All this talk about PokerStars flops and no hard data

[thwang99]

Since there's so much debate now about PokerStars hands, thought I'd post this. I have a measly number of PokerStars real money hold'em hand histories. Out of 1,623 flops, 367 of them contained at least one Ace. The expected rate is 21.7% that three randomly dealt cards contain at least one ace. So for 1,623 flops, the expected number of flops that contain at least one Ace is 352. (21.7% is calculated by figuring out the odds of the flop NOT containing any aces, which is 48/52 * 47/51 * 46/50, then minusing this from 1. We don't worry about any hole cards, the whole cards can be anything. This doesn't take into account the very very small change in probability that comes about due to aces appearing in someone's hole cards and a flop being more likely dealt due to that)

Out of 1,922 hand histories, these are the statistics I've generated for them:

(Note that only data for hands where a flop was dealt and you
were dealt cards preflop are used. Hands where no flop was dealt
are skipped.)

Total hands you were dealt cards: 1921
Times a flop dealt when you were dealt cards: 1623 (84.49%)

When user dealt AK, flops at least one A or K: 10 (45.45%)
expected: 7 (32.4%)

USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 363 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
3 flush: 142 (39.12%) expected: 151 (41.6%)
4 flush: 39 (10.74%) expected: 40 (10.9%)
5 flush: 3 (0.83%) expected: 3 (0.842%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 15 (4.13%) expected: 12 (3.18%)
2 flush: 193 (53.17%) expected: 200 (55.1%)
3 flush: 18 (4.96%) expected: 19 (05.22%)
any pair: 47 (12.95%) expected: 61 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card: 207 (57.0%) expected: 191 (52.6%)
Pair: 123 (33.9%) expected: 147 (40.4%)
Two pair: 19 (5.23%) expected: 15 (4.04%)
3 of a kind: 8 (2.20%) expected: 6 (1.57%)
Straight: 3 (0.83%) expected: 1 (0.412%)
Flush: 3 (0.83%) expected: 3 (0.835%)
Full house: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00589%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000654%)

USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 110 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Underpair (to flop): 27 (24.55%) expected: 26 (23.5%)
Overpair (to flop): 20 (18.18%) expected: 26 (23.5%)
Set: 20 (18.18%) expected: 13 (11.51%)
Quads: 2 (1.818%) expected: 0 (0.245%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 3 (2.73%) expected: 3 (3.18%)
2 flush: 60 (54.55%) expected: 61 (55.0%)
3 flush: 2 (1.82%) expected: 6 (5.16%)
any pair: 23 (20.91%) expected: 19 (17.1%)
Hand user flops:
High card: 0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 67 (60.9%) expected: 79 (71.8%)
Two pair: 20 (18.18%) expected: 18 (16.2%)
3 of a kind: 19 (17.27%) expected: 12 (10.8%)
Straight: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house: 2 (1.818%) expected: 1 (0.980%)
Four of a kind: 2 (1.818%) expected: 0 (0.245%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)

USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 93 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Open ended: 4 (4.30%) expected: 8 (8.55%)
Double belly: 1 (1.08%) expected: 0 (0.531%)
Straight: 0 (0.00%) expected: 1 (1.26%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 4 (4.30%) expected: 3 (3.15%)
2 flush: 52 (55.91%) expected: 51 (55.0%)
3 flush: 4 (4.30%) expected: 5 (5.16%)
any pair: 17 (18.28%) expected: 16 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card: 54 (58.1%) expected: 49 (52.6%)
Pair: 33 (35.5%) expected: 38 (40.4%)
Two pair: 3 (3.23%) expected: 4 (4.04%)
3 of a kind: 3 (3.23%) expected: 1 (1.57%)
Straight: 0 (0.00%) expected: 1 (1.23%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)

ALL FLOPS SEEN BY THE USER:
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 53 (3.27%) expected: 52 (3.19%)
2 flush: 934 (57.55%) expected: 894 (55.1%)
3 flush: 64 (3.94%) expected: 84 (5.18%)
any pair: 234 (14.42%) expected: 275 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card: 847 (52.2%) expected: 813 (50.1%)
Pair: 636 (39.2%) expected: 686 (42.3%)
Two pair: 81 (4.99%) expected: 77 (4.75%)
3 of a kind: 46 (2.83%) expected: 34 (2.11%)
Straight: 6 (0.37%) expected: 6 (0.392%)
Flush: 3 (0.18%) expected: 3 (0.197%)
Full house: 2 (0.123%) expected: 2 (0.144%)
Four of a kind: 2 (0.123%) expected: 0 (0.0240%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00139%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000154%)

[GrannyMae]

<font color="red"> SO STFU, KOOKS </font color> !!!


http://users.telenet.be/eforum/emoticons4u/mad/boese034.gif

[Hung]

Pooh-bah!!

[HavanaBanana]

Of course Pokerstars knows what to be expected statistically, so the obviously make their hands statistically correct but lets the same person have the losing hand more often.! (S) /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

Here is some interesting stats from a Poll I just conducted.


Poll results

Which of the following statements are the most correct ? (Total Votes: 23)
PokerStars has a random fair deal and I am winning there
14 60%

PokerStars has a random fair deal and I am losing there
3 13%

PokerStars has a crooked deal but I am winning there
1 04%

PokerStars has a crooked deal and I am losing there
5 21%

PokerStars has a crooked deal and I have left that site intending never to play there again
0 0%


This means Losers are more likely to find the site fixed (No surprise there)

It means that 2/3 are winning players (Now that must mean 2+2 ers are the best players around by far!)

5/23 are losing and think the place is fixed and ! are still playing there! (This must mean 5/23 are dumb, so you got to figure 2+2 has either very bright or very dumb people attending, with few in between)

[lorinda]

5/23 are losing and think the place is fixed and ! are still playing there! (This must mean 5/23 are dumb, so you got to figure 2+2 has either very bright or very dumb people attending, with few in between)

On the plus side, at least they were honest /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

Lori