LLHE missed river bet

[Ralle]

Eighthanded low-limit hold' em game. MP calls, I raise on the button with TT. BB and MP calls.

Flop comes 3TQ rainbow. Checked to me, I bet, BB folds, MP raises, I re-raise, MP calls.

Turn is an 8, four suits on the board. MP checks, I bet, MP calls.

River brings a K, for a 3TQ8K board. MP bets, I call.

Afterwards I realized this was a mistake. I now believe I definitely should have raised since I think that there is only one hand he could possibly have held, and I beat that one. Can you see which hand it is? (Or am I wrong? Could he have had more than one hand?)

Also, was I right to re-raise on the flop? Or should I have waited and tried to get in a raise on the turn instead?

[Bob T.]

Four hands, KK, QQ, AJ, and J9.

Because it is now headsup, I would have waited, and raised the turn, instead of reraising. If I was in first position, I would reraise the flop, and bet the turn. Actually, I would reraise the flop and bet the turn with a lot weaker hand than this, if I am giving up position.

Given that he check called the turn, I think that he probably had a pair of queens on the flop, I think KQ is his most likely holding, and he just made two pair on the river. I would raise the river, and expect to get pair off. If he reraises, I probably make a crying call.

[Ed Miller]

I think you have a clear river raise. AJ is unlikely... as is a bigger set. Looks like your opponent just hit his kicker.

[CrackerZack]

I agree with this completely although I think its hard to be faulted for putting the re-raise in on the flop... the point is you put the re-raise in. Heads up I like to wait to the turn with position, if i'm sure I can get a check-raise (he won't 3-bet a draw and check behind) I might try to check-raise the turn if I'm first to act. I think a raise on the river is warranted and will be paid off. I'm not sure what he would've had as opening in MP I would raise, AJ, KQ and if I decided to play KTs I would raise also. There isn't too much I would see myself open-limping with there unless the back-end of the table was really loose for 1-bet.

[Ralle]

The hands that would beat me are AJ, J9, KK and QQ. All of these are possible preflop, but he would have bet or re-raised with KK or QQ pre-flop. Since he check-raised on the flop we can rule out AJ. With J9 he would have either bet out or check-raised on the turn. So the only reasonable conclusion is that his hand is inferior to mine. I made a mistake not raising on the river. :-( I think the reason for this is that I've recently been beaten a number of times by rivered straights, and was simply too afraid of this happening again.

Also, it seems obvious that he was helped by the river. His check-raise on the flop indicates that he has a Q (again, with an overpair he would've bet harder pre-flop), or a straight draw with KJ (J9 not possible because of the turn). From this we conclude that he must hold KQ or KJ.

It turned out he actually had KQ.

[Homer]

The river raise is fairly clear as the only hand your opponent could reasonably have is KQ.

-- He wouldn't have gone to war on the flop with AJ (gutshot straight draw)
-- He wouldn't have slowed down on the turn with QQ (top set), and also he would have raised with this preflop
-- He would have raised preflop with KK

This leaves only KQ.

-- Homer

[biggambler]

[Homer]

If he had 33, why would he call the four-bet on the flop, check-call the turn, then bet the river? How did the K on the river change his hand or the hand he put his opponent on? Do you think he put his opponent on just top-pair of Q's and bet for fear of it being checked through?

I'm not sure why you think 33 is a likely hand...

-- Homer

[biggambler]

Line of reasoning for a LL player? I just flopped trips I'll wait til the turn to bet. Hero then bets. OK you want to bet I'll raise you. uh oh you raisded me back?!? Do you have 3 tens? Turn comes: I better just call. River: Really can't see a reason to bet here. So maybe you are right he can't have trip 3s?

[Nottom]

Even if he did have 33 it doesn't change the fact that hero should raise.