Folding AA for one more in a big pot

[ggbman]

Comments on all streets, particularly the river

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, MP1 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB

[lil feller]

Without knowing the button its tough to say, but i'd think you're good more than 5% of the time here.

lf

[Jeff W]

Boy... I would not make that fold.

[imashyboi]

The only hands I see him having here would be a QJs for two pair or a set of 22. If he's weak tight then he might have AK. What's the results?

What hands can you beat that give that type of action preflop with the coordinated nature of the board by 4th St? You have UTG capping and BOTH MP1 and Button calling 2 more preflop. By the turn you're more than likely looking at least 2 pair, if not a set or possibly a straight.

I don't think you can bet into this type of board on the turn. Check/Call it down.

[Philuva]

I would fold. It looks like button has AK, UTG+1 has KK and MP1 has QJ.

[mscags]

Probably a good fold, but something I don't think I can do. You're losing to all capping hands here unless he would cap with AQ or 99. Still given the size of the pot I probably call.

[BobboFitos]

wow whats that saying about trying to make big folds in big pots?

[DeeJ]

It's possible villain has AQ here (or maybe a slow-played KK or the just possible AA) as he cold-called the UTG+1 raise. He is more likely to have 22 or AK or QJ.. I think you got to call and I expect to win only maybe 10% of the time.

[GuyOnTilt]

Check the flop.

GoT

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
Check the flop.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]
Someone care to explain why?

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the flop.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]
Someone care to explain why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's a great flop for him and he can checkraise the field since UTG1 capped and will most likely bet again.

[tonysoldier]

Check turn and river, call for one bet and fold for two on either street.

Logically speaking there is no way you can be ahead here. This is a good routine fold. You must call the turn for your two pair outs, and once you dont improve on the river, there is no way you can win. I know its a big pot, but when you know you are dead there is no reason to lose one more BB. The argument for calling would be that even though there is no logical way you can have the best hand, there may be enough money in the pot to call hoping the villain played illogically(eg he misclicked/misread his hand) or somehow how the villain had AQ or KK and played them very akwardly. I would fold in this situation despite the large pot odds if i had no read on my opponent.

[arkady]

I would check-raise the flop, but since thats not what ur asking...truly, that is a very difficult fold for me to make. It can't be out of the question that button is raising QK on the turn. He can also have KK or some paint variation.

Furthermore, I think you got UTG+1 beaten bad here.

[BarronVangorToth]

Think about the Party 30 game.

Will AA be the best hand 5% or more of the time in this spot?

Yes.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[gildwulf]

Get to showdown as cheaply as possible from the turn to the river.

[Barry]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the flop.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]
Someone care to explain why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's a great flop for him and he can checkraise the field since UTG1 capped and will most likely bet again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I posted almost the same exact situation a little while back and took the c/r route. That line didn't go over well with Dcfr and James.

Strange....

[Saborion]

Given the pot size our main priority should be to try to win it, but unless UTG+1 will raise with AK or JJ here if we bet a check is better? Either UTG+1 will bet and we can check-raise the field and get as much money in there as possible. Or it's checked around to someone in LP who bets and we check-raise and possibly narrow the field a bit? Either way works out fine?

[ggbman]

Button had AK, KK and JQ were also out there. I am surpised that some people objected to the river fold, but not the turn bet, which was iffy (although it allowed me to fold the river UI)

[sthief09]

there is a godo chance you got the other two beat, and I don't understand why an unknown can't have KQ or KJ or even KT or Q9 here. plenty of people will gamble it up with a big pair and draw. it's not hard to see Q9 or KQ betting the river

[whodaman]

i would want a strong read that the villian is a good thinking winning player.
Even still he might raise AQ or KQ here... and he only needs to do it like 1 in 17 times for you to show a profit...
This fold might be marginally correct... but honestly i think when you are 7 tabling and having to make quick decisions... this isn't a decision i would want to make.
But maybe these are the types of folds the best players make?

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
i would want a strong read that the villian is a good thinking winning player.
Even still he might raise AQ or KQ here... and he only needs to do it like 1 in 17 times for you to show a profit...
This fold might be marginally correct... but honestly i think when you are 7 tabling and having to make quick decisions... this isn't a decision i would want to make.
But maybe these are the types of folds the best players make?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. A lot of the best players find calldowns that i don't, but at the same time, i think (and the THINK part is key) that there is some exaggeration to how aggressive the lower end of the high stakes games (30-60, 50-100) and then folds can be found in some circumstances like this. I dunno, i'll keep trying to figure it out.