Raise the river?

[deepsquat]

MP is a maniac, this is probably the only hand he hasnt raised or 3bet pf. He capped K3s and 93o pf
and bet and raised every street UI. He is extremely aggressive with any pair or draw.

SB is a complete unknown.

River raise, likey?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (14 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>...

[Digs]

I really dont see sb folding a hand that beats you here

[kapw7]

What did SB have? flush or straight?
Anyway I don't like the river raise with middle pair against 2 poeple - 1 of them unknown that cold called all the way on a heavy drawy board.

[Poldi]

I think a very important factor here is if SB was long enough on the table to recognize just how overaggressive MP is. This play can work if he wasnt otherwise its unlikely you ll get SB to fold a better hand. The turn card was very scary and he overcalled, either he was on a draw and is folding anyways or he calls the 2 and has you beat.
You also set yourself up to a 3bet from MP. He raises anything but if he got a piece he has you beat most of the time as the flush came, straight is possible, bottom pair made trips, he could have a pair of jacks.
You are not in a great position. I like your idea though, you only have to make SB fold a better hand some of the time to make this worthwile and this is possible if he is very new to the table (hasnt seen MP that out of line yet, probably not the case if MP really raised every hand).

The problem is just that if
- you are ahead: you win 1 or 2 more from MP by raising.
you may win 1 more from SBs overcall if you dont raise.

- you are behind: you MAY make SB fold a better hand and win 1 or 2 more from SB (although we dont know if that happens ever).
you may make SB fold but lose to MP in which case you surely have to pay off a Reraise.
SB calls and beats you

I´m not sure, I like the idea but 2/4 probably is not the limit where you can make SB fold a better hand. Straightforward poker usually wins, fancy plays like this often are spewing.

[deepsquat]

Good analysis Poldi, ty.