Pot odds... trying to make easy?

OK, I have the general jist of hand odds and pot odds, but never really FULLY understood them... so I'm hoping I can get a little help here.

I can figure out the odds of making my hand easily, take the outs, and x2 for 1 card, and x4 to see two cards and that's the % I'll make my hand. I understand that.

I also understand, that if there's $2 already in the pot, and the bet to me is $1 then I'm getting 3-1 on my money, right?

But now, I'm getting a fraction vs a percentage. SO, if I'm getting 3-1 on my money, can I then convert that to 25%? And base my decision on whether I have a 25% or more chance of hitting? This decision is based entirely upon the odds and nothing else.

Cheers.

You could do that. I admit that I considered it when I learned how to figure out drawing %. I just find that it's more commonplace and easier to convert the drawing percentage into a fraction ie)The 20% flush draw on the turn has 80/20 or 4/1 drawing odds. If you want to figure out the percentage for pot odds, then this would get annoying. What percentage of the total pot after you call are you contributing? This would almost always be something different and require more math. From experience you will memorize the drawing odds for 9outs,5outs, etc, but the pot odd percentages will rarely be the same time and time again.

[Chr]

Yes, you can convert your potodds to % exactly as you did.

But you are making things difficult for yourself. Forget percentages and calculate in odds terms only. Count your outs and translate that into odds. If you have 9 outs, you are 1:4 underdog to make your hand with one card to come and can compare directly to the potodds.

If you cant remember the odds for the number of outs, then write down the the odds for outs from 1 to 15 on a piece of paper and have it by your side when you play. After a week you will remember them all and you will never again use percentages.

Sweet, cheers all.

So in short, if I'm getting 3-1 to odds it's not enough to draw to my 4-1 flush with one card to come. Now that IS easy, great stuff.

Forumula:

((# unseen cards) / (# outs)) - 1 : 1

So, if you have 23 outs on the turn ( /images/graemlins/grin.gif ), that would be: ((46/23)-1):1 ... or, 1:1 (50%). 9 outs on the turn would be: ((46/9)-1):1 ... or, 4.1:1.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I have the general jist of hand odds and pot odds, but never really FULLY understood them... so I'm hoping I can get a little help here.

I can figure out the odds of making my hand easily, take the outs, and x2 for 1 card, and x4 to see two cards and that's the % I'll make my hand. I understand that.

I also understand, that if there's $2 already in the pot, and the bet to me is $1 then I'm getting 3-1 on my money, right?

But now, I'm getting a fraction vs a percentage. SO, if I'm getting 3-1 on my money, can I then convert that to 25%? And base my decision on whether I have a 25% or more chance of hitting? This decision is based entirely upon the odds and nothing else.

Cheers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your statement is a little confusing. Whenever a bet is made, I consider it a part of the pot. So if $2 is in the pot, and it's $1 to you to call, you have 2:1 pot odds.

If you meant that $2 was in the pot from the last betting round, and someone bets $1 this betting round, then there is really $3 in the pot and you are getting 3:1 odds on the call.

If you play limit holdem, one easy way to figure whether you have pot odds to see the next card is to figure the pot odds as an expression to 1 (i.e. 3:1), add 1 (making it 4) then multiply by your effective outs.

If the product is 45 or more, you can call. Or, working backwords, you need ~11 outs to call a 3:1 shot.

[ QUOTE ]


If you play limit holdem, one easy way to figure whether you have pot odds to see the next card is to figure the pot odds as an expression to 1 (i.e. 3:1), add 1 (making it 4) then multiply by your effective outs.

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My priority has been to memorize the odds, so this thread got me motivated. I, too, was using %'s too much in my calculations, so, as you guys said, will just memorize the outs-to-odds and go from there.

PS...I love it when you post, Binions...find minutes of my life being sucked away from staring at your avatar. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

It IS enough to draw with bad odds if you feel you can earn a hell of a lot more money if that card hits. For instance, if you are drawing to an open-ender, the villain may get scared and not put more money in... You're not getting more future bets, so the odds are accurate before the card falls. If the killer card for you looks like a blank to the other guy, though, or if the other guy is a fish and has no idea how to read the board, you know that if you hit that long-shot card you'll break him. In that case, it is worth drawing with bad odds (depending on how bad they are).

The main point is, don't necessarily go strictly on pot odds based on what's on the board. You have to know the player and implied pot odds (the odds that you'll get future bets- this has more to do with reading the player) and reverse implied pot odds (chasing a wild card only to have the other player deny you future bets because they see the danger).

[Dan Mezick]

The concept is to always make sure the "current reward is at least equal to the current risk." The reward is the current pot size, and the risk is the current bet.

As a simple example if you have 7 legit outs and 1 card to come your chance of winning is (7 outs/46 in deck) or .152 %.

100 / 15.2 = 6.57 so you figure to hit 1 in 6.57 times.

So the pot has to be about 6.6 times the current bet for you to consider calling, all other factors (read of opponent, etc) being equal.

The classic case is where someone has best hand now, with one card to come, he reads you for a flush draw (with no straight draw), he is correct, and he makes a pot-sized bet.

It's a mistake to call from a pot odds point of view. Why?

At that point the pot is offering 2-to-1 and you are making a "pots odds mistake" to call since the chances of hitting your flush is significantly less than 1 in 2 attempts. So even if you hit, you did not get paid (in full) for the risk taken ... making that bet a poor play.

If on the other hand your opponent bet no more than 1/7 the pot, you are an idiot to fold since the pot is now offering you more than the correct price to call. In this situation HE is the idiot to bet that small if he puts you on a draw, since his bet makes your call almost manditory.

A common mistake is to include outs that also help your currently-ahead opponent. When you do this you often end up calling when the pot does not cover the risk you are actually taking. Over a significant sample this adds up to a colossal leak.

Paying attention what your opponent will play in early, middle and late position can help eliminate this leak.