

NateDog

10-01-2005, 10:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Two Grunches for the price of one!

Preflop: Good raise. With TT I also just call the 3-Bet

Flop: BB's 3-Bet screams big pair or possibly AKs...*maybe* AK, but I discount that here. With his raise on the flop I have to think he has a big pair and a flush draw...say A/images/graemlins/spade.gifAx. Heck, BB is *almost* All-In so we could be looking at just a big pair here (no flush draw) and he is trying to fold people out with his raise.

Regardless, you have good equity here and all of the other players sticking around are just helping your value here.

Turn: The button is playing the "flopped flush" line that I would expect from the Party 1/2 donks...passive on the flop and then waske up on the Turn. I like the flat call of his bet, with just Button and MP2 in the pot you don't have enough players here to bet for value.

River: Nice card. Nice Pot. Obviously here we want to see the betting capped...then we just wait for the "Party Fireworks"

Nice hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand reading is spot on. BB had AJo (no spade) and the button slowplayed his flopped nut flush (A8). Mr. Table Captain (button) was none too happy with me /images/graemlins/grin.gif

ChuckyB

10-02-2005, 12:33 AM

Gotta bet the flop. Your hand is vulnerable, but you have re-draws to bigger hands that will win. If someone flopped the flush you have 7 outs on the flop and 10 on the turn (to get the board to pair.)

Many people won't respect your bet anyway since you're last to act on a check-around.

Gotta get paid!!!