Buying Points and Related Issues/Sports Betting Theory Question

[YoureToast]

"Hypothetically", Team A is favored against Team B by 5. I think Team A has a good chance of beating Team B by 20 points. Therefore, I am looking to get action on Team A at a point spread higher than 5. Suppose I could bet on Team A, give 5 points at -110. How do I go about determining at what number I should get to increase the line to 7? Related, if I can get the line at -10.5, how do I figure what fair value is?

I'm looking here not for some sort of general "feeling" type answer, but more of a mathematical approach.

Syg? Anyone?

Check out the NFL Pointspread Ties thread if you haven't yet.

Part 1 -- Using Tradesports as example, you can currently buy Atlanta -5.5 for -105.7 (51+(0.8 commission))/49 meaning the wager price converted to a percent is 51.39% (518/1008).

Part 2 -- you can expect the game to end on 6 and 7 with rough frequency of 3.10% and 5.36%, respectively. This means the value of Atlanta -7.5, offered on Tradesports, is equivalent to (51.39%-3.10-5.36)=42.93%. Why subtract the numbers in entirety? Because the new line moves over these numbers in whole and shifts 6 and 7 directly from win column to loss column.

Part 3 -- therefore if you made buy offers of 42.0 or fewer (or market making offers of 42.5 or fewer) you will be paying a lower amount for the -7.5 bet than you would for the -5.5 bet. (ed:) Non-market making offer of 42 is equivalent to (42.0+(0.8 comm))/(58.0+(42.0+(0.8 comm)) or 42.46%, below the relative expected frequency of 42.93%.

I don't compute values for landing on 8, 9 & 10 so can't estimate the Atlanta -10.5 contract on TS, nor is the market for that contract particularly liquid.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
Check out the NFL Pointspread Ties thread if you haven't yet.

Part 1 -- Using Tradesports as example, you can currently buy Atlanta -5.5 for -105.7 (51+(0.8 commission))/49 meaning the wager price converted to a percent is 51.39% (518/1008).

Part 2 -- you can expect the game to end on 6 and 7 with rough frequency of 3.10% and 5.36%, respectively. This means the value of Atlanta -7.5, offered on Tradesports, is equivalent to (51.39%-3.10-5.36)=42.93%. Why subtract the numbers in entirety? Because the new line moves over these numbers in whole and shifts 6 and 7 directly from win column to loss column.

Part 3 -- therefore if you made buy offers of 42.0 or fewer (or market making offers of 42.5 or fewer) you will be paying a lower amount for the -7.5 bet than you would for the -5.5 bet. (ed:) Non-market making offer of 42 is equivalent to (42.0+(0.8 comm))/(58.0+(42.0+(0.8 comm)) or 42.46%, below the relative expected frequency of 42.93%.

I don't compute values for landing on 8, 9 & 10 so can't value the Atlanta -10.5 contract on TS, nor is the market for that contract particularly liquid.

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Thanks Syg.

First, what makes you think I'm talking about the Atlanta game? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Second, the fact that its not liquid is a good reason to pay attention to it -- ie. theres a greater likelihood of finding real value.

Third, are the tools available to determine how often a team wins by more than 10 when that team is favored by 5 or 6 or 7? I know you've done this analysis on the small lines (ie. how often does a team win and not cover when the spread is 2 or 3, etc.) and that is the basis of your playing so many moneylines. But if we had the closing lines and final scores of all NFL games, we should be able to run an analysis that addresses my specific question. No?

[JTrout]

Question-

Your #s indicate 8.46% of the time NFL games end on 6 or 7.

Would this % be significantly different on games favored by 5 or 5.5, compared to all games?

My thinking is that games closer to even have 2 strong chances of ending on 6 or 7 (favored team and underdog).

And games with a 5+ pt. favorite have 1 strong chance of ending on 6 or 7 (favored team only).


It may or may not be a significant difference.
And I don't have such info available to me.

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Second, the fact that its not liquid is a good reason to pay attention to it -- ie. theres a greater likelihood of finding real value.

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Well yes, but not in this particular case because of time issues. The buy-sell spread for -10.5 is 28-40 while the spread for -7.5 is 41-43. Obviously there's no harm in putting up a buy offer somewhere in the middle and hoping a fish jumps the hook but you may be wasting your time while the favorable prices for -7.5 escape you.

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Third, are the tools available to determine how often a team wins by more than 10 when that team is favored by 5 or 6 or 7? I know you've done this analysis on the small lines (ie. how often does a team win and not cover when the spread is 2 or 3, etc.) and that is the basis of your playing so many moneylines. But if we had the closing lines and final scores of all NFL games, we should be able to run an analysis that addresses my specific question. No?

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Not really, because the problem you run into is games at spread of 14 end on 10 with a lot more frequency than games with spread of Even, for example. My analysis is based on frequency of certain end results for games with proximate spreads to that result. 3.10% and 5.36% mean very little to a game with spread 17. I believe I may be addressing your point JTrout, which you're correct about.

[YoureToast]

I'm not interested for this purpose in knowing how often a game ends on a particular number; the query I'm seeking is one that would tell me this: In games in which a team covered a 6 pt spread, how often did that team win by at least 10 pts? 11 pts? 12 pts? Etc. If this question could be answered, I could then generate an approach to determining whether there is value in higher spreads.

So, maybe I'm not reading you correctly, but I don't think your response addresses that, does it?

Ah, I see where you're going with this. I don't have direct research on this type of thing. However, if it means anything, there are wagers called "challenge" bets or pleasers in which you give 6 points for 2+ games and get increased odds. Having done a little research on these recently, there is very little value to them. 6 points as it turns out is a lot of points to give in almost any situation.

the question seems to be somewhat related to point spreads vs. moneyline. i know he's asking something different i.e. point spread that is different from the line or a zero point spread (traditional money line).

i have looked for articles about point spread vs. money line and never found it... for college football in particular, i wonder if 1) the distribution of possible scores is normal??; 2) huge standard deviation of results meaning the tails can be quite large i.e. should a 6 point spread in NFL have same moneyline as 6 point spread in NCAA. my thought is no, but not sure if this is reflected in the market. might start this as its own thread.

[ThomasJoe]

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"Hypothetically", Team A is favored against Team B by 5. I think Team A has a good chance of beating Team B by 20 points. Therefore, I am looking to get action on Team A at a point spread higher than 5. Suppose I could bet on Team A, give 5 points at -110. How do I go about determining at what number I should get to increase the line to 7? Related, if I can get the line at -10.5, how do I figure what fair value is?

I'm looking here not for some sort of general "feeling" type answer, but more of a mathematical approach.

Syg? Anyone?

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In theory it is all based on probability. Another way to look at it is you are playing the pointspread plus the moneyline. In football if team A has been estimated to be the better team and the oddsmaker would go through a process of determing a number which would determine his estimate of the number which will balance the action, statistically this will be a median and not an average. To get to the number 5 he would have probably tried either 7,6 or 3 because these are key numbers and they also tend to balance the action. The "cigar smokers" then play the game at each other until it is determined that 5 is the number. From there they just will let you buy off of five, but will charge more vig. At pinnacle as I write this the line on SD at NE week 4 is NE minus 5 plus 102, minus 5.5 plus 104 minus 6 plus 112, and minus 6.5 plus 119. On the other hand SD is +5 -110, plus 5.5 -117, plus 6 -126, plus 6.5 -134. At THE numer (5) the juice is only a 4 cent line. but if you move it to 6.5 the juice is a 7.5 cent line.

The rams and giant game is currently NYG minus 3 -113 and the rams are +3 +105 which is a 4 cent line. Since 3 is such a key number the line at 3.5 is NYG - 3.5 +106 and rams +3.5 -120, which is a 7 cent line.

IMO the oddsmakers know the number better than anyone. It is their job and they are as much and expert at what they do as Warren Buffet, The math faculty at MIT, or the floor traders of the NYSE. They do this every day and every year and if they show weakness they either get smarter or are replaced.

So always assume the number is good and that you could not have better information that they do. They put out a number that is a very good estimate of the median, and please know what the median is and the difference between a median and an average. (especially for totals.

In baseball If the NYY are minus 210 on the moneyline and Tampa Bay is plus 190. Then the no vig line is NYY minus 200, which says that NY is 2:1 favorite or that the probablility that they will win 2 of 3 games is 50/50. If the line would be NYY are 180/+170 then the probability if NYY winning 2 of 3 is less than 50/50. but the probability of them winning 175 and losing 100 games is 50/50.

Back to the SD at NE game the money line is NE-210 plus 190. So the estimated probability is that NE wins this game 2 of 3 times when played in week 4 at home which I think is reasonable.

Football scores can be very volitale as we all know, that is why they have teasors, which are always sucker bets because the variance of the predicted score and the final score differ signicantly. This does not mean that the line was not a good number. All it means is that one team got the breaks or had an unusually good or bad day.

The bottom line to me is that if you buy off of points you are usually making a mistake especially buying off of a key number. To me this is wrong because the price is wrong, for the same reason that playing teasors is wrong.

Hypothetically your opinion that team A will win by 20 and not by 5 would mean that you know more about making a line than the experts and if this was so you would be having fun here on 2+2 but would be betting sports full time. All your really doing is having fun.

So theoretically you are never getting the right price unless you are betting with a friend with no vig. If you really want to know how to estimate the moneyline associated with pointspreads you can see the differentials at pinnacle if you have an account. If you don't get one ( I only play there I have no interest in them. But the main guideline is to move the moneyline in relatively small increments for non key numbers and when you move it on key numbers a reasonable amount as my example above demonstrates.

I may as well elaborate some more on this subject hoping to generate some discussion.

If I think a game is somewhat volitale (usually a total) I will look to take the plus and lay the extra juice as the sportbook such as pinnacle is stuck on putting a plus to a number that has a variance. Example SD at NE total is 47.5 under minus 102 over minus 108. I say here why not take under 47 plus 105. I think this play makes more sense. It makes me into a bookie charging them juice as I do not think that there is any difference from 47.5 and 47.

Hope this helps, gl.

[ThomasJoe]

Do you use tradesports? If so are they reliable? Do you use pinnacle? thanks

[YoureToast]

Thanks for the post, but I think you've sort of missed my point. My goal is to try and find good value -- in poker terms, an +EV proposition.

Yes, I do use both Pinnacle and Tradesports. My question really related more to Tradesports than Pinnacle. My example is from the Atlanta/Minnesota matchup this weekend. There is a line at TS right now that would allow me to buy Atlanta -10.5 contracts at +155. My question is: since the standard line right now is -5.5 -110, how do I assess whether -10.5 +155 is a good value generally (without taking into account my handicapping capabilities)? If I were playing on Pinnacle, I would agree that generally I could take their lines for the various point spreads and consider them fair in a vacuum. The real question is, however, how do I determine what would be fair if a sportsbook doesn't provide me with insight as to whats fair (ie. Tradesports)? I hope that helps.

Pinnacle and TS -- those are the two books I currently use.

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Example SD at NE total is 47.5 under minus 102 over minus 108. I say here why not take under 47 plus 105. I think this play makes more sense. It makes me into a bookie charging them juice as I do not think that there is any difference from 47.5 and 47.

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There's obviously a difference. According to your analysis, the buydown may be worth less than the cents you get in return but the potential loss of money remains. In addition, I think 47 is a relatively common total all things considered. No, a move from 47.5 to 47 (unlike 46.5) doesn't turn a win into a loss, but you still lose money if 47 hits.

[ThomasJoe]

Similar to Holdem this is a situation of incomplete info. Maybe one could start keeping stats and come up with an estimated value. Seems to me that would entail having access to a lot of data and the ability to write the software as well as the expertise in statistics to come up with the most accurate way to determine the EV. Also seems to be more than a one person task. And I think it is very possible that this is impossible!

Seems to me that sportstraders has simply made a more sophisticated sports book that is still just taking juice from it's customers and reducing it's own risk of losing. It does however give bettors another place to shop. Sorry i missed your point and maybe I still do, but i still think the goal of winning at sportsbetting is as impossible as it is to win at craps. And therefore I do not think there is +EV unless you are the one getting the juice/commission/fee or whatever you want to call it. Sports betting is simply a game with -EV and there is not much we can do about it.

[YoureToast]

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And therefore I do not think there is +EV unless you are the one getting the juice/commission/fee or whatever you want to call it. Sports betting is simply a game with -EV and there is not much we can do about it.

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Several professional handicappers and sportsbetters I'm sure would beg to differ.

[ThomasJoe]

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Pinnacle and TS -- those are the two books I currently use.

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Example SD at NE total is 47.5 under minus 102 over minus 108. I say here why not take under 47 plus 105. I think this play makes more sense. It makes me into a bookie charging them juice as I do not think that there is any difference from 47.5 and 47.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's obviously a difference. According to your analysis, the buydown may be worth less than the cents you get in return but the potential loss of money remains. In addition, I think 47 is a relatively common total all things considered. No, a move from 47.5 to 47 (unlike 46.5) doesn't turn a win into a loss, but you still lose money if 47 hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your obviously correct 100%. 47 is going to hit more than 3 out of 100 times which is what is being offered.

[ThomasJoe]

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And therefore I do not think there is +EV unless you are the one getting the juice/commission/fee or whatever you want to call it. Sports betting is simply a game with -EV and there is not much we can do about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Several professional handicappers and sportsbetters I'm sure would beg to differ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure they would and they always will. But the real money is going to the brokers. Why do the books advertise handicappers, imo most if not all are scam artist. As for professional sports bettors do you know one that you are certain is truly successful. We hear stories, see movies, buy books. If I could beat sports betting I would not share my theory with anyone, I would remain as anonymous as possible and not even get greedy. I would just do it. I repeat that sports betting is -EV unless you can become the broker and for me that has been by grinding out middles in baseball when I find numbers that put me in a no lose situation.

The reason I responded specifically to that part of your long post is that type of bet is frequently considered "no risk" by bettors. Buying up from 47.5 to 48 on an over bet is similar thinking. The idea is "Well, I can't lose the bet outright by giving the half-point." If giving the half-point is -EV vs the frequency of the number in question hitting, you're making a losing move in the long-run -- a change in outcome of +bet to push is not no risk.

I'm not even certain whether this was your thinking, but I'm trying to drive the point home nonetheless. Believe me I give points also but only when the point move is +EV from the "original" number.

[YoureToast]

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Believe me I give points also but only when the point move is +EV from the "original" number.

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Aha...So you DO have a way of determining this? (Well I know you did.)
So how do you make this determination? If that is part of your secret system, just say so and I won't ask again.

It is very, very difficult to grind out profit in sports handicapping, but there are some (few?) who do it. With increased competition among sportsbooks, it has become easier, relatively speaking of course, for bettors to clear profits because of more line offerings and lower wager prices among these many books. Pinnacle and TS alone have enabled me to almost triple the number of NFL wagers I make per year.

There are really no hard and fast rules, TJ. It comes down to situational calculation, occasional estimation, and very rarely subjectivity, ie whether I'm comfortable giving the points.

[YoureToast]

I've started to answer my own question. Here is what I have done. I sampled 3 games this week at Pinnacle at random for the purpose of getting a general idea of how line moves affect their juice. Starting with Atlanta -5.5, I move through 3 games and get the various differentials between the various juice amounts. Therefore, by doing this, I should get a good idea of how the "juice" amount should change by simply adding up the various differentials.

Here is how I worked it (numbers in parenthesis are the various differentials between the current line and the line immediately prior):

Atlanta lines:
-5.5 -111
-6 -106 (5)
-6.5 +100 (6)
-7 +115 (15)

Ravens:
-7 -108
-7.5 +105 (13)
-8 +108 (3)
-8.5 +113 (5)

Cincinnatti:
-8.5 -114
-9 -111 (3)
-9.5 -104 (7)
-10 +105 (9)
-10.5 +115 (10)

Based on this, for a line move from -5.5 to -10.5, I should expect to get an addition 76 "juice points" (ie. if Atlanta is favored at -5.5 -110, I would be getting equal value if I got Atlanta at -10.5 +166). I assume that if I picked three other random games with similar lines, I'd get similar results.

One pseudo-fallacy with this approach that I can think of is that the differentials are set by Pinnacle based on what they perceive to be the standard line. For example, I would guess that the differential of 10 for the -10 to -10.5 line move would actually be a little less than the number it is now (10), but I'm not sure about this.

According to TradeSports right now, I can buy a few Atlanta -10.5 contracts at +150. According to my analysis above, thats a little short.

Anyone else see any holes in this approach?

Two problems - 1) Pinnacle increases the vig when you move lines off the "original" number, and 2) Pinnacle sometimes assigns more line movement points to one side than the other -- to solve this, you need to average the movements of both Atlanta and Minny as they move from 5.5 to 7, and in all other cases. After that, you'll need to subtract the extra vig Pinnacle takes from problem 1.

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According to TradeSports right now, I can buy a few Atlanta -10.5 contracts at +150. According to my analysis above, thats a little short.

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Actually it's +147 accounting for trading and expiry fees.

[YoureToast]

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Two problems - 1) Pinnacle increases the vig when you move lines off the "original" number, and 2) Pinnacle sometimes assigns more line movement points to one side than the other -- to solve this, you need to average the movements of both Atlanta and Minny as they move from 5.5 to 7, and in all other cases. After that, you'll need to subtract the extra vig Pinnacle takes from problem 1.

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Good points.
Let me know when you've completed your analysis taking into account these factors. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

All kidding aside, I think we're on to something, no?

Yeah really. This is what you get when you just met a major deadline at work.

The problem is those TS offerings just don't get much action -- the value possibilities are all potential. I would even guess those very few who trade it on the other side are savvy bettors themselves.

[YoureToast]

After some back of the postcard analysis, my differential for the same 3 games increased to 82.

I reduced the vig for each set of lines so that the total vig for each game was 8. I essentially split the vig in half for each side.
After doing this, for each of the 3 games I chose, the differential was exactly the same on for each team (so no averaging necessary). Heres the numbers I came up with.

-5.5
-6 (7)
-6.5 (7)
-7 (16)
-7.5 (13)
-8 (6)
-8.5 (6)
-9 (3)
-9.5 (4)
-10 (11)
-10.5 (9)

Total = 82.

So for Atlanta -10.5, I'd need about +172 to get fair value.

Actually, if you're starting out from Atl -5.5 -110, you'll need +183. Here's why:

Theoretically, each cent move occurs as close to +100 as possible. For example, I think you'd agree a 10 cent line move from +100 to +110 is more significant than a move from +200 to +210. (edit: As another example), the move of the last 20 cents from +152 to +172 in your method does not accurately approximate the last 20 cent, near +100 moves from 9 to 10.5. As a result, the best way to accurately analyze an 82 cent move is by finding the percent difference between +141 and -141.

Continuing to the calculation, the percent value of +141 is 41.49% (100/(100+141); the percent value of -141 is 58.51% (141/(100+141). The difference between these two is 17.02%. The percent value of -110 is 52.38%. Finding the equivalent value of Atl -10.5 is then determined by performing 52.38% - 17.02% = 35.36%. As a converted money line value, 35.36% is equal to +183. (edit: (100/35.36%)-100 = 182.8)

[papilindo]

By TJ: "unless you can become the broker and for me that has been by grinding out middles in baseball when I find numbers that put me in a no lose situation."

I've been following this thread w/ interest and I found the above statment incredible. I've never heard of a "no lose" situation, at least from the bettors perspective. How is this possible?

[papilindo]

By TJ: "unless you can become the broker and for me that has been by grinding out middles in baseball when I find numbers that put me in a no lose situation."

I've been following this thread w/ interest and I found the above statment incredible. I've never heard of a "no lose" situation, at least from the bettors perspective. How is this possible?

[YoureToast]

Syg, I don't think this is correct. I'll think about it some more, but the percentage changes your referring to (which clearly valid theoretically) presumably are built into the Pinnacle lines I used. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding.

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Syg, I don't think this is correct. I'll think about it some more, but the percentage changes your referring to (which clearly valid theoretically) presumably are built into the Pinnacle lines I used.

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No they're not. If Pinnacle were actually offering a line for Atlanta at -10.5, the move from 9 to 10.5 would not be, as your calculations state, from +146 to +172. The 26 cents you are claiming Pinnacle is computing is based on the Cincinnati game, with spread 9.5, which starts near a wager price close to +100. A move from +100 to say +126 is worth 5.75% (I'm skipping the math this time). A move from +146 to +172 is worth 3.89%. These two 26 cent line moves are not identical. In your method, they are. A move from Atlanta -9 +146 to Atlanta -10.5 would actually result in a wager price of +186.5 at Pinnacle, not +172.

What you need to take out of this is all cent moves are not equal. I do like your work on the computations -- very useful stuff.

[ThomasJoe]

[ QUOTE ]
By TJ: "unless you can become the broker and for me that has been by grinding out middles in baseball when I find numbers that put me in a no lose situation."

I've been following this thread w/ interest and I found the above statment incredible. I've never heard of a "no lose" situation, at least from the bettors perspective. How is this possible?

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When a not so smart bookie likes to keep the line at -110 both ways on baseball totals it often comes up where when a total goes past +110 you can bet both sides of the game and win regardless of the final score.

[papilindo]

i'm a 3 year old at this ;~), could u give a more detailed example of how it would play out? i'd greatly appreciate it.

Let me give you another real time example. Washington is currently favored by 2 over Seattle. The Giants are favored by 3 over the Rams. When you move from 3 to 3.5 in game 1, the average cent move of the 2 teams is 25; when you move from 3 to 3.5 in game 2, the average cent move is 22. Ask yourself why that is.

Ed: And when accounting for vig increase changes, these two numbers become 24 and 19, respectively. An even starker contrast. You're right, Pinnacle certainly does know what they're doing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Ed 2: I didn't halve the vig adjustment as I should have. The numbers are actually 24.5 and 20.5, respectively.

[YoureToast]

Syg, I understand it....Thanks for the clarification. So instead of focusing my calculations on the number of juice points that change, I should focus on the percentage that they change relative to the opening line.

Basically, yes. The juice point change is a useful shortcut if most of the moves are very close to +100. Otherwise, percent changes are more valuable in all other circumstances.

Ed: On second thought, you should be calculating percent changes between individual number changes if calculating half-point values as you did, not all from the opening line wager price.

Ed 2: In addition, I'm willing to bet my Atl -10.5 +183 calculation earlier was wrong -- that the number is actually around +210 or +220 (ed: prob +195 to +210). -141 and +141 were not good enough approximations of the 82 cent move we needed to account for. I'm learning something here too. Sometimes it takes this thinking out of problems to reach the right conclusion.

[ThomasJoe]

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i'm a 3 year old at this ;~), could u give a more detailed example of how it would play out? i'd greatly appreciate it.

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Sure. 1. you have to have a friend who lets you bet baseball this does not work at a real book. The friend gives out lines but does not put a money line on a total he keeps is simple and says the line is NYY/Bost over under 10.5 -110 both ways. Now if I get a line at pinnacle at Bos/Nyy at over 10.5 plus 115 I would bet 975 to win 1121.25 and i would bet my friend under 10.5 -110 or 1100 to win 1000. So no matter what the score is I win either 21.25 or 25 (1000-975) This is drying up lately. The locals are starting to move the line by a half a run plus the offshores are tightning up there lines. So don't get your hopes up on this. But gl if you can find it. TJ

[papilindo]

i see, makes sense. u say u can't do it using a book but what if u find disparate lines at diff. offshhores, say right when they make their lines? might not there be some disparity that would lend itself to this strategy?

[YoureToast]

search for "scalp"

[SumZero]

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And therefore I do not think there is +EV unless you are the one getting the juice/commission/fee or whatever you want to call it. Sports betting is simply a game with -EV and there is not much we can do about it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Several professional handicappers and sportsbetters I'm sure would beg to differ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure they would and they always will. But the real money is going to the brokers. Why do the books advertise handicappers, imo most if not all are scam artist. As for professional sports bettors do you know one that you are certain is truly successful. We hear stories, see movies, buy books. If I could beat sports betting I would not share my theory with anyone, I would remain as anonymous as possible and not even get greedy. I would just do it. I repeat that sports betting is -EV unless you can become the broker and for me that has been by grinding out middles in baseball when I find numbers that put me in a no lose situation.

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This is no different than hold'em. If you have the skills and play at the right tables/sports books than it should be +EV. If you don't, it will be -EV. The house/casino/sports books will always be the big winners if properly played/run, but that doesn't mean that you can't be a successful +EV player at hold'em, sports betting, or both (although I agree that many people who think they are +EV at both of the above are actually lucky -EV players).