AA in EP

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Sorry for the OH NOS I CAN'T PLAY AAs POST, but this and from the Boss Network I has been running through my head most of the night. As always, the Boss network features some insanely bad players. Villain is one of them. Nothing really stands out about his play, he's really loose, and slightly more aggressive than say your average Party fish. Sorry for a lack of hand history, but, yeah the network sucks.

Get AA in UTG+2, folded to me. I raise. Folded to CO who 3 bets, SB and BB call, I cap, all call.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checked to me, I bet, CO raises, SB folds, BB cold calls, I 3 bet, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet, CO calls, BB Raises, I 3 bet, CO folds, BB Calls.

Now, this was unexpected. I hit my hand and BB wakes up after the cold call. So what could he have. QJ beats me here, and he'd probably cold call with it preflop, and would obviously call the flop. He'd probably play the same with 88 and TT (or any pocket) looking at the action, and then would try to slow play, so those are options. He may also have had AK and not wanted to raise with it after the 3 bet. Pretty easy 3 bet.

River: 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB Bets.

What the Christ. That's really god damn weird. Is this a weak donk bet, or a strong one? Would he call the turn with the nuts for absolutely no reason then donk bet? Was he waiting for a safe river thinking I had KK or AA? He is stupid, so I guess that play would fit him.

So, should I be raising or calling here?

[cold_cash]

If he could have AK, AT, KT, TT, 88 or QJ I would raise and call a 3-bet, (especially after his non-cap of the turn), but not like it much.

[Eeegah]

I don't see any way he could have been improved by that 3 in a way that beats you. If it did help it's probably because he has A3, and in fact my spidey sense tells me he has two pair of some sort, and when you combine that range along with the possibility of QJs I think it's reasonable that you're ahead enough to raise and call a 3-bet.

[Mathieu]

I ran into some donks recently who used multiple donk bets with a very strong hand and I ended up paying off big. Donk-fecta or I don't know.

Like you said he could have TT (3),88 (3), AK (3) in this spot and we fear JQ (16). If he plays all these this way that makes you an underdog... (9-16)

Why would he not cap the turn without QJ? I think he has a weaker hand than the nuts, got scared when you raised him and then said [censored] it, I have a good hand therefore I bet. In the heat of the action that sounds much more likely than, "oh lets just call and then do my nasty donk bet - 3 bet line". You need to be about 2-1 favorite to raise here unless he will reraise you with weaker hands.

So we get 2/1 = 9/16 x L, where L is how more likely he is to play hands you beat this way.

It gives us a L of about 3.6. So a raise is correct if you think he will play a set or top 2 about 4 times more often this way then JQ.

I think it's about right.

[Nick C]

AK = 3 combos
KK = 3 combos
TT = 3 combos
88 = 3 combos
KT = 9 combos
AT = 3 combos
A8 = 3 combos

QJ = 16 combos

One thing to keep in mind is that when an obvious straight is possible (and you can't beat a straight), that is 16 combos right there, whereas some of the other hands you're hoping for instead will be cut into by the known cards.

I'd probably raise the river anyway, though. He'll 3-bet QJ, but he might've capped that on the turn if he had it. And if he has KT, maybe he'll 3-bet that too. (It doesn't sound like you suddenly become a huge underdog versus this opponent, when he 3-bets the river.) And if he just has JJ or something, there's a good chance he'll pay off a river raise with that.

Grunch....

Raise and call a 3bet.

Your ahead of way too many hands to miss bets here. Remember there is only one, as much sense as it makes, which beats you. I think the +ev play is a raise.

Hi!

[ QUOTE ]

Like you said he could have TT (3),88 (3), AK (3) in this spot and we fear JQ (16).


[/ QUOTE ]

Could you please explain these numbers to me? Are these the possible combinations he can have or something like that?

Thx.

Surely he caps the turn here with QJ ??

Seems you have a decent read on him as LAA so raise the river here.

[Mathieu]

Yes, the number in parentheses are possible combinations.

So you see that JQ is more likely that the other hands that we beat. It is the frequency based on card distribution and it assumes that villain will play all these hands this way with the same probability.

However there is another factor which is "how likely he is to play it this way". In my mind, not capping with the nuts makes little sense on the turn. It usually is pretty automatic, so I think we could assign QJ (the nuts) a smaller probability of being played this way than say a hands like a set or top 2 pairs(TT, 88,AK).

[Student Caine]

There are just too many hands that he has that you beat. I raise and call a 3-bet here. I am really, really tempted to cap this though based upon your "he's stupid" read.

[TomBrooks]

- Is this a weak donk bet, or a strong one?
STRONG

- Would he call the turn with the nuts for absolutely no reason then donk bet?
THIS IS WEIRD

- Was he waiting for a safe river thinking I had KK or AA? He is stupid, so I guess that play would fit him.
THAT WOULD BE TOO PASSIVE, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE FOR A BAD PLAYER.

So, should I be raising or calling here?
- LOOKS LIKE HE HAS TWO PAIR (AK PROBABLY, AT MAYBE), OR A STRAIGHT. [Edit: or lower set as NickC sed.] HARD TO PUT A BAD PLAYER ON A HAND: FLIP A COIN.

I say he is 50-50 to cap the turn with QJ.

A) 3 bets on 4th street and 3 on 5th is greater than 4 on 4th and 1 on 5th if he believes thats how the hand will play out. In terms of a deception layer he knows that you think QJ WOULD cap the turn, therefore in game your likely to hold that read and raise on the river.

B) He doesnt like variance and is waiting for a safe river card to start pumping his hand again.

I actually much prefer the call on the turn with the nuts.