TPTK versus the four-flush river - AQo

[StellarWind]

Party 5/10 6-max (5-handed)

Hero is UTG with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The river board is 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. You have been betting the entire way and BB is calling you down. Villain is 51/1.6 over 600 hands but he doesn't defend the BB nearly as often as you might expect. He is loose and extremely passive on the flop, somewhat aggressive on the turn, and pretty aggressive on the river including quite a few raises and some checkraises.

River (5 BB): Villain checks, Hero ???.

[kidcolin]

so checks.

[slik]

i would think this would be an easy check behind. i can't imagine any flush nor any better hand folding.

[kidcolin]

[ QUOTE ]
i would think this would be an easy check behind. i can't imagine any flush nor any better hand folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the wrong idea. He's wondering whether to bet for value or not. I vote no, cuz I'm almost definitely folding to a check-raise, and I don't know if a worse hand calls more often than a better one does.

[MoDOH]

The question is if there is any value in betting. I would check behind but I believe that against some LP:s this is an valuebet as my experience is that they would have bet out the river had they had the flush. He probably has a small pair of some sorts and that means that you are good here rougly 75% of the time...

[TStoneMBD]

i definitely check this. even if villain doesnt have a spade theres a good chance he has twopair with this board. there is really no value in a bet because at this point many players fold pairs. seriously, i estimate the value of this bet to be about -.7BB.

[scotty34]

I think the amount of worse hands calling or better hands folding is very small.

Check. You aren't getting called by a worse hand too often.

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
theres a good chance he has twopair with this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is BB, so the connectors on the board don't make it much more likely that he has twopair.

[Stack]

I think (despite other posters so far) that you do get called by worse hands. He'd call you with any pair very often imo. It is very difficult to quatify how often you will be ahead on this board to make a bet +EV though. But you almost never make a better hand fold here (and I almost don't want to say "almost")

In favor of betting:

-Most time he has a lone pair, he'll call you (imo)

- Every time (or nearly) he has any low spade, he'll call you.


Against betting:

- Every time (or nearly) he has any low spade, he'll call you.

- Sometimes he'll have a two pair or better, and will call.

- He can c/r this river and we don't have enough reads to know weather he'll do it only with the best hand or not.

I think I check behind here. I would love to hear you own reasoning on this, as everything becomes so clear after readying most of your analyses.

[ QUOTE ]
In favor of betting:

-Most time he has a lone pair, he'll call you (imo)

- Every time (or nearly) he has any low spade, he'll call you.


Against betting:

- Every time (or nearly) he has any low spade, he'll call you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[Stack]

That was supposed to be a cut/paste, not a copy/paste. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I'm surprised no one had anything to add to this hand. I find it interesting.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I would love to hear you own reasoning on this, as everything becomes so clear after readying most of your analyses.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very flattering thank you, but if I knew the answer I wouldn't have posted the hand. However the discussion isn't making much progress so I'll say a few things.

1. I actually bet my hand.

2. It is a fact that good players have severely criticized me in the past for checking in similar-looking situations.

3. There are a ton of worse hands that will call. I don't believe the people who say one-pair hands routinely fold for one bet. This is one of the loose/bad fish. If they play as well as that I need a new game or maybe a new hobby.

4. I didn't get popped on the turn. That's a very good sign that he didn't already have me beat (two pair, set, suited spades). No guarentee of course.

5. Many players donk this river when they hit the flush. They have learned through experience that it's usually the only way to get paid.

6. This player seems to be an uber-trapper and that's very worrisome.

7. The board texture feels like I should have a spade most of the time. I wouldn't bet this turn with AK no spade. That's a good reason why he might not bet the river with a random spade.

[Nick C]

What I would probably do, most of the time, is check behind on the river, pessimistically figuring that Villain must've hung around on the turn because he had a spade in his hand.

But I'm looking at the hand now, trying to figure out which of his possible hands need to contain a spade (or two) for Villain to decide to chase (or trap) on the turn, and I'm not coming up with a whole lot. AJ? AT? KT? Well, that is 19 flush combos that beat you that maybe weren't folded on the turn precisely because of the spades on the board, but Villain's range is fairly wide here in general. Would Villain dump 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif on the turn but not 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif? Well, the queen on the turn could have hit you (as it did), and the third spade could give Villain an additional reason to fold, instead of calling on two consecutive big streets, if all he has is a pocket underpair and no spade.

JT is hand Villain will see the river with, with or without a flush draw, as is 65, and those hands now beat you.

I'm rambling, and I guess what I've ended up doing is trying to find reasons to check. I don't know if I came up with enough of them or not. But I do think Villain will fold a pair at least some of the time, I think he'll fold a flush pretty much never, and I have doubts about Villain dropping hands that beat you very often at all. Also, you aren't getting called by no-pair hands on this board, like you sometimes would on a more raggy, less scary board. So I'm thinking you need to be up against exactly one pair well over half the time to make betting the best play. I'm not sure how much over 50 percent you need, but you did mention that Villain likes to checkraise the river, which is another consideration.

Hmmm..a couple of things:

[ QUOTE ]
1. I actually bet my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bet isn't so bad if you're willing to call a raise. I'm not too comfortable with reopening the betting to allow a bluff and giving up the pot in hand where I could've just checked and won. Not with this guy.


[ QUOTE ]
2. It is a fact that good players have severely criticized me in the past for checking in similar-looking situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?? Do they fold to a raise? If they do, you can say their greed for 1BB may have just cost them 6BB.


[ QUOTE ]
3. There are a ton of worse hands that will call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. He will call with some one pair hands if he feels like calling. I'm also worried that he will raise with some of those hands. (see above)


[ QUOTE ]
4. I didn't get popped on the turn. That's a very good sign that he didn't already have me beat (two pair, set, suited spades). No guarentee of course.
6. This player seems to be an uber-trapper and that's very worrisome.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a wash.


[ QUOTE ]
5. Many players donk this river when they hit the flush. They have learned through experience that it's usually the only way to get paid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many players (especially types like this) will donk a mid-to-high flush out of fear. However, they will use a lowest flushes as a c/c bluff catcher and save the huge flushes for a c/r. I've seen it happen all too much where you value bet and the guy turns over the 2 or 3 of spades on a call.


[ QUOTE ]
7. The board texture feels like I should have a spade most of the time. I wouldn't bet this turn with AK no spade. That's a good reason why he might not bet the river with a random spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

See # 5.


Overall, I would check or bet/call although I don't think it matters much either way. There are 50% pair hands that he calls with and 50% two pair/flush hands that he calls with. This decision isn't going to make a big difference in your winrate IMO.

[Krytemaster]

Definitely check, he could have a low flush, str8 or two pair or slowplaying a high/nut flush as well. There are simply too many hands that beats you and too few I think he would call you with.

P.S. The soccer goal by Zlatan in MoDOH´s profile, so amazing... Maybe not the correct place to write about it though... D.S.

[NLSoldier]

I think everyone else=n00bs. I bet this about every time.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a ton of worse hands that will call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that I don't think that a live one will call down with certain hands on a coordinated board like this that better players would have given up on as hopeless. I would not suggest that this bad player will not call with say a pair of red Two's so that if you knew he held such a hand you could bet against him for vlaue.

However, when you say that there are "a ton of worse hands" that will call I suggest that everyone look at this very coordinated board and perhaps count just how many such hands there actually are here. Even though villain's starting range is huge here, out of that range you need to exclude all hands with a /images/graemlins/spade.gif in it, pairs that would have flopped, turned or rivered a set, drawing hands that could have made two pair or a straight there. How many worse hands are left with which villain can call. Even assuming he will call with Ace high or another pair, will he also call with King high or Jack high that otherwise missed.

We should be able to count the number of worse hands that reasonably call here. As usual I am being a little lazy by not doing so myself. However, I did run a Poker Stove analysis (which I agree is not necessarily the best way of loooking at tgis). You told us villain saw the flop around 51% of the time. I gave villain what I thought we would agree is a pretty reasonable set of top 50% of hands, put that into PT along with the board cards and your hand and came out with a final equity for you here of 53%. Meaning if villain willy-nilly called down to the river with all of his hands (in fact, he might have folded on earlier streets with his worse misses) you are not good here as often as you might think. But when I eyeballed some of the worse abominations that villain couldn't possibly call a bet with I re-ran the numbers and got a final equity of around 51%. This is getting close to neutral in terms of EV (we are assuming, of course, now that villain calls with pretty much all his remaining hands). However, if you think you could get bluffed out of the pot by a river check-raise, or need to pay off a better hand when check-raised to avoid just that, then I think the prospect of value betting looks a little worse. Plus, based on the above PT calculations you really need villain to call with Ace-high hands that otherwise missed such as A2 or A3o (no spades) to hit that slightly marginally profitable value betting situation. Would this villain do that?

I would likely check here and don't think you lose a lot, if at all, by doing so.

[colgin]

Do these PT numbers help anyone else think about this problem one way or the other? Thoughts?

[me454555]

If he's pretty aggro on the river and will bluff often, theres no way you can fold to a c/r. Given that, combined w/the low probablity he will call w/a worse hand and overall scariness of the board I check behind.

If your opponent was the more straitfoward, less tricky type, this is an easy value bet and fold to a c/r

[gaming_mouse]

Stellar,

I check. I think everything hinges on this point of yours:

[ QUOTE ]
There are a ton of worse hands that will call.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think there are some, but not a ton. This is read-depenedent of course. Given that he likes to trap, however, any value you have against worst pairs is offset by the times you get c/raised and must fold.

Even worse: You say he's aggressive on the river, which means a river bluff is at least a possibility. If the times you get c/raised were not enough to offset the value of the bet (and I think they are), adding in the times you fold the best hand should be, even if that happens very rarely.

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
I think everyone else=n00bs. I bet this about every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any reasoning? I do underestand that most of the time that he has any made hand worse that yours, he'll call. The problem is that he is a tricky river player. He may raise a better hand as well as a worse hand. What's your plan?

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think everyone else=n00bs. I bet this about every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any reasoning? I do underestand that most of the time that he has any made hand worse that yours, he'll call. The problem is that he is a tricky river player. He may raise a better hand as well as a worse hand. What's your plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's part of the problem here but the bigger problem, I believe, is that Hero's hand may not be good enough at showdown against vilain's likely holdings to warrant a value bet.

Per Theory of Poker we need our hand to be good around 55% of the time when called (due to the risk of a check-raise, which Stellar Wind's OP makes clear is realistic here) for a bet to have value here. But according to my PT analysis in an earlier post, against villain's likely range Hero is only likely to be good around 51% - 53% of the time here. If we expect villain to call with his worse hands then he is, of course, calling with his better hands as well. If my PT stats are correct then by definition Hero will never be good 55% of the time when called (which we are all assuming is pretty much by all of villain's hands, although I would argue he might fold his worst one or missed draws).

Now, I am curious if anyone wants to review what I did earlier and tell me if I got it wrong or am looking at this the wrong way. If so, I would love to see an alternate analysis or explanantion.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I am curious if anyone wants to review what I did earlier and tell me if I got it wrong or am looking at this the wrong way. If so, I would love to see an alternate analysis or explanantion.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where does your analysis account for the chance that a good hand might be stomping on my head by now? He didn't checkraise the turn and he didn't bet the river when the fourth spade hit.

The whole idea behind betting is that very often when I'm losing he will have made a move by now.

I don't think PokerStove is up to this job.

[ QUOTE ]
due to the risk of a check-raise, which Stellar Wind's OP makes clear is realistic here

[/ QUOTE ]
I decided not to payoff on this. It's only a risk if he's bluffing. I don't know whether he is capable of bluffing, but he doesn't seem like the type based on his statistics. His whole game seems to be oriented toward making good hands and then trapping and punishing his opponents.

Even if he is capable of bluffing it seems clear that he value checkraises a lot. I doubt I have the pot odds to call even if I have some reason not to trust him. Since I have no reason to believe he's bluffing the fold is clear.

Sadly I had to put this idea into practice. He did not show.

[baronzeus]

NH. bet the river. Villain 45/20.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls.

Flop: (7 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

River: (6.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP has 6h As (one pair, aces).
Hero has 8d Ad (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 8.50 BB. </font>

[istewart]

http://www.undp.org/osg/roar2001.jpg

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.undp.org/osg/roar2001.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

if you think my post is results oriented you really missed the point.

[istewart]

Your post was an example of one hand in which you bet a four-flushed board on the river and won. Added to the fact that you were out of position and thus do not need to be ahead 50% of the time when called, as the OP does in the original hand, and there really is no point. This hand does not show anything.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Your post was an example of one hand in which you bet a four-flushed board on the river and won. Added to the fact that you were out of position and thus do not need to be ahead 50% of the time when called, as the OP does in the original hand, and there really is no point. This hand does not show anything.

[/ QUOTE ]


im going to make one more arrogant reply and say that you still aren't getting the point. note that if you had replied to my post civilly and not like an idiot i would have given a nice reply.


stellarwind gave good reasons for why the hand was a bet and he was right. theres less than a 50% chance that your opponent has a spade for a multitude of reasons, including the fact that he's been calling down (meaning he likely has a pair with one of the spades), there are more spades showing so there are less in the deck, and the fact that he did not bet on the river. it's in fact much harder for someone to bet OUT of position because villain's check usually means "I have no flush but want to go to showdown"


oh, and the type of opponent who does a lot of calling will call one more even without a flush. see post above.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
I think everyone else=n00bs. I bet this about every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree nl. i am sick of seeing half the forum get this wrong.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think everyone else=n00bs. I bet this about every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree nl. i am sick of seeing half the forum get this wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

thank you.

[TStoneMBD]

i still say its a check and by good margin.

[Victor]

is there a way to filter pt for this scenario. a pair or better on the riv with a 4flush showing. i bet in this situation all the time and i think it is the only aspect that constitutes a profit in my game.

[TStoneMBD]

i was thinking about this and wish there was a way to filter it, but i dont think there is.

[ QUOTE ]
is there a way to filter pt for this scenario. a pair or better on the riv with a 4flush showing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know of a way either, but I will ask Pat in the tracker forum.

[ QUOTE ]
i bet in this situation all the time and i think it is the only aspect that constitutes a profit in my game.

[/ QUOTE ]

If value betting with top pair on a 4-flush board when you don't have the flush is the only way to show profit, I'm quitting poker.

[Surfbullet]

I bet this very often - especially against this type of opponent. There is value in a bet here, IMO since most worse 1-pair hands are calling, if they called the turn. We didn't get raised which makes it more likely that our hand is best...he didn't donk the river either meaning the 1card spade drawi s less likely. Sometimes we'll get called by a weak flush and lose, but often we'll get called by a weak pair and win.

Just because the board got progressively scarier doesn't prevent them from carrying through their calldown-plan.

Different pf/flop action, but same idea:

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Villain shows J/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Surf

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]

If value betting with top pair on a 4-flush board when you don't have the flush is the only way to show profit, I'm quitting poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

its likely the only way i personally make money at poker. my wr is somewhat low tho. perhaps you other prodigies have found ways to make money with other hands.