AQ under fire, ok to let go?

[Online247]

Villian is tight he's been around at least 3 orbits and has only raised 2 hands. This is the first time he has 3-bet and he doesn't appear to be a tricky player. He also hasn't taken any bad beats so he's probably not steaming.

The pot is small enought to let go right?

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Amateur is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Amateur raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Amateur calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Amateur calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Amateur bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Amateur folds.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB.

[Guruman]

given a legit pf three bet, I don't see many hands you're ahead of on the turn. Maybe a frisky QQ, TT or some other pp. Of course you tie AQ.

Against AA, KK, JJ, and AK you've got 4 outs and no odds.

yeah, I fold here.

[gharp]

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The pot is small enought to let go right?


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I don't think the pot's small enough to fold here. Call and river a T.

I would be making the choice between 3 betting and calling, and i think its fairly close.

I wouldnt fold here against any player.

Given your read, it's likely he has K-something. (What kind of hands did he raise previously?)

Still, it's close enough (You've no doubt got four Ts as clear outs, and the two remaining aces and three queens maybe as two more) to call and see the river. It is close though.

I don't even know if I fold to a river blank - this early in a session, I might be willing to pay a bet to see what he plays like this, if I think it might win (or save) me more later. But that's just me.

[Aaron W.]

Easy fold. Villain has AK very very often when he plays this way. Sometimes he'll have AA and occasionally you'll see KK. Once in a long long time, you'll fold the best hand. You don't have odds to draw to your straight and that's the only thing that can bail you out.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

I see some people saying fold. I never fold here, is it that big a problem? We have top pair top kicker heads up. I don't know...

[LoaferGee12]

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I would be making the choice between 3 betting and calling, and i think its fairly close.

I wouldnt fold here against any player.

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3-bet?
This is definitely between a call-down and a fold. 3-bet really does nothing here. I'm leaning towards fold simply because it looks like he has a monster and just wanted to get tricky. Maybe 1% of the time this is just an extremely odd bluff.

[LoaferGee12]

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Given your read, it's likely he has K-something. (What kind of hands did he raise previously?)


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I think given his read, the only possible K-something hands are AK and KK. Both of these cream our hand.

[istewart]

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I see some people saying fold. I never fold here, is it that big a problem? We have top pair top kicker heads up. I don't know...

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Yes. He 3-bet preflop so that's around 88+, AJs+ and maybe KQs given our isolation-type preflop play. Once he check/raises the turn on an AKJ8 board he has you beat every single time -- leaving you drawing to 4 outs mostly.

[Shillx]

C'mon man this is the easiest check behind on 4th street ever.

Edit - In a tough game you would bet here since they would bet again with a good hand. They are also the type that won't bet on the river as a bluff. The people you find in typical games will pull this play with the nuts or close to it and also bet the river stone cold with something like 99.

Re-edit: A tough player might also check/raise bluff you on the river after you check the turn through.

What are you beating on the turn...TT/99/QQ and that is about it. All of those hands are drawing to 4 outs or less. The pot is pretty small so this isn't a bad time to check and then call one on the end. We also get a free shot at some outs when he is setting us up with a c/r.

[LoaferGee12]

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C'mon man this is the easiest check behind on 4th street ever.

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Interesting

[istewart]

Fold to a river bet as well, you think?

EDIT: (UI)

[jason_t]

Check behind the turn and fold on the river if you don't improve, although I really only want to see a T.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

Ok, that makes a lot of sense. I am not too sure if I could come to that conclusion myself during a session. Which is probably a pretty bad thing then.

Oops sorry I misread the turn action, I thought it was a bet and a raise, rather than a checkraise.

NOW this thread makes sense to me haha

I still call down though.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Oops sorry I misread the turn action, I thought it was a bet and a raise, rather than a checkraise.

NOW this thread makes sense to me haha

I still call down though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Give a range for BB that justifies a call down.

[JackThree]

i'm suprised to see people saying check behind on the turn here, i'll start doing it though.

[aK13]

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i'm suprised to see people saying check behind on the turn here, i'll start doing it though.

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I'm surprised at how many say bet.

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I see some people saying fold. I never fold here, is it that big a problem? We have top pair top kicker heads up. I don't know...

[/ QUOTE ]

Since when is a queen top kicker ?

The only hands you are ahead of here is QQ, KQ and TT.

Check the turn, pray for a ten on the river. Check/fold UI.

[Bankuri]

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I see some people saying fold. I never fold here, is it that big a problem? We have top pair top kicker heads up. I don't know...

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Since when is a queen top kicker ?

The only hands you are ahead of here is QQ, KQ and TT.

Check the turn, pray for a ten on the river. Check/fold UI.

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Q is top kicker because if I had a higher 'kicker' I wouldn't have a pair anymore.

[Absolution]

Umm, you just picked up probably 4 clean outs and are now getting 8-1 + implied on your call. It's worth seeing the river here.

[Redd]

Would either Shillx or Jason be able to explain why the turn check doesn't look like QQ/TT that got scared when yet another overcard hit? IMO most Villains will pay off with them at this level.

[POKhER]

Alot of people saying call eh? They must think we're ahead of a "NON TRICKY TIGHT PLAYER WHO HAS RAISED TWO HANDS IN 3Orbits(30Hands)"

We're behind:
AA, JJ, AK, KK, We split with AQ.

We're ahead of:
AT, QQ

You guys want to call getting 7:1(On the call back to us) with a ten to one draw?

Its debateable, but im happy to fold. Donk betting the turn may not have been such a good idea either unless hes weak/tight and you could get a free SD(After he calls and then checks to you).

I think many of you are thinking along the lines of:
"Ah we already put 1 bet in, we may aswell call now for a extra 1bb and see the river, its only one bet after all".

Remeber 2BB/100 is ok winrate... You just lost one by calling.

edit: just noticed you got check raised, Ummm yeh i fold. If you do spike a straight you'll get paid off so a call maybe justified.... However i think its -EV to call here in the long run? We hit in 1 in 11.5 times(10.5 to 1) we'd need to make up ALOT OF BBS.

[Absolution]

I think it's close. We win an extra bet on the end when the T comes. We are about 25% to win against your range.

[RatFink]

I've been doing more of this, so I want to just put my thoughts out there to see if the reasons why I've checked behind on the turn are right.

1. I don't beat much that three-bets PF.
2. What I do beat, he will bet at me on river if I check behind on turn.
3. What I do not beat currently I get a free card with which I may be able to raise the eventual river bet.
4. If I call river UI, I've seen the showdown for 1 bet rather than folding to CR on turn or paying 2 bets.

I would've raised after that flop, then cursed like the sailor I am after that K hit the turn.

Definitely would've checked through after that turn card (since KK and AK are 2 of your likely hands to 3-bet preflop), then called on river (raise if 10 hit, bet if Villain doesn't bet river).

[DCWildcat]

I must be really off, because this seems like a very easy call down after villain's 3-bet on the flop.

[JackThree]

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I'm surprised at how many say bet.

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i agree with the reasoning... it is a pretty easy check behind from a player who will check raise you.

probably if i were to pay attention to the hand i would probably check, but i would mistakenly auto-bet this if i was on autopilot =( pretty bad...

[ QUOTE ]
I would've raised after that flop

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Yeah I just read through this thread and I was surprised no one else suggested this. It seems to me there's a ton we're beating on the flop here. 99, TT, QQ, KK, KQs, ATs, even KJs is possible. Losing to AA, JJ, AK, AJ, and that's about it that's reasonable, maybe 88? Why not raise the flop when you hit?

[milesdyson]

TOP PAIR GOOD KICKER RAISE RAISE RAISE RAISE RAISE FLOP AF = 3.0 TAG TAG TAG WE HAVE THE BEST HAND SOMETIMES AND IF WE DON'T HE WILL PUNISH US AND WE WILL CALL DOWN AND IF WE DO HE WILL FOLD YEAH THATS HOW WE SHOULD PLAY THIS HAND

[deception5]

Are you thinking that this player won't bet 99/TT/QQ on the river after we check behind? Or that based on the size of the pot, the likely hand distribution, and the likelyhood of one of those hands checking that we are too likely behind when he bets to call a river bet unimproved?

[deucesevenoff]

Just as a question...why hasn't anybody suggested raising the flop? It seems to me as though KK, QQ and JJ would also three bet pre flop and then (perhaps?) follow up with a continuation bet despite the ace on board. Nobody has even brought this up so sorry if I'm missing something basic. Just wanted to throw it out there.

[milesdyson]

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Just as a question...why hasn't anybody suggested three betting the flop?

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i'm pretty sure that suggestion was ignored because it's impossible. i could be wrong though. /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Just as a question...why hasn't anybody suggested three betting the flop? It seems to me as though KK, QQ and JJ would also three bet pre flop and then (perhaps?) follow up with a continuation bet despite the ace on board. Nobody has even brought this up so sorry if I'm missing something basic. Just wanted to throw it out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as raising the flop, think about the effect a raise would have on KK/QQ and whether or not that is good or bad.

Grunch: I think the fold is fine. Based upon what you saw (though a small sample), I think Villain has a set or 2-pair. I don't think you have enough outs to call in this small pot if behind.

I think you played PF well, though I guess some might argue you should fold even AQo against ultra-tight player 3-betting (I don't agree, and think you don't have enough info on this player yet anyhow to make that kind of fold PF). On the flop, however, I'm torn between calling (is this a WA/WB situation?) or raising, but I think the latter to find out where I am before I get, say, check-raised on the more expensive street.

[deucesevenoff]

miles- yeah sorry...just edited my post. I meant raising the flop not three betting.

deception- Does it have anything to do with encouraging KK and QQ to continue betting into us on the turn when he only has two outs? Seems sort of like the WA/WB (check/call-check/call-bet) line, just with a much larger kicker than we'd usually have when we take this line. Use it cause he's a tight player who three bet preflop?

Thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
TOP PAIR GOOD KICKER RAISE RAISE RAISE RAISE RAISE FLOP AF = 3.0 TAG TAG TAG WE HAVE THE BEST HAND SOMETIMES AND IF WE DON'T HE WILL PUNISH US AND WE WILL CALL DOWN AND IF WE DO HE WILL FOLD YEAH THATS HOW WE SHOULD PLAY THIS HAND

[/ QUOTE ]

Well,

FINE THEN, I'M WRONG. JEEZ.

Num Lock = What the heck does it do?
Caps Lock = Don't be a jerk.
Punctuation = invented for a reason. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

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Num Lock = What the heck does it do?


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Activates the numerical keys on the right of the keyboard /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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Num Lock = What the heck does it do?


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Activates the numerical keys on the right of the keyboard /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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Why, so it does. I'm sure on my last keyboard it didn't do anything though. Or am I just crazy?

[deception5]

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Does it have anything to do with encouraging KK and QQ to continue betting into us on the turn when he only has two outs? Seems sort of like the WA/WB (check/call-check/call-bet) line

[/ QUOTE ]

It is similar to that line. The only thing a raise will do anywhere in this hand is fold a worse hand and get raised (or worse called) by a better one.

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just with a much larger kicker than we'd usually have when we take this line. Use it cause he's a tight player who three bet preflop?

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Yup. His 3-bet and the fact that there is a J (and then a K) on the board puts us behind a lot of his hands that we'd normally be ahead of when we hit our ace. We'd love to keep collecting bets from AT/QQ/TT/99/A9s/etc.

[jason_t]

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Are you thinking that this player won't bet 99/TT/QQ on the river after we check behind? Or that based on the size of the pot, the likely hand distribution, and the likelyhood of one of those hands checking that we are too likely behind when he bets to call a river bet unimproved?

[/ QUOTE ]

When I glanced at this hand last night, my initial thought is that the math will say we are likely behind in relation to the pot size and should fold on ther river unimproved. I haven't done the math, but it shouldn't be that hard.

The player description kind of indicates he won't bet 99/TT/QQ on the river after a check behind.

Regardless, the turn is a clear check.

[deception5]

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he player description kind of indicates he won't bet 99/TT/QQ on the river after a check behind.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I was thinking this as well.

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Regardless, the turn is a clear check.

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Agreed