Hand I played terribly

[Justin A]

UTG is completely unknown. MP2 is 13/10/2.7.

(10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $5.
UTG calls, 1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP2 raises</font>, 5 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets</font>, MP2 raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)</font>
UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (11.20 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)</font>
UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 14.20 BB

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand I played terribly

[/ QUOTE ]
Spot on!

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is completely unknown. MP2 is 13/10/2.7.

(10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $5.
UTG calls, 1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP2 raises</font>, 5 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets</font>, MP2 raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)</font>
UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (11.20 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)</font>
UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 14.20 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm raising 88 in MP1 preflop at a table of unknowns. You'll likely cut down the field, and 88 has decent value 3-way.

The way you played:

Flop: I would seriously consider a 3-bet. It's unlikely that you are drawing to a split pot, and it seems as if UTG is along for the ride.

Turn: Fine

River: Fold. UTG suddenly comes alive when the board pairs on the turn, and MP2's turn call indicates at least an overpair.

[toss]

I also think you can 3-bet the flop and fold the river safely.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm raising 88 in MP1 preflop at a table of unknowns. You'll likely cut down the field, and 88 has decent value 3-way.

[/ QUOTE ]

There were two posters behind me. I much prefer calling in this situation because I'm likely to end up four or five way and not acting last.

[ QUOTE ]

River: Fold. UTG suddenly comes alive when the board pairs on the turn, and MP2's turn call indicates at least an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

So how about some hand ranges for each opponent?

[A_C_Slater]

Should the flop be played as if hero only has an OESD draw? By that I mean not betting into the raiser and causing him to raise out potential "customers" if you hit the straight? Or is it better to bet hoping he will raise to increase the chances of your UI overpair holding up and dodging possible overcard bullets? Of course, if he has an overpair a flop check/call is better. Which play has more equity? And can you prove it?

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I also think you can 3-bet the flop and fold the river safely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think folding this river is a bad play.

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm raising 88 in MP1 preflop at a table of unknowns. You'll likely cut down the field, and 88 has decent value 3-way.

[/ QUOTE ]

There were two posters behind me. I much prefer calling in this situation because I'm likely to end up four or five way and not acting last.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see. That line is probably OK, though I raise it up anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River: Fold. UTG suddenly comes alive when the board pairs on the turn, and MP2's turn call indicates at least an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

So how about some hand ranges for each opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Without a read, I don't see that UTG would lead twice with anything that you beat, period. Also, consider that MP2 raised preflop. Unless he had the other 88 or is weakly chasing overcards, then he is not on a draw and probably has you beat.

[toss]

I'm putting UTG on a flush draw or a 5 once he donkbets the turn. Then again that hand range may be much too narrow. MP2 either has overcards or a mid PP as his stats imply he'll fastplay a made hand. So folding the river is may be a bad play.

As for where you played the hand badly I can only think of the flop then.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm putting UTG on a flush draw or a 5 once he donkbets the turn. Then again that hand range may be much too narrow. MP2 either has overcards or a mid PP as his stats imply he'll fastplay a made hand. So folding the river is may be a bad play.

As for where you played the hand badly I can only think of the flop then.

[/ QUOTE ]

The river is what I was getting at.

As soon as I pressed the call button I realized my mistake. I think this is a pretty clear raise. UTG can have a ton of hands, including a lot of pair+ straight draw combos. The fact that he limped UTG and he's unknown leads me to believe he sucks, even though it's not necessarily the case. On the river there's 12 bets in the pot when it gets to me, and I think I'm ahead of UTG a very good amount of the time. However, the way MP2 played it, I think he's got a pair better than mine a decent amount of the time, and he'll most likely fold it if I raise.

I haven't done the math on it, but my guess is that this is a clear raise.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I also think you can 3-bet the flop and fold the river safely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think folding this river is a bad play.

[/ QUOTE ]

so is calling /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Justin A]

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I also think you can 3-bet the flop and fold the river safely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think folding this river is a bad play.

[/ QUOTE ]

so is calling /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

yep.

[toss]

What about raising the turn then if you think the pot is big enough to warrant a raise and knock out MP2. On the turn the pot is 9BB and it would be nice to make him fold as much as 6 outs.

[imported_stealthcow]

either 3bet the flop or raise the turn. you're hand is either the best now, or on the flop its drawing to the best. your hand has so much value that i think taking this passive line on the flop/turn is a big mistake

and i raise preflop. i want it 5+ handed for 2 bets, not 1

stealthcow-

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
I see. That line is probably OK, though I raise it up anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you mean you spew your chips anyway... your line is not wise Drew.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
What about raising the turn then if you think the pot is big enough to warrant a raise and knock out MP2. On the turn the pot is 9BB and it would be nice to make him fold as much as 6 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this and I think it has validity, but I think it's much less likely that MP2 folds a hand better than mine on the turn.

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm putting UTG on a flush draw or a 5 once he donkbets the turn. Then again that hand range may be much too narrow. MP2 either has overcards or a mid PP as his stats imply he'll fastplay a made hand. So folding the river is may be a bad play.

As for where you played the hand badly I can only think of the flop then.

[/ QUOTE ]

The river is what I was getting at.

As soon as I pressed the call button I realized my mistake. I think this is a pretty clear raise. UTG can have a ton of hands, including a lot of pair+ straight draw combos. The fact that he limped UTG and he's unknown leads me to believe he sucks, even though it's not necessarily the case. On the river there's 12 bets in the pot when it gets to me, and I think I'm ahead of UTG a very good amount of the time. However, the way MP2 played it, I think he's got a pair better than mine a decent amount of the time, and he'll most likely fold it if I raise.

I haven't done the math on it, but my guess is that this is a clear raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This has been a good thread on postflop play.

I will agree that a river raise might get MP2 to fold a higher pocket pair. But for the life of me I can't put UTG on anything that we beat.

What's his hand range? It would make more sense to C/R with trip fives, so maybe we can discount that hand. If he donked the turn with a heart flush draw, then he made his flush.

What are we putting him on here?

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
As soon as I pressed the call button I realized my mistake. I think this is a pretty clear raise. UTG can have a ton of hands, including a lot of pair+ straight draw combos. The fact that he limped UTG and he's unknown leads me to believe he sucks, even though it's not necessarily the case. On the river there's 12 bets in the pot when it gets to me, and I think I'm ahead of UTG a very good amount of the time. However, the way MP2 played it, I think he's got a pair better than mine a decent amount of the time, and he'll most likely fold it if I raise.


[/ QUOTE ]
Why on earth would MP2 fold an overpair to a raise from you here? The only hand the river made was a BD flush, and nobody's slowplaying 5x on the turn with such a coordinated board.

[sean c]

i want it 5+ handed for 2 bets, not 1

stealthcow-

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Why?

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
i want it 5+ handed for 2 bets, not 1

stealthcow-

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are getting a pot size equivelent to the odds of making a set.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i want it 5+ handed for 2 bets, not 1

stealthcow-

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are getting a pot size equivelent to the odds of making a set.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think five players is enough.

[Luv2DriveTT]

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i want it 5+ handed for 2 bets, not 1

stealthcow-

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are getting a pot size equivelent to the odds of making a set.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think five players is enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think implied....

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[sean c]

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i want it 5+ handed for 2 bets, not 1

stealthcow-

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are getting a pot size equivelent to the odds of making a set.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think five players is enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think implied....

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

vs the times your set doesn't win i still don't think five is enough but i could be wrong.

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
vs the times your set doesn't win i still don't think five is enough but i could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll usually make up 4BB by the river if you hit, with 4 or 5 opponents.

The times you hit and lose are, at least partially, balanced by the times you don't hit a set, but still win.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are getting a pot size equivelent to the odds of making a set.


[/ QUOTE ]
Huh?

Odds of making a set are 7.5-1. You are only getting 'set value' from a raise if there are more than 7.5 people in the hand. 88 isn't going to win UI against a lot of players so the best way to play 88 multiway is to see the flop as cheaply as possible.

88 is an excellent hand 2- or 3-way and often the best PF play is to raise w/ 88 if you think you can limit your opponents. Here, with 2 limpers already in and lots of people left to act, raising is not +EV.

[mtdoak]

Make it on the flop. Overpair+OESD? I'm not slowing down. AND you have 2 of the stopper cards for the straight.

[speirs]

Preflop I don't know if I would call or raise. It's close. On the flop I like the bet, hoping the pf raiser will thin the field with a raise. I will go to war on the flop and see what develops on the turn.

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you are getting a pot size equivalent to the odds of making a set.


[/ QUOTE ]
Huh?

Odds of making a set are 7.5-1. You are only getting 'set value' from a raise if there are more than 7.5 people in the hand. 88 is not going to win UI against a lot of players so the best way to play 88 multiway is to see the flop as cheaply as possible.

88 is an excellent hand 2- or 3-way and often the best PF play is to raise w/ 88 if you think you can limit your opponents. Here, with 2 limpers already in and lots of people left to act, raising is not +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

The second 1/2 of your statement is correct (don’t raise with 88 in this hand), but it's perfectly fine to raise with 88 pre-flop when you have 5+ players in the pot, because when the hero does flop a set of eights he will usually get that extra 2.5 bets that are implied nearly 100% of the time. This concept is shown is Small Stakes Hold’em’s “loose” charts… Ed recommends raising with 88 from late position in most pots. If you have 5 limpers to you, this is an excellent time to pop the field with a raise.

Lets get back on track, this is NOT what Justin A's hand is about, there are much more interesting things to discuss.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
The second 1/2 of your statement is correct (don’t raise with 88 in this hand), but it's perfectly fine to raise with 88 pre-flop when you have 5+ players in the pot, because when the hero does flop a set of eights he will usually get that extra 2.5 bets that are implied nearly 100% of the time. This concept is shown is Small Stakes Hold’em’s “loose” charts… Ed recommends raising with 88 from late position in most pots. If you have 5 limpers to you, this is an excellent time to pop the field with a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
You'll get the implied bets regardless of whether you raise PF or not. With the minor except of weak draws calling because of the bigger pot, raising PF doesn't have any impact on your ability to collect implied bets. In fact, raising PF cuts your implied odds in half, and doubles the number of bets you need to collect postflop in order to make a long-term profit.

As I said in my last post, raising 88 in LP is great if you can limit the field since it plays so well HU. But 5 limpers to you on the button isn't a very good place to raise 88.

Put another way, as a general rule, if you're pretty sure you can't win the hand UI, then don't put extra chips in before you see the flop. With 5 limpers, 88 is seldom going to win UI.

One could argue that you have an equity edge over 5 limpers, and you do, but much of the edge you have is based on cards you'll never see. For instance, PokerStove shows 88 with 24% equity against 5 random hands (each of the other hands having 15%). But 8% of the time, you'll make your set on the turn or river and it's unlikely you'll see either of these streets with 5 other players in the pot. So, really, you have a tiny, if any, equity edge PF.

[ QUOTE ]
Lets get back on track, this is NOT what Justin A's hand is about, there are much more interesting things to discuss.


[/ QUOTE ]
I realize it's hijacking the thread, but I think overplaying pairs PF is one of the more common mistakes I see otherwise decent limit players make.

[Justin A]

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I'm putting UTG on a flush draw or a 5 once he donkbets the turn. Then again that hand range may be much too narrow. MP2 either has overcards or a mid PP as his stats imply he'll fastplay a made hand. So folding the river is may be a bad play.

As for where you played the hand badly I can only think of the flop then.

[/ QUOTE ]

The river is what I was getting at.

As soon as I pressed the call button I realized my mistake. I think this is a pretty clear raise. UTG can have a ton of hands, including a lot of pair+ straight draw combos. The fact that he limped UTG and he's unknown leads me to believe he sucks, even though it's not necessarily the case. On the river there's 12 bets in the pot when it gets to me, and I think I'm ahead of UTG a very good amount of the time. However, the way MP2 played it, I think he's got a pair better than mine a decent amount of the time, and he'll most likely fold it if I raise.

I haven't done the math on it, but my guess is that this is a clear raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This has been a good thread on postflop play.

I will agree that a river raise might get MP2 to fold a higher pocket pair. But for the life of me I can't put UTG on anything that we beat.

What's his hand range? It would make more sense to C/R with trip fives, so maybe we can discount that hand. If he donked the turn with a heart flush draw, then he made his flush.

What are we putting him on here?

[/ QUOTE ]

You make some very good points here, and it looks like I need to rethink this river. I'm going to run some math while I'm at school today and come back to this thread later.

[mj12]

I 3 bet flop in a second to get a better picture of were im at and because I am most likely ahead and you have to charge them to try to catch, the raiser has a wide range most of which your ahead of but i am concerned about the cold caller, which could have u beat as often as he's chasing, so 3 bet to charge him/ define his hand

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
I'm putting UTG on a flush draw or a 5 once he donkbets the turn. Then again that hand range may be much too narrow. MP2 either has overcards or a mid PP as his stats imply he'll fastplay a made hand. So folding the river is may be a bad play.

As for where you played the hand badly I can only think of the flop then.

[/ QUOTE ]

The river is what I was getting at.

As soon as I pressed the call button I realized my mistake. I think this is a pretty clear raise. UTG can have a ton of hands, including a lot of pair+ straight draw combos. The fact that he limped UTG and he's unknown leads me to believe he sucks, even though it's not necessarily the case. On the river there's 12 bets in the pot when it gets to me, and I think I'm ahead of UTG a very good amount of the time. However, the way MP2 played it, I think he's got a pair better than mine a decent amount of the time, and he'll most likely fold it if I raise.

I haven't done the math on it, but my guess is that this is a clear raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This has been a good thread on postflop play.

I will agree that a river raise might get MP2 to fold a higher pocket pair. But for the life of me I can't put UTG on anything that we beat.

What's his hand range? It would make more sense to C/R with trip fives, so maybe we can discount that hand. If he donked the turn with a heart flush draw, then he made his flush.

What are we putting him on here?

[/ QUOTE ]

You make some very good points here, and it looks like I need to rethink this river. I'm going to run some math while I'm at school today and come back to this thread later.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm very interested in seeing the hand results.

Here's the hands that I can see UTG logically having:
Flopped straight that he intended to slowplay
77 or 66 played cautiously due to the coordinated flop. Then he comes alive when the board pairs
A5s
Weakly played overpairs JJ-TT

All of the above are based on the assumption that UTG is a semi-reasonable player. There is also the possibility that he is FOS, or that he holds a hand like 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif and doesn't realize that the paired 5 counterfitted his hand. If we feel that there is a good chance that either situation is the case, a raise may well be warranted. I'm still skeptical, though...we'd need to be right 1 time in 6.

[Jeff W]

Re: River

On the river, we receive 6.1:1 on a raise. To justify raising, 1/7.1 times we have to satisfy the parlay that UTG has a worse hand than 88 and MP2 folds.

Lets call the probability that UTG has a worse hand P(A) and MP2 folds P(B).

If P(A)*P(B)&gt;1/7.1, then EV&gt;0.

Plugging in some numbers:

If P(A)=.376 and P(B)=.376, then EV&gt;0.
If P(A)=.5, then we need P(B)&gt;.28 for EV&gt;0.
If P(A)=.25, then we need P(B)&gt;.56 for EV&gt;0.

I don't know. It still looks close to me. I don't think I would raise in the heat of battle. MP2's WtSD over a decent sample size could swing my decision.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm very interested in seeing the hand results.

Here's the hands that I can see UTG logically having:
Flopped straight that he intended to slowplay
77 or 66 played cautiously due to the coordinated flop. Then he comes alive when the board pairs
A5s
Weakly played overpairs JJ-TT

All of the above are based on the assumption that UTG is a semi-reasonable player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's an assumption that we shouldn't be making. There just aren't that many hands that a reasonable player will play like this. I just got a strong feeling when he bet the turn that he was a total donk and that I was likely ahead of him.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Re: River

On the river, we receive 6.1:1 on a raise. To justify raising, 1/7.1 times we have to satisfy the parlay that UTG has a worse hand than 88 and MP2 folds.

Lets call the probability that UTG has a worse hand P(A) and MP2 folds P(B).

If P(A)*P(B)&gt;1/7.1, then EV&gt;0.

Plugging in some numbers:

If P(A)=.376 and P(B)=.376, then EV&gt;0.
If P(A)=.5, then we need P(B)&gt;.28 for EV&gt;0.
If P(A)=.25, then we need P(B)&gt;.56 for EV&gt;0.

I don't know. It still looks close to me. I don't think I would raise in the heat of battle. MP2's WtSD over a decent sample size could swing my decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeff thanks for saving me the trouble, this is perfect. If I had to guess I'd say that P(A) is about 40%. So that means I need to get MP2 to fold more than 35% of the time that he has me beat. I think the way the hand played out and based on my read of MP2, we easily satisfy this with a raise. I think he folds here &gt; 50% of the time.

Edit/ This really comes down to reads on each player after we see the math that Jeff did. The read I'm fairly sure of is that MP2 will fold most hands that beat mine here. I'm willing to hear other opinions on the read of the unknown UTG. At the time I just felt like my hand was better than his a good portion of the time.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he folds here &gt; 50% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]
I'm still having a hard time understanding where you come up with this number? What makes you think MP2 would fold an overpair here? What do you think he puts you on that he's not beating?

The fact that MP2 has position on us is very important here. Because of this, I would not 3-bet the flop. He most likely has a bigger pair. UTG's turn bet is VERY strange. It could be 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, but I'm guessing it's a strong hand. I think it's a pretty bad play, considering he could have checked and one of you almost certainly would have bet. Regardless, I think UTG has at least a 5 and maybe more. You have shown strength, but he doesn't care. I would fold the turn and watch MP2 call down with his QQ.

[surfdoc]

I think that the preflop play and river play have been discussed at length but I haven't really seen much discussion regarding the flop. I just skimmed the entire thread and nobody at least mentioned a flop checkraise. You have excellent relative position to the pfr and I although I can see your desire to lead and have him raise to protect your hand I am not convinced this will help you in a raised pot.

With his ultratight stats he will also often only be raising you with a better hand and you really don't have any outs to clean up. (except maybe your 2 8s when someone folds their gutshot to a 9) I think a CR with the entire field trapped would be a reasonable play and if the pfr 3 bets you can be quite certain he doesn't have just overcards as it is really a rare player who 3 bets this flop with AK. You will also get the same protection if he 3 bets and all the fish caught in between will have to wonder if they are getting capped when it comes back to you. It will also be easy to get away from your hand if you miss.

Since nobody mentioned this line my guess is there is a flaw I am not seeing so feel free to explain why a flop lead is best.

[baronzeus]

i would raise the turn here...get it HU and bet the river. i honestly think MP2 has an overpair and if it's 99-JJ you can get him to fold most likely.

i dunno, utg's donkbet on the turn was awesome for you

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm very interested in seeing the hand results.

Here's the hands that I can see UTG logically having:
Flopped straight that he intended to slowplay
77 or 66 played cautiously due to the coordinated flop. Then he comes alive when the board pairs
A5s
Weakly played overpairs JJ-TT

All of the above are based on the assumption that UTG is a semi-reasonable player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's an assumption that we shouldn't be making. There just aren't that many hands that a reasonable player will play like this. I just got a strong feeling when he bet the turn that he was a total donk and that I was likely ahead of him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume, then, that UTG was indeed full of [censored], and that MP2 had you beat.

Man - trying to read this UTG nimrod is driving me nuts.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]

Man - trying to read this UTG nimrod is driving me nuts.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think his hand is more important than my read on MP2, and there doesn't seem to be a consensus on what he has.

[baronzeus]

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Man - trying to read this UTG nimrod is driving me nuts.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think his hand is more important than my read on MP2, and there doesn't seem to be a consensus on what he has.

[/ QUOTE ]

any 7, any 6, any 5, any 8, any 4, any flush draw, any gutshot.

sound good for a range from an unknown?

[Justin A]

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Man - trying to read this UTG nimrod is driving me nuts.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think his hand is more important than my read on MP2, and there doesn't seem to be a consensus on what he has.

[/ QUOTE ]

any 7, any 6, any 5, any 8, any 4, any flush draw, any gutshot.

sound good for a range from an unknown?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is along the lines that I was thinking. I think a lot of posters give him too much credit. As to your other post where you mentioned raising the turn instead, I really don't think an overpair folds the turn on that board when I raise. I think the only chance I have of folding out a better hand is on the river.

[baronzeus]

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Man - trying to read this UTG nimrod is driving me nuts.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think his hand is more important than my read on MP2, and there doesn't seem to be a consensus on what he has.

[/ QUOTE ]

any 7, any 6, any 5, any 8, any 4, any flush draw, any gutshot.

sound good for a range from an unknown?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is along the lines that I was thinking. I think a lot of posters give him too much credit. As to your other post where you mentioned raising the turn instead, I really don't think an overpair folds the turn on that board when I raise. I think the only chance I have of folding out a better hand is on the river.

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my biggest worry by far is that a scare card (like a J or something) will hit and UTG will stop betting. then im screwed--but if you don't think you can fold an overpair on the turn theres no point in raising IMO. just call and hope to hit a straight or a FH or that UTG bets again.

[TStoneMBD]

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I just skimmed the entire thread and nobody at least mentioned a flop checkraise

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yah i was thinking the exact same thing myself. i checkraise this flop. i dont donkbet it.

by donkbetting, you will only be raised by a worse hand which does not protect your hand. all this does is drive chasers out when you have alot of value in your OESD.

let the preflop raiser bet the flop for you and value checkraise the potential best hand but more importantly your excellent draw.

[SeaEagle]

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I really don't think an overpair folds the turn on that board when I raise. I think the only chance I have of folding out a better hand is on the river.


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Man, I hate to keep beating this drum. But why do you think he'll fold to a river raise but not a turn raise? What changed?